NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 15) for Packers vs. Seahawks Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 15 features a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks. It’s an important game for both squads, with the Seahawks looking to maintain control of the NFC West and the Packers looking to stay alive in the race for the NFC North crown. The Packers are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 46.5.

The Packers have the fourth-best record in the NFC…but two of the teams ahead of them in standings play in the same division. That’s not ideal, and it would make the Packers the No. 6 seed in the conference if the playoffs started today. Their odds of catching the Lions for the top spot are slim, but they have a chance to flip the Vikings in the standings. That said, they can’t afford many losses if they’re going to make that happen.

The Seahawks have won four straight games following their bye, and they currently own a 0.5-game lead over the Rams in the standings. Those two squads will meet in the final week of the season, and there’s a good chance it will serve as a defacto playoff contest. However, the Seahawks have a few tough matchups to navigate before then, and a win over the Packers would help their chances greatly.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Josh Jacobs is in his first year with the Packers, and he’s turned in one of his best seasons as a professional. He’s not quite in the Saquon Barkley/Derrick Henry tier of production, but he’s been just one step below. He’s averaged 17.6 PPR points per game this season, making him the No. 8 RB on a per-game basis.

However, Jacobs has taken things to another level recently. He’s scored at least 21.7 DraftKings points in four straight games, including more than 31 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers three games ago. He’s been a true workhorse for the Packers over that stretch, handling 73% of the team’s rushing attempts while earning a target on 20% of his routes run.

That said, the way he’s scored his fantasy points is a bit concerning. He’s been pretty inefficient as a runner, averaging just 3.59 yards per attempt, but he’s made up for it with elite touchdown volume. He has eight total scores in those contests, and he has at least three touchdowns in two of them.

If the touchdowns ever dry up, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Jacobs to return value barring an increase in efficiency. Just look at last week. Despite scoring three touchdowns, he still managed “just” 24.6 DraftKings points. If you take away his 18 points from scores, he had just 6.6 points from yardage and receptions.

It makes Jacobs a risky pay-up option at $11,400. Not only is that his highest price tag of the season, it beats his previous high by more than $1,000. The Seahawks aren’t a great matchup, giving Jacobs an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.6, and this is not a game where the Packers are expected to run away with things.

Jordan Love is the other stud option, and he’s easier to make a case for. He hasn’t been at his best recently, but that’s not a huge surprise with Jacobs rushing for eight touchdowns. The two players have a correlation of -0.55, so when one succeeds, it tends to come at the expense of the other.

The matchup is slightly better for Love, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.9, though he has notably struggled as a road favorite for his career. He’s taken the field as a road favorite on six separate occasions, and he’s scored 16.96 DraftKings points or fewer in four of them. That includes three performances of 10.92 DraftKings points or less (per the Trends tool).

However, Love did go for 21.24 DraftKings points in his last start as a road favorite, and he stands out as one of the best targets in our projections. He leads the slate in both median and ceiling projections, and he’s No. 3 in projected Plus/Minus.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Geno Smith is the other quarterback in this contest, and it’s been an up-and-down season for him. He was one of the most consistent QBs in fantasy to start the year, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his first 10 games. However, he’s come crashing back to earth recently, scoring 13.36 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight games. Overall, he checks in as QB16 in terms of fantasy points per game.

Like Love, Smith will also be on the wrong side of his splits in this matchup. He’s been terrible as a home underdog since joining Seattle, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.57 across 12 outings. He did go off for 28.12 DraftKings points as a home dog vs. the Rams earlier this season, but he also has games of 9.08 DraftKings points vs. the Bills and 13.36 DraftKings points vs. the Cardinals when getting points at home.

The Packers aren’t a great matchup on paper, ranking 11th in pass-defense EPA, but they do enter this contest with some crucial injuries. They’ve already ruled out top corner Jaire Alexander and safety Javon Bullard, while cornerback Corey Ballentine is listed as questionable. That leaves them pretty thin in the secondary, so the matchup is better than it seems.

Despite his poor production historically as a home underdog, Smith still grades out very well in our Models. He has the top projected Plus/Minus on the slate, while only Love beats him out in ceiling projection.

The big news for the Seahawks is that Kenneth Walker will miss his second straight contest. Walker has been the team’s top running back when healthy, but Zach Charbonnet has done an amazing job filling in for him so far this season. He’s started three games in place of Walker, and he’s racked up 17.9, 25.7, and 41.3 DraftKings points in those outings. His performance vs. the Cardinals last week was good enough to make him the highest-scoring running back in the entire league, and he hasn’t finished as lower than RB8 in any of his starts.

