NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 12) for Rams vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 15 gets underway with a sneaky-important NFC West matchup. The Rams will head north to take on the 49ers in San Francisco, with the 49ers listed as three-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 49.0, so there’s expected to be some scoring as well.

The Rams are coming off a huge upset win over the Bills last week, improving their record to 7-6 for the year. That puts them just one game behind the Seahawks for the top spot in the division. With the offense completely healthy and rolling, they have the potential to go toe-to-toe with anyone.

Meanwhile, the 49ers were widely expected to win this division after making it to the Super Bowl last season. Unfortunately, they’ve been decimated by injuries for most of the year. They were basically left for dead heading into last week’s matchup vs. the Bears, but they put together one of their best games of the year in a decisive victory. The 49ers are just one game behind the Rams in the standings, so their chances of winning the division would improve greatly with a win.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game has three players priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings, all of whom play for the Rams. It starts with Puka Nacua.

Nacua has established himself as the Rams’ clear No. 1 receiver since returning to the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s coming off a massive showing last week vs. the Bills. He racked up 12 catches, 162 yards, and a touchdown as a receiver, and he added another 16 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Ultimately, his 44.8 DraftKings points were the fourth-most by any receiver this season, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase (twice) and Jauan Jennings (per the Trends tool).

Starting in Week 10, Nacua has posted an unreal 38% target share across five outings. That’s the highest mark in the league by a wide margin, with A.J. Brown ranking second at 34%. He also leads the team with a 37% air yards share over that time frame, and he’s finished as a top-nine PPR receiver in four of five games.

Ultimately, it’s hard to be too bullish on Nacua at the moment. The matchup vs. the 49ers isn’t ideal – he has a -3.0 Opponent Plus/Minus – but he is among the strongest options on the slate.

Kyren Williams is also priced in this range, but it’s a lot tougher to get excited about him. Williams has been one of the biggest workhorses in the NFL for most of the year, but the team has eased up on him a bit recently. He’s down to a 76% snap share and 62% carry share over the past two weeks after sitting at 88% and 78%, respectively, through his first 11 outings.

Williams has still managed to provide value in each of his past two contests, posting 21.3 DraftKings points vs. the Saints and 23.7 DraftKings points vs. the Bills, but he had to run well to get there. He was extremely efficient vs. New Orleans, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt, while he found the end zone twice vs. Buffalo.

If his workload doesn’t revert to normal this week vs. the 49ers, he has some bust potential at his current price tag. He’s still a great bet to find the end zone – he’s scored in 10 of 13 games this season – but he needs more than that to pay off his elevated salary.

The one saving grace for Williams is the matchup. The 49ers have been awful at stopping the run this season, ranking 28th in rush defense EPA. They’ve been significantly better against the pass, so it’s a good spot for the Rams to let Williams eat. He has a wide range of outcomes, but he clearly has some upside in this matchup.

Even with Nacua dominating the targets, it’s still left enough work for Cooper Kupp. He’s posted a 26% target share over his past five games, and while that’s a slight decrease from his full-season mark, it’s still good enough for a top receiver. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he’s had double-digit targets in two of them.

Kupp has also really enjoyed facing the 49ers of late. In his past five meetings vs. San Francisco, he’s tallied 22.9, 29.2, 40.0, 29.6, and 26.2 DraftKings points. However, all of those came before the start of last season, which means that Nacua wasn’t in the lineup for any of them. It’s still an encouraging factor, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect a repeat on Thursday.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

The two quarterbacks headline this price range, with Brock Purdy checking in at $9,400 and Matthew Stafford at $9,000.

Let’s start with Purdy. Despite the 49ers having a pretty disastrous season, Purdy has still delivered fantasy value for DFS players. He’s the No. 9 QB in terms of fantasy points per game, and that number would be higher if not for a disastrous 3.16 DraftKings points vs. the Packers two weeks ago. Overall, Purdy has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven outings, and he’s scored at least 24.1 DraftKings points in four of them.

Purdy will also be on the positive side of his splits this week. He’s historically been far better at home than on the road, averaging a +1.55 Plus/Minus and 21.17 DraftKings points per game. The Rams represent an outstanding matchup – they’re 29th in pass defense EPA – and Purdy torched the Rams for 26.78 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season.

