With bye weeks done for the season, we have an extra large 12-game main slate in Week 15, with our usual 1:00 p.m. ET start time.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,500) Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (54.5 Total)
Fresh off his six(!) touchdown performance in Week 14, Allen has another elite setup this week. His Bills are on the road in Detroit as slight underdogs in the game, with the slate’s highest total by an eight-point margin.
Detroit is a major pass funnel, with the third-highest opponent pass rate and fourth-highest opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the league. Allen should also face a clean pocket against the Lions’ mediocre (at best) pass rush while chasing points against the league’s highest-scoring team.
Outside of more clear stacking partners, it would be difficult to think of a better spot for a quarterback than Allen has this week. He’s the obvious top play on the slate and could even be considered for cash games if you can find the salary.
For GPPs, I’ll want to mix and match stacks around Allen, but I have some leans on the best way to approach it that we’ll touch on later in this article.
Value: Kyler Murray ($6,000) Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. New England Patriots (46.5 Total)
One of the reasons Allen is in the cash game conversation this week is because there’s not an obvious salary saver at the position that’s truly comfortable to play. The best we’ve got is Murray, who, at $6,000, isn’t exactly cheap.
Nor is he an archetypal cash game play. As I pointed out last week, Murray has a wide range of outcomes. He’s scored over 25 points in four games — and under 13 in four others.
The matchup with the bad Patriots defense should stabilize his production a bit, though. They’ve allowed about 27 DraftKings points per game over the past three weeks. Of course, with Arizona favored by about a touchdown, they’re unlikely to stay aggressive deep into this one.
That means Murray’s floor is a bit higher than usual, but his ceiling is slightly lower. I don’t have a problem playing him in cash games, though I’d prefer a bit more upside at his price tag. For GPPs, he makes the most sense stacked with Patriots options — he’ll need New England to keep up to hit a true ceiling game.
Still, Murray leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection at the position with a fairly comfortable lead.
Quick Hits
Justin Herbert ($5,900): The closest player to Murray in Pts/Sal projection is Herbert. He’s taking on a Bucs defense that’s allowed the most points to opposing quarterbacks and facing the third-highest pass rate over expectation. Injuries are a big factor here, though. Both Herbert and top wide receiver Ladd McConkey are officially questionable as of Friday. If both get a clean bill of health, it wouldn’t shock me if our projections pushed Herbert past Murray as the best Pts/Sal option.
Editor’s note: Herbert has been removed from the injury report.
Lamar Jackson ($8,300): Jackson is a reasonable pivot off Josh Allen this week, though his slightly lower salary means ownership will likely be fairly similar. Unlike Allen, Jackson is a massive favorite against a bad Giants team, with his Ravens having the highest implies total on the slate. I tend to prefer the shootout potential in Bills/Lions over what should be a blowout here, but Jackson’s rushing production keeps him in the conversation.
Joe Burrow ($7,300): Burrow has topped 25 points in his last five games, with three of those going for 30 or more. Now he draws a pass-funnel Titans team that’s faced a top-five opponent PROE on the season. It doesn’t look like he’ll be drawing much ownership this week, but he could easily keep pace with Allen or Jackson at about $1,000 cheaper — which could be the difference in GPPs.
Jared Goff ($6,500): The Lions a largely a run-first team, with an elite offensive line that makes it easy to put up points on the ground. However, they might opt to be a bit more aggressive here, knowing they need to keep up with Allen and the Bills. Goff and the Lions have the second-highest team total on the slate (behind Jackson’s Ravens), but with Goff coming at a steep salary discount. He’ll need the touchdowns to primarily come through the air to have a chance, but that’s not too farfetched against a Bills defense that ranks top-ten against the run.
Anthony Richardson ($5,800): Richardson has a tough matchup against the Broncos, but he’s too cheap for his upside. In his three games back as a starter, he’s gone for a 4x multiplier of his Week 15 salary twice already. Denver also plays man coverage at a top-five rate in the league, which boosts QB rushing production. He’s a sneaky play for larger field GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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