Are the Top Options the Top Options?
Jacob deGrom has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six starts, averaging a +4.50 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that time. Still, he has seen a -$1,100 Salary Change since his last start, potentially due to having a tougher matchup against the Cubs tonight. It’s concerning that he has received only 33 percent of Vegas moneyline bets, but per his recent advanced stats only Colin Rea has allowed a lower batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. Still, deGrom is facing a projected Cubs lineup with a .332 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), so he might not be a very safe cash option. In tournaments, though, he makes a fine play, as his recent performance stands out in areas and he could be rostered in fewer lineups than usual, since his game could be delayed (though probably not postponed) because of rain.
Johnny Cueto, on the other hand, is facing an Arizona offense averaging .290 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). He’s $1,800 more expensive than deGrom on DraftKings, but Cueto does have the more favorable recent peripherals. His 22 percent hard-hit rate allowed in the last 15 days is top-three tonight, and he’s allowing a batted-ball distance nine feet shorter than his yearly average. Unlike deGrom, Cueto is receiving a high percentage of moneyline bets, tied for second-most in the slate. Cueto might be the more comfortable option for cash games.
Follow the Money (or Lack Thereof)
This slate’s certified studs might be deGrom and Cueto, but Julio Teheran has averaged 7.1 more DraftKings points than either in the last month. He has averaged an +11.42 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last four starts, despite being relatively costly there. Fortunately, he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, where he has averaged an even more impressive +18.31 Plus/Minus in the last four games. Not that you wouldn’t be able to afford a top stack with deGrom ($10,000) or Cueto ($10,700), but Teheran’s discounted price makes it easier, and his Upside is comparable to theirs.
Plus/Minus, Upside, Bargain Rating, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
It’s hard to follow that spiel with a similarly discounted option, but Michael Fulmer also has a high Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel. More enticing for him is that his opponent, the Rays, have a .296 SO/AB, second-highest in the slate. He has failed to meet salary-based expectations in his two most recent starts — not so coincidentally at a time when his clubhouse has discussed limiting his innings moving forward — but his recent advanced stats, including a 194-foot batted-ball distance allowed, suggest that not much has changed since he averaged a +22.07 Plus/Minus at FanDuel in the five starts prior to his struggles.
Don’t Call It a Comeback
Eovaldi has failed to meet salary-based expectations in five consecutive starts, averaging a -10.30 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span. With a sudden Salary Change that has now contributed to his having a 99 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, his respectable 204-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is arguably worth taking a chance on despite his recent results. It helps that his opponent (San Diego) is averaging a .268 SO/AB, bottom-seven in the slate.
If you’re looking to take it a step further, you could potentially stack the pitchers in this game and direct your salary savings toward expensive hitters. Opposing Eovaldi is Colin Rea, who has allowed the lowest batted-ball distance of any available pitcher in the last two weeks. He has also allowed only 0.75 HR/9 in the past year, which means that his floor in this particular matchup, which is helped by playing in a pitcher’s park, shouldn’t be too low.
And Everybody Act Like They Forgot About Wright
Whether it’s Stephen Wright’s 191-foot batted-ball distance allowed recently, or the Angels’ .200 SO/AB, Wright seems like a forgotten man who shouldn’t have been forgotten. He’ll likely have very little ownership in tournaments despite the fact that his 26 percent Upside is the highest of any pitcher tonight. His average of 19 DraftKings points over his last five starts easily makes him an option to match or even exceed the results of any scheduled ace.
Traded Players Policy
Bud Norris is technically still listed in DraftKings’ player pool tonight. Then there’s this, directly from their rules page:
For instances when a player is traded (changes teams) after contests for a given Draft Group have become available, traded players will remain listed on their old team and will not accrue fantasy points. Where possible, DraftKings will add warnings to Draft Screens once it is known that a player has been traded and therefore ineligible to register points. Where possible, users that have traded players in their lineup(s) may be notified via email and/or other notification features on the site.
He’s an option at FanDuel, where he’s the only sub-$8,900 pitcher who has averaged over 35 points in his last five starts, two of which saw him reach his Upside. Also note his exit velocity allowed of 87.6 miles per hour over that span, which is 1.6 MPH under the league average. He has been very good, and there’s little reason to think that will change tonight against the Rockies, whose projected lineup is averaging .260 SO/AB.
