It’s been quite the about-face for the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos this season. Last year, both teams finished below .500 and outside the AFC playoff picture. In 2024, both teams have reversed course and all but guaranteed themselves a spot in this year’s postseason. A loss by either team on Thursday Night Football does little to cast doubt on their playoff position. The Chargers are two games clear of the drop line. In contrast, the Broncos are sitting a little more comfortably, three games above the next closest competitor. Surely, defense will be at the forefront of this pivotal Week 16 showdown between AFC West rivals.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Broncos vs. Chargers
Joshua Palmer More 2.5 Receptions
Now in his fourth season in the NFL, Joshua Palmer has solidified his position as a solid complementary receiver on the Los Angeles Chargers’ offense. Moreover, the Canadian has seen a slight uptick in usage over the past few weeks, bolstering his outlook for Thursday night’s showdown at SoFi Stadium.
Heading into tonight’s tilt versus the Broncos, Palmer ranks fourth on the team in target share and receptions; however, his role has grown in recent weeks. The 25-year-old is averaging 5.3 targets per game over his last four, above his season-long average of 4.1. Further, that increased workload is expected to continue as the Chargers deal with some lingering issues among their tight ends. Will Dissly will miss his second straight game with a shoulder injury. Likewise, Hayden Hurst is listed as questionable with a hip ailment. While Stone Smartt took on a more prominent role in Week 15, we expect some of those targets to be up for grabs as the Broncos typically stack up pretty well against tight ends.
As good as the Broncos have looked defensively, they’ve struggled to contain imposing wide receivers. Last week, Michael Pittman hauled in six of nine targets, becoming the fifth wide receiver over the last three weeks to record at least six catches versus the Broncos.
Palmer has taken on a more robust role with the Chargers recently, and that’s likely to continue as they continue to deal with injuries. Additionally, his ceiling looks even more promising against Denver’s ineffective pass coverage against X receivers. Backing Palmer to eclipse 2.5 receptions is one of the more notable edges in tonight’s projections.
Audric Estime More 25.5 Rushing Yards
The Denver Broncos have a proud history of extracting maximum value from their running backs. While Javonte Williams has come up short of meeting that standard this season, the Broncos have started to turn to their other running backs more frequently. With Jaleel McLaughlin ruled out of tonight’s contest, Audric Estime is poised to take on a bigger role and surpass his rushing-yard total against the Chargers.
In a vacuum, Estime’s recent game log is a little underwhelming. The rookie hasn’t surpassed six carries or 16 yards in any of his past four outings. Still, he’s been efficient when given the opportunity and will have more touches at his disposal on Thursday Night Football. So far this season, Estime has totaled 204 yards on 46 carries. His 4.4 yards per rushing attempt is second-best on the team and just shy of McLaughlin’s team-best mark of 4.5. Expect sustained production from Estime with an increased workload.
Sean Payton has stripped Williams of his usual workload recently, preferring to trot out a running back committee. Williams has recorded nine or fewer carries in five straight games, averaging just 5.6 rushing attempts per game over that stretch. McLaughlin had clearly usurped him for the lead-back position, churning out 34 carries across the same sample while out-carrying him in three straight games. His absence changes the Broncos’ running back dynamic, setting the stage for Estime to earn a more equitable workshare against the Chargers.
Denver’s rushing potential is amplified against a lackluster Chargers’ defense. LA gives up 125.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 19th in the league. More concerningly, that benchmark has jumped to 145.0 over their last three games.
Increased workload, sustained efficiency, and an ineffective Chargers’ run defense are all factors in Estime’s outlook in Week 16. We’re forecasting the Broncos’ running back eclipsing 25.5 rushing yards on Thursday night.
