Happy Holidays! The NBA is offering up a five-game slate for Christmas Day, with the action getting underway at 12 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
The Christmas Day slate is always loaded with the top teams and players in basketball, and this year is no exception. At point guard, Luka Doncic leads the way with an $11,100 price tag. That’s a big number, but it’s ultimately not too big for him. He’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet like very few players in the league, and he’s been on a bit of a tear recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s gone for at least 70.5 DraftKings points in four of them. That includes one of the biggest games we’ve seen all season: a 45-point, 11-rebound, 13-assist triple-double, resulting in 94.25 DraftKings points.
Doncic will square off with the Timberwolves on Christmas, and it’s not an ideal matchup. That said, Doncic had no problems carving this defense up during the playoffs last year, and they’ve been a bit more exploitable so far this season.
Doncic also historically tends to save some of his biggest performances for the brightest lights. He erupted for 50 points and 15 assists on Christmas last year, and he had 32 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds the year prior. Ultimately, he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Value
The Nuggets were without Jamal Murray in their last outing, and it’s very possible they’re without him once again on Christmas. We’re still waiting on the team’s official injury report, but if he’s out, Russell Westbrook becomes one of the strongest plays on the slate.
Westbrook has continued to rack up fantasy points whenever he’s gotten the opportunity to play. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he piled up 30.75 DraftKings points in just 24.8 minutes vs. the Suns on Monday. He also moved into the starting lineup, so he could potentially play more if Wednesday’s contest is more competitive.
Ultimately, Westbrook’s $6,300 price tag comes with an 85% Bargain Rating, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.96 with a comparable salary and at least 24 minutes of playing time (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Mike Conley is not the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s projected for around 28 minutes on Christmas, making him one of the best pure values at the position.
If you’re looking to go even cheaper, Miles McBride brings some upside to the table at just $3,800. He’s served as the Knicks’ sixth man for most of the year, and he’s gone for at least 29.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. The Knicks have the second-highest implied team total on the slate (116.25), so he’s a reasonable target in the backcourt.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Shooting guard is one of the weaker positions on Christmas, with most of the top options standing out as subpar values. However, Bradley Beal could be worth considering.
Beal has become a bit of a forgotten man since joining the Suns. In his prime, Beal was one of the most formidable scorers in basketball. He averaged more than 30 points per game in two straight seasons with the Wizards, but he’s been relegated to a role player in Phoenix. He’s also dealt with a myriad of injuries, so he’s become somewhat easy to overlook.
However, Devin Booker has missed two straight games for the Suns, which gives Beal the chance to turn back the clocks. He’s seen a +3.54% bump to his usage rate with Booker off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He had 41.5 DraftKings points in 38.5 minutes in his first outing without Booker, so he has significantly more upside than usual in that scenario.
Value
Devin Vassell stands out as one of the top value options on Christmas. He’s priced at just $4,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he’s starting to see a few additional minutes for the Spurs. He’s played at least 31.8 minutes in two of his past three outings, and he’s projected for another 32 minutes on Wednesday.
Vassell can do some damage with that much playing time. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.39 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Fast Break
Nickiel Alexander-Walker is another excellent source of value on this slate. He’s projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models at just $3,600, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four outings, including two games with at least 24.5 DraftKings points.
Austin Reaves a priced in the midrange at $6,100, and those types of players could be a bit under-owned on Christmas. Most people will likely go with a “stars-and-scrubs” type of approach, which makes sense on a slate with tons of superstars to choose from. However, Reaves has been an outstanding value of late, going for at least 34.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum was a surprise inactive on Monday. He was reportedly dealing with an injury, and though he tried to give it a go, head coach Joe Mazzulla ultimately decided to keep him on the bench for the full 48 minutes.
Still, the fact that he tried to play is encouraging for his status on Christmas. We’ll know better once the full injury report is released, but I’m expecting Tatum to be in the lineup.
As long as Tatum is active, no one at small forward can match his ceiling. He leads all SFs in ceiling projection by at least 16 points in our NBA Models, and he’s having arguably the best season of his career. He’s averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he erupted for 83.75 DraftKings points the last time we saw him. If Tatum hits his ceiling, there’s a good chance he finds the optimal lineup at a weak position.
