This week, the two-game slate comes on Saturday, with a pair of matchups between AFC contenders. It’s another interesting one for DFS, with both games having fairly similar totals and no obvious team/game to stack.
Unlike the Monday doubleheaders, the games run sequentially so it’s also important to be around for late swaps heading into the late contest. The slate locks at 1:00 p.m. ET with Texans-Chiefs, followed by Steelers-Ravens at 4:30.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Lamar Jackson ($8,200) Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5 Total)
Just like on Monday, there’s a clear top play at most of the positions on the slate. However, it’s a bit easier to fit them all this time around. All of which makes Jackson a fairly obvious option at quarterback. He’s projecting about four points clear of any other quarterback on the slate, with an obvious ability to break the slate open.
I don’t need to sell you on Jackson’s value in fantasy. He’s the overall QB1 this season, with huge strides in his ability as a passer, along with his typical rushing production.
The question on the slate is if Jackson is worth both his salary and his massive ownership, considering the game script that should push the Ravens to attack on the ground. It probably makes sense to only roster Jackson as part of game stacks with a few Steelers pieces since he’ll probably need to be pushed to truly separate from the cheaper pieces.
Value: CJ Stroud ($6,000) Houston Texans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (42.5 Total)
Stroud’s Texans are implied for just 19.5 points this week as they travel to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. That’s still enough for Stroud to check in as the best Pts/Sal option on the slate though, thanks to his low salary.
Stroud has certainly taken a step back this year after his electric rookie season, with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions through 14 games. In his defense, the Texans have taken major losses at wide receiver throughout the season, so it’s not all on him.
This week, Stroud has his top two options, Nico Collins ($8,100) and Tank Dell ($5,100), and a game script that should keep Houston fairly pass-heavy. Still, Stroud hasn’t flashed much ceiling this season, so betting on him to be a GPP winner is effectively a bet against a big game from Lamar Jackson.
Be sure to keep that in mind as you build lineups, thinking about what else is likely to happen if Jackson has a disappointing game.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes ($6,400): If you attached Mahomes’ production this season to a different name, he’d be about $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he is right now. He’s topped 20 points just twice this year, with no games over 30. Considering the ankle injury that forced him out of their Week 15 contest early, it’s hard to see that changing here. I’m staying away from Mahomes myself.
Russel Wilson ($5,700): Wilson is projecting as both the cheapest and lowest-owned quarterback on the slate, which makes him an extremely interesting option this week. He’s without top wide receiver George Pickens, but the Ravens have faced (by far) the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) of any defense. Add to that a game script that should force the Steelers to throw, and Wilson could be a huge steal on the two-game slate. He’s my favorite GPP option.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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