Opposite Directions
Both Ian Kennedy and Jeremy Hellickson have allowed a bottom-five rate of home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the last year. Still, Hellickson has shown signs of improvement recently, allowing a hard-hit rate 14 percentage points lower than his yearly average. Kennedy meanwhile has seemingly gotten worse, allowing a batted-ball distance 38 feet farther than the next pitcher and a 51 percent hard-hit rate in the last 15 days. He has received 76 percent of moneyline bets coming in to this matchup, but a low-owned Phillies stack seems optimal for tournaments.
Sweet Caroline
Boston is implied to score 6.1 runs, 0.8 more than the next offense. What’s more is that the pitcher they face, Jhoulys Chacin, has averaged -7.1 DraftKings points in his last two starts. Go back a bit further and he has failed to meet salary-based expectations in five consecutive starts. But his batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks is tied with Cueto’s for top-five in this slate. The Red Sox’s projected lineup also has a .276 wOBA, bottom-three among offenses. You shouldn’t go out and roster Chacin, but you maybe shouldn’t roster a Boston stack, either.
Rewind
The Cardinals are fresh off of a night in which they were highly sought and the optimal stack outside of the Nationals. The results weren’t exactly what everyone was hoping for, but that doesn’t mean that you should avoid them altogether. Now facing the right-handed Matt Garza in a larger slate, Matt Carpenter (who has produced a 254-foot batted-ball distance over the last 15 days) and Brandon Moss (who has a .207 ISO Differential) should have less ownership than they garnered last night. If Aledmys Diaz (questionable) returns, he should be able to put to work his .548 slugging percentage and 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Some More Hitters
Salvador Perez, KC
Hellickson’s stunning recent play was noted earlier, but maybe you’re one who still cringes at the sight of his 1.46 HR/9 allowed. If that’s the case, feel free to roster Perez, who’s slugging .506 against right-handed pitching. His .080 ISO Differential is also top-five among catchers tonight.
Ian Kinsler, DET
Kinsler is slugging .561 against left-handed pitching, which already makes him an enticing option against Drew Smyly. Dive in a bit further and you’ll notice that Smyly has allowed a 230-foot batted-ball distance recently, 16 feet farther than his yearly average. His 94 MPH exit velocity allowed in that span is tied with Ian Kennedy’s for the highest among pitchers in this slate.
Justin Turner, LAD
Josh Phegley is the only guy in tonight’s player pool who has averaged a batted-ball distance farther than Turner has in the last 15 days. But Phegley has recorded that in only three starts — small-sample theatre — whereas Turner has averaged a 276-foot batted-ball distance over 12. And we have yet to discuss his .039 and .058 wOBA and ISO Differentials, both top-10 at his position.
Eduardo Nunez, MIN
Martin Perez, who has permitted only a 0.62 HR/9 in the past year, has recently allowed a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points higher than his yearly average. Now see Nunez’s .529 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching as well as his 52 percent Consistency at FanDuel over the last month.
Brandon Crawford, SF
If you’re comparing shortstops at FanDuel by Bargain Rating alone, both Crawford (99 percent) and Marcus Semien (95 percent) are in a tier of their own. But Semien is expected to hit ninth for Oakland, .599 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching be d*mned. Crawford is projected to hit fifth (cleanup if Brandon Belt or Buster Posey were unexpectedly rested tonight), all the while having a .151 ISO Differential.
Cody Asche, PHI
Asche has quietly averaged a 230-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days. Even more promising is that he now faces Ian Kennedy, who has allowed a 1.66 HR/9 in the past year. Asche also has a 75 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, making his .101 ISO Differential easier obtained.
Corey Dickerson, TB
Note Dickerson’s .240 ISO Differential, second only to Wilson Contreras’ among outfielders. Dickerson returned from injury last night and recorded two hits, which I would expect to continue, seeing as his .291 ISO against right-handed pitching is ranked top-six among outfielders in this slate.
Good luck!
