For the opening round of the playoffs, DraftKings is offering a six-game slate for Wild Card Weekend (starting on Saturday) featuring every wild card round game, as well as smaller Saturday and Sunday-only slate.
We’ll break down the top plays across the weekend in this article, but with a point to note players who might project well on one of the smaller slates but not stand out in the larger one.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Stud: Jayden Daniels ($7,500) Washington Commanders (+3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (50.5 Total)
While we have Daniels a close second in median and ceiling projection behind Josh Allen ($8,200), I prefer the rookie if spending up at quarterback. That’s mostly due to the difference in salary, but the upside is probably higher for Daniels.
That’s because Commanders-Bucs looks to be the best (DFS) game of the opening round. The 50.5-point total is the highest of all six games, and the three-point spread means both teams should be looking to attack throughout.
Beyond just the game environment, Daniels stands out in his own right. The big appeal is his rushing production. His 891 rushing yards in the regular season ranked second among all QBs, with six touchdowns thrown in for good measure.
The game script should force him to contribute through the air as well. While his overall season numbers through the air weren’t elite, Daniels made continuous improvement throughout the regular season. He had nine passing touchdowns through the first ten games of the season, and 16 over the last six (not counting the meaningless Week 18 matchup he left early).
On top of that, Tampa ranks 28th in points allowed to QBs on the season, by far the worst on any of this weekend’s slates. Daniels is an excellent choice for the Sunday-only or Saturday-Monday slates.
Value: Sam Darnold ($6,500) Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (47.5 Total)
Did Sam Darnold finally regress to his old self in Week 18, or is the Lions’ banged-up defense just that good? That’s a huge question heading into the playoffs after Minnesota was defeated 31-9 by Detroit in Week 18. That loss relegated them to the #5 seed in the NFC bracket despite their 14-3 record — and thus a road game in LA to start the postseason.
Editor’s note: Due to the fires, this game has been moved to Arizona.
This is a rematch from the only non-Lions loss of the season for Minnesota, which, not surprisingly, was also one of Darnold’s weaker games this season. However, on paper, the Rams are the second-best matchup for quarterbacks of the week, so I’m not especially concerned about the earlier meeting.
Given the tight spread and high total, this should be a solid game environment for both offenses. That means a heavy dose of Darnold, with Minnesota checking in at third in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the regular season.
Darnold also makes for some solid stacks, with one of the league’s best wide receivers, two solid secondary options, and strong pass-catchers at tight end and running back. Just getting the ball in the hands of those players typically leads to some easy points for Darnold.
This game is only available on the Saturday-Monday slate, but Darnold leads all QBs in Pts/Sal if playing that one. Another sneaky reason to roster Darnold is the optionality afforded by using players in Monday’s games, especially in cash. By building around this one, you have more chances to swap to contrarian lineups if you fall behind over the weekend.
Quick Hits
Josh Allen ($8,200): I have a hard time justifying the price tag on Allen this week. He’s priced mostly for his median outcome rather than his ceiling. Aside from an absurd two-week stretch where he topped 100 points combined, Allen has just one game over 25 DraftKings points (and that went for 28.42, which probably isn’t enough at his salary). The two big games were a loss and a close win over the Lions — this week, Buffalo is favored by 8.5 over Denver. He’s an extremely safe bet for a score in the low 20s, but unlikely to go much above that.
Lamar Jackson ($8,000): Jackson would be the “stud” pick if playing the two-game Saturday-only slate, with a projection within a point of Daniels and Allen. Like Allen, he’s a big home favorite to open the playoffs. Unlike Allen, he’s topped 30 points in double-digit wins multiple times this season. I still prefer Jackson with some Steelers run-backs, but he’s a solid play either way, especially on the smaller slate.
Justin Herbert ($6,000): Herbert is the best value option in the Saturday-only slate, with his Chargers slight road favorites in Houston. They’ve been fairly pass-heavy for the latter half of the season, which should continue into the playoffs. Herbert’s lack of rushing limits his ceiling a bit, but at just $6,000 in salary, it’s not hard to see him doing enough to win some GPPs. He’s a borderline must for cash games in the Saturday-only slate and a viable option in the six-game slate as well.
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