Value
OG Anunoby is coming off a strong performance in his last contest, finishing with 48.75 DraftKings points in 33.7 minutes. He hasn’t been one of the Knicks’ primary scoring threats for most of the year, but he continues to play one of the heaviest workloads in basketball under head coach Tom Thibodeau. He could approach 40 minutes on Christmas if the game vs. the Spurs is more competitive.
Fast Break
Jaden McDaniels is another potential target for Timberwolves. His minutes have been all over the place recently, logging 20.2, 35.1, and 24.3 in his past three outings, but he’s projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a solid chunk for someone priced at just $4,200, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.83.
Mikal Bridges typically plays even more minutes than Anunoby. In fact, no one in basketball is averaging more minutes per game. He’s logged at least 40.7 in three of his past four outings, and it’s hard to ignore that type of volume at a $6,000 price tag. Bridges also has some upside, evidenced by his 48.0 DraftKings points vs. the Timberwolves three games ago.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Booker was unable to practice on Tuesday, which means there’s a decent chance that he’ll be out of the lineup again on Christmas.
In that scenario, it’s hard to look past what Kevin Durant brings to the table. Durant has seen a sizable bump in value with Booker off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +7.64%. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he’s at least 60.25 DraftKings points with Booker out or limited in two of his past three games.
Durant ultimately came up short against the Nuggets on Monday, finishing with just 42.75 DraftKings points in 31.1 minutes, but his salary has come down to just $9,000 on DraftKings. He should play significantly more on Christmas if the game stays competitive, making him an elite bounce-back target should Booker miss another contest.
Value
Naz Reid is an elite per-minute producer, but minutes can occasionally be hard to come by for him. He’s stuck behind Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert on the depth chart in Minnesota, though that hasn’t stopped him from providing value recently. He’s scored 26.5 and 34.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, giving him a solid ceiling at $4,400. He also stands out as one of the better pure values at the position, given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Fast Break
What would Christmas be without LeBron James? He’s already the NBA’s all-time leader in Christmas Day scoring and games played, and he’ll add to his tallies on Wednesday. He enters in solid recent form, scoring at least 56.25 DraftKings points in three of his past five outings. He’s not quite as dominant as he was in his prime, but he can still dial it up when he wants to.
Booker isn’t the only injury that the Suns are dealing with. They’re also without Grayson Allen and Bol Bol, which should open up a few additional minutes for Royce O’Neale. He hasn’t taken advantage recently, but O’Neale is capable of putting up numbers when he gets consistent minutes. He’s not expected to garner much ownership on this slate, making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has been quiet recently, at least by his lofty standards. That said, he remains the unquestioned top player in basketball, fantasy or otherwise. He’s averaged an unreal 1.82 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and the Suns simply had no answer for him on Monday. He managed 32 points and seven rebounds in less than 30 minutes of playing time, so Mike Malone was the only person in the building with the potential to slow him down.
Jokic is priced at $11,600 on Christmas, and while that’s a ridiculous amount of salary, it’s very reasonable for him. He’s played nine games with a comparable salary this season, and he’s averaged 74.64 DraftKings points and a +14.24 Plus/Minus.
Jokic would also see a boost if Murray is out of the lineup once again, so he needs to be near the top of your wish list for this slate.
Value
On a slate with so much star power, finding viable value options is going to be key. Trayce Jackson-Davis fits the description perfectly. Jackson-Davis has seen an uptick in minutes of late, logging at least 23.1 in back-to-back games. TJD has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with an expanded workload. He’s responded with 29.5 and 34.5 DraftKings points in those games, making him a solid value at just $4,100.
Fast Break
Daniel Gafford stands out as another interesting value option. He’s not expected to see quite as much playing time as Jackson-Davis, but he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored 26.5 and 34.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.
Joel Embiid is turning into a major headache for the 76ers. He was ejected in their last contest after a confrontation with a referee, but it sounds as though he’s going to avoid any further discipline. Embiid hasn’t been on the court all that often this season, but when he has been, he’s been as effective as ever for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has some buy-low appeal at $6,400.
