Week 15 NFL DFS WR Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)

The gap between Chase and the second-best receiver in fantasy is as large as I can ever remember. He’s simply at a different level than everyone else at the position. He’s averaged 24.4 PPR points per game, and no one else is even above 19.5. Chase has already posted three games with more than 40 fantasy points this season, so he’s been nothing short of a slate-breaker at his best.

The scary part is that Chase hasn’t even commanded a monster target share for most of the year. He sits at 27% overall, and while that’s a good figure, it’s far from elite. It’s tied for the sixth-best mark in football and puts him well behind Malik Nabers’ league-leading 35%.

However, Chase has seen his target share tick up recently. He’s at 31% since Week 8 – the third-best mark over that time frame – and he’s maintained a 32% target share in three games since Tee Higgins rejoined the rotation. Chase has been the No. 1 receiver in fantasy all year with a roughly 25% target share, so what he can do at 30+% is downright scary.

Chase is the most expensive receiver across the industry, but his salary is still very reasonable. Guys like Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb were priced above $9,000 on DraftKings pretty routinely last season, and there’s no reason why Chase shouldn’t be in that territory at the moment. The Bengals’ offense has been absolutely rolling, and the Titans shouldn’t be able to slow them down. Ultimately, Chase stands out as an elite combination of value and ceiling, combining the highest ceiling projection with the second-best projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

If we’re going to pay up for Chase on Sunday – as well as a running back like Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley – we’re going to have to save a bit elsewhere. Fortunately, there are some cheaper receivers that can help.

That starts with Thomas. The Jaguars haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranking 26th in points per game and 28th in yards. However, Thomas has taken on a much larger role in their passing attack of late. He’s increased his target share to 28% over his past three outings, including a massive 37% last week. Thomas has also dominated the air yards for the Jaguars over that time frame, racking up 44%.

Thomas should stay very active this week vs. the Jets. The team is down a few key pass-catchers, including Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Gabe Davis. Engram has posted a 25% target share when in the lineup this season, so his absence opens up a ton of targets moving forward.

Outside of Thomas, this team has virtually no one to catch passes. They’re left with guys like Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, and Devin Duvernay, which is not much for competition.

The Jets are known for having a quality defense, but they haven’t been nearly as impressive this season as in years past. They’re merely 20th in pass defense EPA, and they’re expected to be without cornerback D.J. Reed this Sunday. They will get Sauce Garnder back after missing last week’s game, but it’s still a winnable matchup for Thomas overall. He’s simply too cheap for his projected role across the industry.

Calvin Ridley ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Ridley is another player whose salary doesn’t reflect how much he’s seeing the ball in Tennessee. He’s posted an outstanding 30% target share since Week 8, and he’s coming off a 38% target share last week vs. the Jaguars. He also has 40% of the team’s air yards over that time frame, so he’s been one of the busiest receivers in football.

Unfortunately, Ridley’s massive target share hasn’t led to a ton of production. Last week, he managed to turn 12 targets into just seven catches for 59 yards despite facing one of the easiest matchups in all of fantasy. Still, his resulting 12.9 DraftKings points were nearly enough to return value.

He’ll have another great chance at providing value in Week 15. He’s taking on the Bengals, who have been almost as bad as the Jaguars this season. They’re 24th in pass defense EPA, but they’ve allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game. Opposing offenses typically have to throw the ball against the Bengals for four quarters because their offense is so potent.

Ridley is an elite value across the industry, but he’s a particularly strong target on FanDuel. His $6,000 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, making him one of the best plays at the position.

Elijah Moore ($5,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)

Moore is somehow an even better value than Ridley on FanDuel. He’s actually cheaper than he is on DraftKings, despite the salary cap being $10,000 higher. As a result, Moore leads the position in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus.

The Browns haven’t won many games since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback, but their offense has undoubtedly been more effective. He’s had some massive performances in terms of yards and touchdowns, which has elevated all of his pass-catchers.

Moore has been more of a secondary option for the Browns, but he did go off for 14 targets, eight catches, and 111 yards two weeks ago vs. the Broncos. They have one of the strongest pass defenses in football, so if he can do that vs. Denver, there’s no reason he can’t do it vs. Kansas City. Their defense has taken a major step back against the pass this season, ranking just 21st in pass defense EPA.

Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

---

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Tee Higgins ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Chase is the Bengals’ clear No. 1 option, but the gap between him and Higgins isn’t as large as it seems. Higgins has posted a 26% target share for the year, and before last week, he was actually above Chase in that metric.

