Throughout the season, I am using our FREE Trends tool to create a custom trend, and then I am tracking the results of my matches for the week in this article. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers every Friday.
Description
This week’s trend is pretty simple. I took one FantasyLabs-centric stat — Pro Trends — and combined that with batters who appear at the bottom of the batting order. I am purposely looking at unpopular players — batters who hit sixth through ninth — and then using a relatively niche metric — Pro Trends — to find Upside that is leveraged by few DFS players.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
The filters used to create this trend were as follows:
• Lineup Order is 6-9
• Batter qualifies for 8+ Pro Trends
Results
The following screenshots are pulled from entries into FanDuel’s $5 guaranteed prize pools throughout the week.
6/27
Well, at least we got the low ownership part right.
On a night where the Blue Jays were playing the Rockies at Coors Field, few DFSers considered outside outfield options. Even fewer considered batters at the bottom of the order in non-Coors lineups — Tomas batted seventh.
Still, Tomas was playing in a decent ballpark in a game in which his team’s Vegas implied run total closed at 4.6. It wasn’t especially likely for the Diamondbacks to be shutout in this game against Vincent Velasquez — who was working his way back from injury — but it happened. And because it happened, Tomas’ fantasy production was underwhelming.
6/28
I found the ownership numbers on Javier Baez and David Ross pretty shocking. Remember, these guys were batting toward the bottom of the order in a slate featuring the Blue Jays (and the Rockies, of course) at Coors. There was a weather delay in Denver, but if you were on Twitter to witness the subsequent outrage then you’ll remember that most people didn’t think that the storm was going to pose a huge threat pre-lock.
With Tulo and Story both starting in a game that Vegas had forecast with an absurd 13.2 run total, Baez won the day. This is a reminder that A) power can come from any spot in the lineup but also that B) you won’t ALWAYS be able to get these guys at low ownership levels.
6/30
With no matches on 6/29, we move to last night. Justin Bour is a great example of what to look for within this trend. Although he batted sixth last night, he has a platoon split against right-handed pitchers and plenty of power. Guys like Bour increase your odds of finding a low-owned homer, and that’s exactly what happened here.
Unfortunately for me, three teams scored double-digit runs in the late slate last night, which meant there were plenty of fantasy points to be found at first base. So Bour’s big night paid off a little less than it may have on other slates, but that won’t always be the case.
7/1
This trend is one in which the matches will likely change throughout the day. Based on our lineup projections, both Steven Moya and Jason Castro qualify for the trend at the moment. As lineups come in throughout the day, other batters will likely appear, and these two may even be bumped. The good news is that new qualifiers for this trend can be easily identified on our Lineups page. Look for batters low in the order who have the blue circle to the right of their name, indicating that they qualify for several Pro Trends.
Review
Particularly in tournaments, rostering a batter at the bottom of the order doesn’t necessarily guarantee low ownership. We saw this fact particularly with Javier Baez and David Ross on Wednesday, who appeared on 17 and 22 percent of all teams respectively.
To get a better idea of which lower-in-the-order bats will actually come at low ownership, I’d suggest looking at the Pro Trends for which the players qualify. Some will be more obvious to the public, like Vegas run totals. Others will be less obvious, like advanced data. To that point, on Wednesday the Cubs were projected to score 5.6 runs, which was the highest total outside of Coors Field.
I think that this is a fun trend that you can use to chase Upside at low ownership. It’s one, though, that I probably wouldn’t get too carried away with.
