NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 23) for Saints vs. Packers Monday Night Football

NFL Week 16 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints. The Packers are listed as 14-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.0.

On paper, this is a massive mismatch. The Packers have been playing some of their best football of late, while the Saints are extremely banged up. They’re currently without Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Tasyom Hill, who are arguably their five best offensive players.

Let’s dive into all of the DFS options for Monday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Josh Jacobs may not have started the season in the “stud” RB tier, but he has undoubtedly entered it now. He’s been outstanding for the Packers of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight outings. That includes each of his past five, and Jacobs has scored nine total touchdowns over that time frame.

Touchdowns are where Jacobs has made his money, but the rest of his utilization is also excellent. Over his past five outings, he’s handled 74% of the team’s rushing attempts. He’s also gotten more involved in the passing game over that time frame. He’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run during that stretch, good for a 12% target share overall.

Jacobs takes the field in a phenomenal spot this week vs. the Saints. The Saints’ defense has actually been pretty respectable against the pass – they’re seventh in pass defense EPA – but they’ve been massively exploitable on the ground. They’re 29th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

The Packers are also massive favorites, which also bodes well for Jacobs. Running backs tend to perform better in that split, and Jacobs is no exception. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.55 when favored, and that figure increases to +8.32 when favored by at least a touchdown. Jacobs has yet to see the field as a favorite that large with the Packers, but he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.22 as a favorite in Green Bay overall (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, it’s hard to imagine a much better spot for a grinder like Jacobs. He could easily approach 25 carries in this matchup, which puts another outing with 100+ yards and multiple TDs on the table.

The emergence of Jacobs as a legit fantasy stud has had a negative impact on Jordan Love. He hasn’t been terrible of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five games, but he’s scored more than 20 fantasy points merely once in that stretch. Ultimately, it’s hard to put up big numbers when your running back is punching in nine rushing touchdowns. Love and Jacobs have a -0.55 correlation on DraftKings, so it’s not surprising that Love hasn’t lit things up recently.

From a matchup standpoint, Jacobs definitely stands out more than Love. The Saints have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Love simply might not have to throw the ball that often in this contest. Love has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.73 as a favorite, and that figure dips to -4.42 when favored by at least four points.

Even though Love and Jacobs are negatively correlated, you don’t necessarily have to choose between them on this slate. There are minimal high-priced targets to choose from, and they stand out as the clear top options. Their median and ceiling projections are significantly higher than the rest of Monday’s players, so locking them both in has more merit than usual.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

With Kamara going down in the team’s last outing, Kendre Miller will take over as the team’s top running back. That said, it remains to be seen if he will be a true bell-cow. He certainly didn’t have usage in the passing game like Kamara after relieving him last week, earning a target on just 7% of his routes run. For the year, Miller has been targeted on 16% of his routes run, while Kamara leads all running backs with a 28% mark.

If Miller does not get elite usage as a receiver, it’s tough to imagine him paying off his $9,400 salary. That’s a really big number, especially for a 14-point underdog. There isn’t a ton of supporting talent for Miller to have to share the ball with, but it’s possible that this offense provides minimal value to begin with.

Miller is a much stronger target on FanDuel, where his $11,000 salary comes with a slate-best 90% Bargain Rating.

Jayden Reed headlines the Packers’ receiving corps, but it’s hard to get excited about him at $9,000. That’s $1,000 more expensive than he was last week, despite posting a pedestrian 11.1 DraftKings points in that contest.

The Packers have one of the deepest receiver groups in football, which makes it tough to pay a premium for any of them. Reed had just a 75% route participation with the team fully healthy last week, and he’s been targeted on just 20% of his routes run for the year. This price tag is simply too high.

Spencer Rattler came on in relief of Jake Haener at quarterback last week, and he nearly led the Saints to a comeback victory. He’s earned the starting job vs. the Packers, but we’ve already seen Rattler as a starter earlier this season. He started three games during Derek Carr’s first stint on the sidelines, and he responded with 14.42, 8.28, and 6.24 DraftKings points in those outings.

The Packers stand out as potentially the toughest opponent that Rattler has faced to date. They’re No. 5 in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Lambeau Field is also one of the toughest road environments in football, and opposing QBs have averaged a Plus/Minus of -5.44 when facing the Packers in Green Bay this season.

That makes Rattler a very risky proposition, but quarterbacks are always going to have some appeal in the single-game format. His ceiling projection is the top mark in this price range, even topping more expensive players like Miller and Reed.

Romeo Doubs is the most consistent member of the Packers’ receiving corps. He’s on the field at the highest rate, leading the position group with an 89% route participation in Week 15. He also has a 19% target share for the year, which ranks first among the team’s receivers.

Doubs also provides some big-play explosiveness. He had 46% of the team’s air yards last week, and he led the receiving corps with 19.0 DraftKings points. That came on two touchdowns and only five targets – which provides reason for pessimism moving forward – but he still seems like their strongest pass-catcher overall.

Christian Watson is the field stretcher in Green Bay. He’s racked up 30% of the team’s air yards this season, and he’s been at 40% in five of his past six outings. That includes a 49% mark in three consecutive weeks.

That makes him the most volatile of the Packers’ receivers. He could have a week where he racks up 100+ yards and a score, or he could finish with zero catches. He also has three weeks with a goose egg this season, so his range of outcomes is extremely wide.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has served as the Saints’ top receiver since Olave went down with an injury. He’s had a couple of spike weeks in that role, but his production has been tied almost exclusively to touchdowns. In weeks where he hasn’t scored, he’s struggled to return value.

However, his role in the passing attack is definitely growing. He’s had seven targets in back-to-back weeks, giving him a 21% target share over that time frame. That’s a very respectable mark, especially for someone in this price range.

Like Watson, MVS still has a wide range of outcomes, especially since he’s playing with a rookie QB. However, he also provides a decent bit of upside. He’s officially questionable with an illness for this contest, so make sure he’s active before locking him into your lineup.

Tucker Kraft rounds out this price range, but he could have a bit more competition for snaps this week. Luke Musgrave is officially questionable, and if he returns, he could eat into Kraft’s workload. Musgrave hasn’t played since Week 4, but he had a 33% route participation when he was available.

If Musgrave remains out, Kraft is definitely playable in this price range. He’s been on the field quite a bit recently, including an 89% route participation last week. That didn’t lead to much fantasy production – he scored just 5.4 DraftKings points vs. the Seahawks – but he cracked double-figures in each of his previous three outings. He’s a viable bounce-back target.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Saints defense stands out as the most undervalued option of the group, with their projected ownership checking in 3.1% lower than their optimal lineup rate.
• Juwan Johnson ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – Johnson should be another primary pass-catcher for the shorthanded Saints. He had a season-high 81% route participation last week, and he managed to catch a touchdown two weeks ago. He’s a solid target in this price range.
• Dontayvion Wicks ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Wicks has always succeeded when given opportunities, but the opportunities have been hard to come by with the team at full strength. His route participation plummeted from 75% with Dobbs inactive in Week 14 to just 36% last week.
• Jamaal Williams ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Williams figures to play a bit more behind Miller than he did for most of the season behind Kamara. Kamara was a true workhorse, but there’s more room for a committee with him out of the picture.
• Kevin Austin ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Austin has emerged as the Saints’ No. 2 receiver behind MVS. He had a season-high 78% route participation last week, though it resulted in just 1.8 DraftKings points.
• Foster Moreau ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Moreau has operated as the TE2 behind Johnson, but the team has used plenty of two-TE sets of late. He’s had a route participation of at least 42% in three straight games, and he’s been targeted on 21% of his routes over that time frame.
• Emanuel Wilson ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Jacobs hasn’t left a ton of work for the other Packers’ RBs of late, but with the team favored by two touchdowns, there’s the potential for the other guys to work in a bit more this week. Wilson could get the end-of-game carries if this one turns into a blowout.
• Chris Brooks ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Brooks is more of the pass-catching option out of the Packers’ backfield. He’s seen more snaps than Wilson of late, but Wilson still seems more likely to get any additional carries.
• Cedric Wilson ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Wilson’s role hasn’t been great over the past four games, logging just three total targets over that time frame.
• Dante Pettis ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Pettis saw a sizable uptick in snaps and routes last week, and he finished with a 19% target share overall. That makes him an intriguing punt play at just $1,000.