His utilization last week was fantastic. He played on 79% of the team’s offensive snaps and handled 71% of their carries, and he was extremely busy in the passing game. He was targeted on 37% of his routes run, resulting in a 24% target share overall.

Ultimately, we’ve seen nothing but success from Charbonnet when Walker has been sidelined, so there’s no reason not to go back to the well Sunday night. He’s a steal at just $11,000 on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with an 89% Bargain Rating.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf are next on the pricing spectrum, and it’s very difficult to separate both players at the moment. The good news is that both players stand out as strong values and have a correlation of +0.33 on DraftKings, so you can definitely play both together.

Metcalf is slightly cheaper at $8,400, and he stands out as a slighter better option overall. He’s been the Seahawks’ leader in targets when healthy, posting a 24% target share compared to JSN’s 23%. He’s had more targets than Smith-Njigba in back-to-back games, so he appears to be Smith’s top target.

Metcalf also brings significantly more big-play upside to the table. He’s commanded 44% of the team’s air yards when he’s been in the lineup, and he’s been at 60% or higher in two of the past three weeks.

Smith-Njigba’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 4.2 yards closer than Metcalf’s, which makes him a better option in PPR formats than others. He’s caught 73.5% of his targets this season compared to 60.0% for Metcalf, so his ability to rack up catches is his most desirable fantasy trait.

While splitting the Seahawks’ pass catchers is tough, doing it for the Packers is nearly impossible. They have four receivers that factor into the equation most weeks, and that doesn’t even include Tucker Kraft at tight end. They haven’t been quite as crowded of late, but that will change with Romeo Doubs returning to the lineup Sunday night. Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks all have a target share between 14 and 19 percent this season, so the targets have been pretty well spread out overall.

Reed is coming off a zero-catch performance in his last outing, but he’s been the team’s most reliable option for most of the year. He doesn’t have the type of utilization you look for in a top receiver with a 17% target share and 16% air-yards share, but he makes up for it with some work as a runner. He essentially fills a “Deebo Samuel-lite” role for the Packers, averaging just under two carries per game. When someone in this receiving corps has popped for a big game this season, it’s typically been Reed; he has four top-16 finishes at the position this season, including two in the top two.

Doubs has quietly been the team’s most consistently targeted option this season. He leads the quartet with a 19% target share, and he leads the squad with an 86% route participation as well. He’s merely the third-priciest option, so he stands out as arguably the best pure value.

Watson is more of the downfield threat. He’s garnered 28% of the team’s air yards on just 14% of the targets, and his aDOT checks in at a massive 19.0. That gives him the widest range of outcomes. He has the chance at a big day if he can haul in a long pass, but he can also put up a bagel.

Wicks has been the team’s best target earner when on the field. He’s been targeted on 25% of his routes run, but he typically sees the fewest routes when the team is at full strength. He’s been below a 50% route participation for most of the year when the rest of the receivers have been healthy, giving him the least upside of the group.

With the receivers cannibalizing each other, Kraft might be their best option. He leads the group in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s coming off one of his best games last week. He ran a route on 96% of the team’s dropbacks, a new season-high, and he racked up a 28% target share. He’s ultimately scored double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s had at least 13.1 in his past two.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Packers defense stands out as the most underowned option in Sim Labs, while Brandon McManus stands out as the best pure value in our projections.
• Tyler Lockett ($4,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Lockett is clearly on the downside of his career, and he’s taken a major step back this season. Still, he has an 83% route participation and 14% target share for the year, which are outstanding figures for a player in this price range.
• Noah Fant ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Fant missed some time for the Seahawks, but he’s suited up in their past two games. He’s had a 75% route participation and 14% target share in those outings, so he also has appeal as a value option.
• Kenny McIntosh ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – McIntosh will serve as Charbonnet’s backup vs. the Packers, and he was on the field for 25% of the team’s snaps last week. He finished with seven carries and two targets vs. the Cardinals, but that was a game that the Seahawks controlled throughout. He might not see the same opportunities if the Seahawks are trailing vs. Green Bay.
• Chris Brooks ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Brooks has been Jacobs’ primary backup of late, and he’s seen a decent number of snaps on third down. However, he hasn’t seen a ton of usage as a pass catcher.
• A.J. Barner ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Barner had a touchdown two weeks ago, but his role has been minimal since Fant returned to the lineup.