Overall, he leads the slate in a host of different categories, including median and ceiling projection. He’s also tops in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s an elite target.

Stafford is the more talented of the two quarterbacks, but he hasn’t been quite as impactful for fantasy purposes. He’s merely 21st at the position in fantasy points per game, though his production has trended up as his receivers have gotten healthier. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven outings, including 23.8 DraftKings points vs. the Bills last week.

The big difference is that Stafford doesn’t appear to have the same upside as Purdy. That’s particularly true in this matchup. Purdy leads the slate with a +3.0 Opponent Plus/Minus, while Stafford is at -1.5. He’s also an underdog, so his team isn’t expected to do quite as much scoring.

That makes Purdy the superior option, but both QBs stand out as strong values.

Jauan Jennings has served as the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver in previous years, but injuries have thrust him into a bigger role this season. He’s proven to be up for the job.

Since returning from an injury of his own in Week 10, Jennings has posted an elite 32% target share and 37% air yards share. He’s also seen 50% of the team’s end zone targets over that stretch, so he checks all the boxes you look for in a fantasy receiver.

Jennings snapped a small cold streak with a big performance vs. the Bears last week, catching seven passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. He’s the 49ers’ clear top target as a pass-catcher, and frankly, it’s not really that close.

The 49ers have been hit particularly hard by injuries in their backfield. Christian McCaffrey has spent most of the year on IR, while Jordan Mason suffered an injury in Week 13. That leaves Isaac Guerendo as the top guy on the depth chart.

What we’ve seen from Guerendo this season has been extremely impressive. He’s averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, and he turned 15 carries into 78 yards and two touchdowns last week vs. the Bears. He added two receptions for 50 yards through the air, so he fared extremely well in his first game as a starter.

Unfortunately, Guerendo also picked up an injury last week and is officially listed as questionable for Thursday. He has stated that he plans to play, but make sure to monitor his status before kickoff.

As long as Guerendo is active, there’s no reason to target Patrick Taylor. He would presumably be the next man up at running back, and DraftKings has priced him up to $7,600 vs. the Rams. He managed to score a touchdown last week, but he saw just seven carries behind Guerendo. Ultimately, the only way he can pay off this price tag is if Guerendo is also out of the picture.

George Kittle and Deebo Samuel round out this price range. Despite the emergence of Jennings, Kittle continues to produce at a high level. No tight end in football has averaged more PPR points per game, and he’s scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in two of his past three outings.

His price tag has dipped to just $8,000 vs. the Rams, and there’s no reason he should be that cheap. The Rams have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, so it’s a very reasonable matchup. He correlates well with Purdy (+0.37), so he’s a logical stacking partner as well.

It’s harder to make a case for Samuel. His production continues to trend downward, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in six straight games. He’s averaged just four targets per game over his past three contests, though he did see five rushing attempts last week.

Samuel does have a proven track record, so he has some buy-low appeal at $7,600. Still, his role doesn’t look too pretty at the moment.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The two defenses stand out as the more undervalued options, with their projected ownership checking in below their optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
• Ricky Pearsall ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Pearsall hasn’t provided a ton of production, but he’s on the field at a decent clip for the 49ers. He has a 72% route participation for the year, so he has some upside.
• Demarcus Robinson ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – Robinson is officially questionable, but he did return to practice on Wednesday. That gives him a chance to be in the lineup vs. the 49ers. Robinson hasn’t had as many opportunities with Kupp and Nacua in the lineup, but he’s always a threat for a touchdown.
• Blake Corum ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Williams’ reduced workload has been a benefit to Corum. He’s handled 28% and 19% of the team’s carries in back-to-back games, and he had a carry from inside the five-yard line last week vs. the Bills.
• Tutu Atwell ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Atwell saw a spike in routes last week, and he would be a prime target if Robinson is unable to suit up. His big play ability keeps him in the mix as a punt play even if Robinson is in the lineup.
• Kyle Juszczyk ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – With Guerendo at less than 100%, it’s possible Juszczyk does a bit more than usual this week. Even if he doesn’t, he’s a threat for a couple of carries or targets in any given contest.
• Colby Parkinson ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – The Rams have not thrown to the tight end position very much this season, but Parkinson is their top option when they do. He has a 10% target share for the year, and he could see a few more snaps than usual if Davis Allen (questionable) is unable to go.