NFL DFS Picks: Week 15 Monday Night Football DraftKings Breakdown

We’ve got a Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 15, with Bears-Vikings at 8:00 p.m. ET followed by Falcons-Raiders at 8:30. Unlike other small slates, that’s not really enough time to utilize late swap, making this unique from a strategy standpoint.

It’s also noteworthy that both games have nearly identical totals, which should spread ownership fairly evenly between both games.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Sam Darnold ($6,600) Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Chicago Bears (44 Total)

The two favored teams on the slate, Minnesota and Atlanta, are both implied for about 25 points. They’re both facing defenses that rank in the middle third of the NFL in terms of DVOA against the pass, and both games are indoors.

Despite that, we have Darnold projecting about four points clear of Kirk Cousins ($5,500). A big part of that is both team’s offensive approach. Minnesota ranks fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation, while Atlanta ranks 29th.

That means we can comfortably project considerably more volume from Darnold, who also probably has the superior receiving corps to pass to. Darnold’s ownership leads the slate, but with a fairly even distribution, it’s not a huge concern.

The bigger issue for Darnold in GPPs is whether the Bears can keep pace against the strong Vikings defense. For that reason, I’m only playing Darnold with a bring-back or two from the Chicago side.

Value: Desmond Ridder ($4,800) Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (44.5 Total)

We have three of the four quarterbacks on the slate projecting for identical Pts/Sal marks, but Ridder is the cheapest. It’s not entirely clear if Ridder will, in fact, start for the Raiders this week, as he’s behind Aidan O’Connell ($4,800) on the depth chart. O’Connell is listed as questionable as of Sunday, but we’re projecting Ridder for the start.

Either way, it’s not a bad matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass. They’re also the only team on the slate with a positive opponent plus/minus allowed to the position.

Ridder has stepped in a few times this season, including last week when he completed 12 of 18 passes for 101 yards. He’s not much, if any, of a downgrade from O’Connell. Plus, with a likely negative game script, he should have the volume to pay off his small salary.

There’s obviously some risk here in playing what’s effectively a third-string QB (or even O’Connell if active), but the salary is helpful on the slate, so it could be worth the risk, particularly in cash games.

Quick Hits

Kirk Cousins ($5,500): We’ve seen Cousins throw for 500 yards and look completely washed at different points this season. Coupled with the Falcons’ low throw rate, that doesn’t make him a super comfortable play. However, he’s just $5,500 against a bad Raiders team. If the Falcons get some early points through the air and the Vikings do so on the ground, Cousins could easily end up as the best (price considered) play on the slate. I’m not too interested myself, but it’s not a crazy idea.

Caleb Williams ($5,700): Williams is the only quarterback not projecting for an effectively identical Pts/Sal mark, coming in well below the other three. He’s got a tough matchup with the Vikings’ No.2-ranked pass defense by DVOA and the lowest team total on the slate. He also threw for 340 yards and two scores against these Vikings in their prior meeting. The Chicago offense has looked much better overall since overhauling their coaching staff, so I like Williams as a contrarian GPP option.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

It’s also noteworthy that both games have nearly identical totals, which should spread ownership fairly evenly between both games.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections: