As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
The winner of the Week 14 Millionaire Maker was Snakediem17, who got there on fifteen total lineups. We’ll take a look at some of their other rosters as well to see if there was a thought process that led to the million-dollar takedown.
The Lineup
The Stack
The winning lineup this week started with a stack built around Bills-Rams, the highest total game on the slate. What’s notable about that is all three players involved came in around seven percent ownership, despite being the top plays from the objective best game on the slate for DFS.
Part of that was due to the difficulty in stacking the Bills. Josh Allen spreads the ball around to a variety of players, as well as putting up points via rushing — and occasionally even receiving — touchdowns of his own.
With that said, Khalil Shakir was reasonably cheap, considering his 20% target share in the Bills high-powered offense.
On the other side, Puka Nacua has clearly emerged as the Rams’ top threat, as I highlighted in my Week 14 Main Slate Breakdown. He needed to contribute for this game to reach expectations, and he did just that as the slate’s leading receiver.
Sometimes, it’s as easy as picking the best players from the best game and working from there. The stack was relatively expensive, but with the obvious running back value on the slate, they were easy to get to.
Other Correlations
While Snakediem17 took the top plays from the Bills-Rams, they took a different strategy in the Falcons-Vikings game. That one had the third-highest total on the slate, though both offenses are somewhat more condensed than the Bills.
While Darnell Mooney is theoretically the WR2 for the Falcons, he now leads the team in receiving yards. He didn’t coming into Week 14, but he was close — making him a solid value over Drake London. That’s in terms of both salary, but more importantly ownership. He was about a third as popular as London, whom he outperformed as well.
Jordan Addison came in at a similar discount to Justin Jefferson for the Vikings in both regards. I’m not sure what Snakediem17 saw in this game to make him target the WR2s, but whatever it was served him well in this lineup.
The Chalk
For the first time in a while we had massive value at running back this week. There were three backups thrust into starting roles. All of whom came in under $5,400 in DraftKings salary with similar projections.
It made sense to stick with Isaac Guerendo and Zach Charbonnet, who play for far more functional offenses than Braelon Allen with the Jets. Both outperformed their expectations by a long shot, but there’s obviously more upside if the team is likely to score more points.
While they also had massive ownership, that was more than balanced out by all of the less popular pieces in this lineup.
The Sleepers
There weren’t any true sleepers in this lineup outside of the primary stack. However, Snakediem17 paired both the Steelers team defense and their tight end, Pat Freiermuth.
They took a stand with the Steelers, rostering them in over 70% of his lineups. Any defense against the Jameis Winston-led Browns obviously is a strong play, given his struggles with pick-sixes. That goes double when it’s one of the league’s best defenses generally.
Pittsburgh didn’t have a massive game on defense, but getting to double-digits at the position is always helpful.
Which is similar to how tight end feels most weeks. Freiermuth’s 13.80 score wasn’t massive, but at his price tag, it was solid enough to get this lineup to the top. While we chase ceiling at most positions, getting a solid floor at positions where big scores are harder to come by can be enough.
