We have reached the final stretch of the regular season, with just three weeks standing between us and the start of the playoffs. Week 16 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football contest between two AFC West rivals. The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Denver Broncos, with the Chargers listed as 2.5-point favorites. The total for this contest sits at 41.5.
Both of these teams are currently in playoff positions in the AFC, and both teams have a chance to clinch a spot in Week 16. The Broncos are in with a win, and they could even get in with a loss if a few other results go their way. The Chargers need a win and some help to clinch this week, but they’re still sizable favorites to make the playoffs regardless.
The Chargers won the first head-to-head matchup between these squads, but they’re currently 1.0-game behind the Broncos in the standings. They would flip if the Chargers win on Thursday, but ultimately, the stakes aren’t incredibly high.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
These two squads are likely headed to the playoffs, but they aren’t exactly brimming with offensive talent. Bo Nix is the only player currently priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings.
Nix entered the season as the Broncos’ starting quarterback as a rookie, but expectations were ultimately pretty low. He started the year dreadfully, averaging 3.68 adjusted yards per attempt with just one touchdown pass and four interceptions.
However, he has been a viable starting fantasy quarterback since then. From Week 5 on, Nix ranks seventh at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of those 10 outings, and he’s narrowly missed returning value in two others. Overall, he’s been a pretty reliable target.
Nix fits what you look for in a modern NFL fantasy quarterback. He’s not a massive rushing threat, but he does enough with his legs to give him a boost. He’s averaged 23.4 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s punched in five touchdowns.
The matchup vs. the Chargers is a bit of a mixed bag. They’ve been one of the best defensive teams in football all season, and they’re seventh in pass defense EPA. However, they were just absolutely shredded by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last week, surrendering more than 500 yards and 40 points. Since Week 10, they’ve dipped to 22nd in pass defense EPA, so the matchup might not be quite as tough as it looks on paper.
The bigger concern might be where the game is being played. It’s a small sample size, but Nix has had some pretty drastic home/road splits as a rookie. He’s averaged more than 20 DraftKings points in his seven home games but just 15.34 in seven road games (per the Trends tool). His biggest struggles in that split came early in the year, but he’s still yet to crack 20 DraftKings points in a single road outing.
Nix ultimately stands out as a solid target on a slate with not a ton of noteworthy options. However, expectations should probably be tempered.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Justin Herbert is the other quarterback in this matchup, and it’s easy to make a case for him being the better fantasy option. For starters, his team is favored, giving him the superior implied team total. It’s not a massive difference, but favorites have historically outperformed underdogs at the quarterback position.
Herbert’s fantasy season has been an absolute rollercoaster. He started the year operating as a game manager, posting efficient but limited numbers for a run-heavy offense. The Chargers opened things up a bit in the middle of the season, and Herbert thrived. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, scoring more than 24 DraftKings points in two of them.
Unfortunately, that production hasn’t lasted. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three games, and he’s failed to crack 15 DraftKings points in any of them.
The good news is that Herbert’s volume has stayed elevated. During their first five games, the Chargers had a Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) of -5.0%. Over their past three, they’ve been at +4%. That means that Herbert is still getting opportunities; he just hasn’t taken advantage of them. Herbert has proven himself to be a high-end talent at the position, so as long as the Chargers let him keep slinging it, he should deliver better performances.
Unfortunately, the Broncos are about as tough as it gets from a matchup standpoint. They’re first in the league in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
However, they’re not infallible. They were lit up by Jameis Winston and the Browns a few weeks ago, so they are beatable. Herbert ultimately leads the slate in median and ceiling projection, and he’s No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.
Courtland Sutton has quietly turned in some big games of late. He was kept off the board entirely in Week 7, but since then, he has been a target machine for the Broncos. He’s posted a 29% target share and 47% air yards share over that time frame, both of which are outstanding figures.
Sutton did manage to find the end zone last week, but that was the only bright spot in an otherwise dismal outing. He caught just three of his nine targets, and he finished with just 12.2 DraftKings points.
The good news is that it creates a buy-low opportunity with Sutton on Thursday. He’s been priced above $10,000 on DraftKings in three straight games, but he’s back to just $9,600 vs. the Chargers. Sutton has scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in five of his past seven outings, so it’s a very reasonable number for the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver.
Ladd McConkey has been Herbert’s top pass-catcher when healthy this season. Health has been a bit of a concern for McConkey of late, but he was able to return to the lineup last week vs. the Buccaneers. He ultimately had a 92% route participation and 22% target share, so he wasn’t particularly limited.
McConkey has been removed from the injury report for Thursday Night Football, so he should be a full go vs. the Broncos. That makes him a very solid target at his current price tag. He’s scored at least 14.3 DraftKings points in four straight outings, and he’s cracked 20 DraftKings points in two of them.