The big difference is that while Chase seems to find the end zone multiple times per game, Higgins has just five touchdowns for the year. That’s still a very respectable number for just eight games played, but it pales in comparison to what his superstar teammate has done. Ultimately, Chase has averaged 18.4 expected PPR points per game for the year, while Higgins is closely behind at 16.3. That’s the eighth-highest mark at the position.

Higgins is coming off a poor showing last week, but he had scored 17.9 and 32.8 DraftKings points in his two prior games following an injury. He’s a strong bounce-back target vs. the Titans, with no receiver showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency.

Ladd McConkey ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

McConkey has dealt with a host of injuries of late, but he’s been able to play through most of them. Unfortunately, he was forced to sit out last week vs. the Chiefs, and his absence had a big impact on the team’s passing attack.

McConkey is officially questionable for this week’s showdown vs. the Buccaneers, but he’s been able to log three straight limited practices this week. That at least gives him a chance to return to the lineup.

If he’s active, he couldn’t ask for a much better spot. The Buccaneers have been shredded by opposing passing attacks all season, and they’ve surrendered the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers. McConkey has been the team’s unquestioned top target, so he could feast if he returns to the lineup.

Ultimately, McConkey is another player who grades out extremely well in Sim Labs. He trails only Higgins in terms of optimal rate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Courtland Sutton ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

The Broncos are coming off a bye in Week 14, and they get a matchup vs. the Colts in their first game back. Indianapolis has been a solid matchup for receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Sutton entered the year as an afterthought for fantasy purposes, but he has put up big numbers as the team’s top receiver. Bo Nix has continued to progress throughout his rookie season, and Sutton has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s racked up a 29% target share and 44% air yards share over that time frame. He’s also been the team’s clear No. 1 pass-catcher in the red zone, garnering 44% of their end zone targets for the year.

Sutton’s price tag has started to creep up, but he still stands out as undervalued for his role. 

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)

Harrison is on the opposite end of the spectrum as Sutton. His price tag has decreased exponentially since the start of the year. He’s been priced as high as $7,500 this season, and he’s now down to just $5,500 vs. the Patriots. That’s his cheapest salary of the year by a solid amount.

Harrison clearly hasn’t had the type of impact most were expecting as a rookie, but he’s still put up respectable numbers. He has a 23% target share for the year, and he’s turned in the occasional spike week. That includes a finish as the No. 1 scorer at the position back in Week 2.

Harrison also has 20 total targets over his past two outings, and he has a big ceiling if he can maintain that level of involvement vs. the Patriots. They’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, and the Cardinals have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate.

Khalil Shakir ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) & Amari Cooper ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

The Bills’ passing attack is expected to get a bit healthier this week, with both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid poised to return to the lineup. That said, Shakir and Cooper still stand out as the team’s top two targets in the game with the highest total of the week.

Shakir has been Josh Allen’s top pass-catcher all season. He’s been targeted on 25% of his routes run, and his opportunities have steadily increased as the year has progressed. He’s had a route participation of at least 80% in four straight games, and he’s posted a 27% target share over that time frame.

Cooper was expected to take over as the team’s top receiver after being acquired before the trade deadline, but that hasn’t exactly been the case. Still, this is a player with a proven track record catching passes from one of the best QBs in football. He was also targeted on a massive 54% of his routes run last week, good for a target share of 38% overall.

Both players have plenty of appeal vs. the Lions, with Shakir standing out as the better value on DraftKings and Cooper the better value on FanDuel. 

Davante Adams ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)

Adams has not been able to save the Jets’ season, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities. He’s posted a 29% target share with the Jets, which narrowly beats out Garrett Wilson for the top mark on the team. He’s also seen 33% of the team’s end zone targets, and he’s caught three touchdowns in his past five games.

Adams is coming off his best performance as a Jet last week, finishing with 28.9 DraftKings points on nine receptions, 109 yards, and a touchdown. He’ll have a chance at another big outing vs. the Jaguars, who have been the worst pass defense in football by a comical margin.

Ultimately, no one wants anything to do with the Jets at this point, which means Adams could fly a bit under the radar in this spot. He’s projected for just 6.7% ownership on DraftKings, but his optimal lineup rate is closer to 10%.

Nico Collins ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)

Collins is another player who stands out as undervalued this week. He’s been the No. 2 receiver in fantasy when on the field this season, and he’s logged 20.2 and 22.9 DraftKings points in his past two games.

That makes him a very interesting pivot off Chase at the top of the pricing spectrum. The Dolphins haven’t been a great matchup for receivers this season, but they just surrendered 100-yard games to Adams and Wilson last week. He’s projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.