The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Detroit Lions – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
On Sunday’s star-studded QB slate, Allen stands out as a top pay-up option in our models after his historic performance last week. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ, Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all quarterbacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He edges out Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels for the top spot on both sites.
Last week, Allen became the first player in NFL history to score three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in the same game. He finished with 54.88 DraftKings and FanDuel points and is averaging 24.44 DraftKings points per game this year.
He has posted over 20 DraftKings points in each of his last eight games and was trending up even before last week’s huge performance. Over the last five games, he has nine passing touchdowns and six rushing scores and has led the Bills to 30+ points in each of those five contests.
This week, Allen will have to bring his best game once again since his Bills will face the Lions on the road in Detroit. Like last week, this could be a high-scoring indoor road game for Buffalo, and while he isn’t likely to duplicate last week’s monster numbers, he brings the highest ceiling of all the QBs in play due to his dual-threat production.
Top Value: Kyler Murray vs. New England Patriots – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
In the aggregated projections, Kyler has the highest Projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin on DraftKings, where he also matches six Pro Trends, more than any other quarterback this week. He also has a 61% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Murray and the Cardinals took a tough home loss against the Seahawks last week, but Kyler threw for two touchdowns and 259 yards to finish with 19.96 DraftKings points. He has over 17 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games, highlighted by a big game with two rushing touchdowns against the Jets on his way to 28.74 DraftKings points in Week 10.
For most of the season, Kyler has been a solid dual-threat option, averaging 220.2 passing yards and 34.2 rushing yards per game. He has 15 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns while only throwing eight interceptions.
The Patriots are a favorable matchup for him this week since they have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Quarterbacks have thrown 10 passing touchdowns against the Pats in their last three games and multiple passing scores in five of their last six. Anthony Richardson also tacked on a rushing score in Week 13.
Kyler’s getting a lot of attention since the Cards badly need a bounce-back win and seem to be in a good place to get it. Even though he may be chalky, his upside puts him in a good place to be a strong value.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry at New York Giants – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Like quarterback, running back is a stacked position on Sunday’s slate. The top ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our aggregate, though, clearly goes to Derrick Henry. On DraftKings, King Henry matches 11 Pro Trends as well, more than any other running back in play.
Henry and the Ravens are returning from their bye week, but so far he has been as good as Baltimore hoped for when they brought him in this past offseason. In his 13 games, he is averaging 21.0 DraftKings points per contest and has found the end zone 15 times. He had a two-week touchdown drought before his week off but stayed heavily involved in the offense, producing 17.0 and 14.1 fantasy points in tough matchups against the Chargers and Eagles.
He gets a much better matchup this week as the Ravens visit the Giants, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. The Ravens are heavily favored and likely to be playing from ahead, so it could be a Henry showcase game.
The Giants have allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in five straight weeks, giving up a total of seven scores during that span and an average of 144.0 rushing yards per game to running backs over their last seven contests.
Top Value: Chuba Hubbard vs. Dallas Cowboys – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Hubbard is set up for a busy week in a favorable matchup, so he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back in aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His only down game since Bryce Young was put back into the lineup was when Jonathon Brooks took more of his carries against the Bucs. With Brooks suffering a season-ending injury last week, Hubbard should have a clear path to playing time against Dallas this week.
Hubbard has posted over 15 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those four contests. Last week, Hubbard had 20.7 DraftKings points, totaling 92 rushing and 15 receiving yards and scoring his ninth touchdown of the season. He hasn’t been at King Henry’s level, but he is finding the end zone regularly.
The Cowboys have been a dream matchup for running backs this year. Last week’s Chase Brown score gave opposing running backs 16 touchdowns in 13 games. Running backs have averaged 98.9 rushing yards and 40.5 receiving yards per game against Dallas.
