Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources, including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 14 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #10 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
While the injuries are piling up for the Lions defense, the offensive line is back at full strength. They’re the only unit in the league averaging more than 5.00 adjusted line yards this season. Now they’re taking on the Bears front that ranks 30th in adjusted line yards on defense.
More importantly, the split backfield situation in Detroit seems to have come to an end. David Montgomery is done for the year with an MCL injury, leaving just Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) to carry the load for the Lions.
While Craig Reynolds ($4,000) will likely mix in to spell Gibbs, I’d expect around a 75% snap share for Gibbs, up from his near-even timeshare with Montgomery in prior games.
Given the matchup, that makes Gibbs an elite play this week — while Reynolds is a galaxy-brain play for bigger GPPs.
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Buffalo Bills OL (#3 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots DL
Bills quarterback Josh Allen ($8,700) has put up just under 100 DraftKings points over the last two weeks and now has the best pass-blocking matchup on the slate for the second week combined.
To be fair, I’m not sure how much of that is a reflection on the Bills offensive line. Allen is borderline impossible to tackle, so a lot of pressures allowed by the Bills line don’t actually lead to sacks. Still, the Patriots rank 29th in adjusted sack rate, so it’s not like he’ll be facing too many.
The likely blowout means Allen is highly unlikely to put up another massive score. However, with Buffalo having the highest total on the slate by a wide margin, he’s an extremely strong bet to finish somewhere in the mid-20s.
Arizona Cardinals OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
Opposing offenses have been able to do whatever they want to the Panthers this season. Carolina ranks dead last in adjusted line yards on defense and 28th in adjusted sack rate.
Given that the Cardinals are moderate favorites here, that’s probably better news for James Conner ($7,100) than the Cardinals passing attack. However, the Cardinals defense isn’t great either. That means game stacks with Kyler Murray ($6,100) make sense for GPPs as well — as long as you have some Panthers bring-backs as well.
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Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Washington Commanders DL vs. Philadelphia Eagles OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
I was a little bit surprised to see Washington ($2,700) with the highest combined adjusted sack rate matchup this week as they take on a tough Eagles offense.
However, the Commanders rank a solid 12th in adjusted sack rate, with Philly all the way down at 31st in sack rate allowed.
It is a little misleading, though. Philadelphia ranks dead last in Pass Rate Over Expectation, so while they have a high sack rate, they aren’t giving up that many total sacks. The only way the Commanders defense gets there from a DFS standpoint is if they force a negative game script, which is somewhat unlikely as an underdog.
However, if you want to get crazy for large-field GPPs, pairing Commanders offensive pieces with their DST makes a lot of sense. A big game from Jayden Daniels ($7,300) and company could force Philly to throw more, creating opportunities for defensive scoring.
Seattle Seahawks DL vs. Minnesota Vikings OL (#3 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
Seattle ($2,800) is another underdog defense with a strong pass-rushing matchup this week. Unlike the Commanders, they’re less dependent on a positive game script though.
That’s because the Vikings rank 3rd in PROE, so we can count on them being fairly throw-heavy even if they get a lead. That makes Seattle an interesting play this week, as most of the field won’t be willing to spend that much on an underdog.
Detroit ($3,400) also has a solid matchup on paper, but I’d avoid them, given their defensive injuries (and price tag).