Most importantly, McConkey does most of his damage from the slot, which is vital against the Broncos. Patrick Surtain has been the best cornerback in football this season, but he rarely ventures inside. He’s played just 6% of his snaps in the slot, while McConkey has run 73% of his routes from that location (per PFF). That gives him the potential to earn even more targets than usual. If Surtain is blanketing the team’s other receivers, Herbert may have no choice but to lean on him.
That same logic makes Quentin Johnston tough to roster at $8,400. Not only is this his highest price tag of the season, but he plays almost exclusively on the outside. He seems like the most logical target for Surtain in this matchup, and I don’t like his chances there.
In his first meeting vs. the Broncos, Johnston was limited to four targets, three catches, and 22 yards. His 5.2 DraftKings points was his third-lowest output of the year. He’s coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown, but he stands out as one of the worst plays on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
In the backfields, both of these teams are employing committees at the moment. For the Broncos, three different players are factoring into the equation: Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime. McLaughlin will miss this week’s contest, which gives a slight boost to the other two options in this backfield.
Williams has been inefficient for most of the year, but he’s still seeing most of the opportunities. He played on 54% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he remains the team’s primary pass-catching option out of the backfield. He also handled 100% of the short-yardage opportunities last week, so he’s getting most of the important touches for fantasy purposes. That makes him the superior option. Neither Broncos’ RB stands out as an elite value, but Williams grades out significantly better in our NFL Models.
In the Chargers’ backfield, the touches will be split between Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal. Vidal saw significantly more snaps than Edwards last week – 67% to 23% – but Edwards got most of the opportunities. He had 73% of the team’s rushing attempts in a game where they played from behind.
If this game is more competitive, Edwards should see more snaps and opportunities. His fantasy appeal is limited since he provides virtually nothing in the passing game, but he’s always a threat to punch in a score.
Vidal is the player to target if you think the Chargers are going to be playing from behind again. He played on 100% of the passing-down snaps, and he finished with a season-high 9% target share. That’s far from an elite figure, but it’s worth noting if you think the Chargers will have to go pass-heavy for the second straight week. Vidal is also significantly more appealing at just $7,000 on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with a 91% Bargain Rating.
Josh Palmer rounds out this price range, and he’s served as the Chargers’ No. 3 receiver this season. He did go off for 13.8 DraftKings points two games ago…but that was in a game without McConkey. Now that McConkey is back in the lineup, he’s too expensive at his current salary.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Will Lutz stands out as the most undervalued option on Sim Labs, with his projected ownership checking 2.5% lower than his optimal lineup rate.
- Marvin Mims ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Mims continues to see limited snaps for the Broncos, but he’s a focal point whenever he’s on the field. He has just a 30% route participation over his past five outings, but he’s been targeted on an elite 33% of his routes run.
- Stone Smartt ($4,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – With Will Dissly out of the lineup, Smartt has essentially stepped right into his role at tight end. He ran a route on 70% of the team’s dropbacks last week, and he was targeted on 25% of them. Ultimately, he ranks first on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s an excellent value target.
- Devaughn Vele ($4,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – The Broncos have been using a committee at receiver behind Sutton, but Vele has seen the most consistent snaps. He wasn’t particularly busy last week vs. the Colts, but he had a target share of at least 13% in each of his prior four outings. Like Sutton, it’s a solid buy-low opportunity.
- Adam Trautman ($3,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Trautman isn’t on the field very often, but he’s still the Broncos’ top pass-catcher at tight end. He managed to score a touchdown last week, which has bumped his price tag up $2,000 vs. the Chargers. He’s tough to like at that figure.
- Troy Franklin ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Franklin is also seeing a handful of opportunities at receiver for the Broncos. His route participation is around 50% over the past handful of weeks, while his target share is at 10%. He’s not particularly high up in the pecking order, but he should get some opportunities to make plays vs. the Chargers.
- D.J. Chark ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Chark’s route participation dipped to just 22% with McConkey back in the lineup last week, but he still saw two targets.
- Lucas Krull ($1,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Krull typically sees more snaps than Trautman, but he’s more of a blocker than a pass-catcher. He has just a 6% target share for the year.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Humphrey is just barely hanging on to a role in the Broncos’ receiving corps. His routes and targets are down over the past two weeks, but he should still see a couple of snaps vs. the Chargers.
- Tucker Fisk ($600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – With Dissly and Hayden Hurst out of the picture at tight end, Fisk becomes the No. 2 option at the position for the Chargers. That said, he had just a 16% route participation last week, and he’s yet to top 25% for the year.