With all the work he can handle and so much recent success, Hubbard is a very solid value play this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase at Tennesse Titans – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Chase torched the Cowboys on Monday Night Football and continues to make a strong case for the Bengals or someone else to give him a gigantic contract. He has the top ceiling projection of all WRs in the aggregated projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Last week, Chase hauled in 14 of 18 targets for 177 yards, two touchdowns, and a massive 48.1 DraftKings points. It wasn’t even his best game of the season, though, since he had 11 catches for 264 yards, three touchdowns, and 58.4 DraftKings points in Week 10.
In between those two performances single-handedly winning weeks for his fantasy owners, Chase has been consistently excellent. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight and five of his last six. On the season, he’s averaging over 100 yards per game and has averaged 9.0 catches per contest over his last six games.
He’s in a tougher matchup against the Titans this week, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. However, opposing WRs have snagged 10+ passes against them in four straight games, with 160+ yards in three of those contests and four touchdowns.
The matchup should help keep his ownership down and make him a good leverage play against Tennessee. Joe Burrow seems very invested in getting him the ball, so Chase will have a high ceiling regardless of the matchup.
Top Value: Courtland Sutton vs. Indianapolis Colts – $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
There aren’t any bargain basement receivers who are obvious plays this week, so I’m going with an option at a little higher salary that should be able to outperform his price tag. Remember, value doesn’t always mean “cheap.” It just means getting a good return on your investment. Sutton has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so even though he costs a little more, he should be able to exceed expectations.
Sutton has been a great play as the top target in the resurgent Broncos’ attack led by rookie Bo Nix. Since bizarrely going without a catch or target in Denver’s rout of the Saints, Sutton has finished with at least 19 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. He had at least six catches and at least 70 yards in each of those games while averaging 9.5 targets per game.
Sutton has scored three touchdowns in his last four games as well, putting up a season-high 29.7 DraftKings points against the Raiders in Week 12.
Coming out of their bye week, the Broncos take on the Colts, who are also coming back after a week off. The matchup should put Sutton in another matchup to shine. Wide receivers haven’t scored many touchdowns against Indy, but they have averaged over 150 yards per game and had at least 100 yards in each of the Colts’ last six games.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. New England Patriots – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
If you’re looking at Kyler as a value QB, Trey McBride is a great stacking option to consider. He’s expensive but gets so much volume that he brings a very high ceiling at the position. He has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections in the aggregate rankings, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus despite his elevated salary.
McBride had 12 catches in back-to-back weeks in Week 12 and Week 13, with over 20 DraftKings points in each contest. He cooled off a little last week against the Cardinals, catching seven passes for 70 yards and 14.0 DraftKings points. He still got a massive 14 targets, though, so opportunities are still there for the Cards’ tight end to post a huge game.
All season long, McBride has had no trouble getting catches and yards this year, but he still doesn’t have a receiving touchdown. Despite 80 catches and 106 targets, his only touchdown came on his one carry of the year. Murray and McBride will try to get him back in the end zone this week in a favorable spot against the Patriots.
Top Value: Stone Smartt vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $2,600 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel
Since I went a little more expensive with my value receiver, here’s a way to balance that out. Chargers tight end Stone Smartt has the potential to be a great sleeper this week as he steps into a bigger role after injuries to Will Dissly (shoulder) and Hayden Hurst (hip).
Smartt has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings behind only McBride, and at FanDuel, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $5,000. Smartt gets a good matchup against the Bucs this week, who have given up an average of 70.5 receiving yards to tight ends this year.
This will be the biggest opportunity of Smartt’s career to this point since the third-year UDFA from Old Dominion only had three catches for 44 yards all season before last week. While filling in for the injured Dissly last week, though, Smartt showed some intriguing potential in the second half against the Chiefs. He was given an elite 93.44 grade on Pro Football Focus, and he finished with three catches for 54 yards.
The Chargers will be looking for players to step up this week, especially if Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) is out again. Smartt has a clear path to playing time and potentially a significant workload. If you use him at FLEX or TE, he leaves plenty of roster flexibility with his bargain basement salary barely over the minimum.
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