Last NFL season, our new SimLabs tool went live to the public. It’s a powerful new feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. This week, we’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective earlier in the year. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Saquon Barkley + Alvin Kamara
Both Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara are projecting for over 20% ownership this week, so neither are exactly contrarian picks. With one or two cheap running back options on the slate and most GPP lineups rostering four wide receivers, the number of people who play both top backs together will be much smaller.
Both have obvious slate-breaking ability. Barkley is the RB1 by a mile on the season and is a huge home favorite against the league’s worst defense in terms of points allowed to backs. Kamara is the RB4 in PPR scoring despite not scoring a touchdown in Week 6. That was largely due to Taysom Hill vulturing goal-line work — and now Hill is done for the season.
The point is that both have massive upsides and could easily break the slate. You could still pair them with one of the cheaper backs (or both across separate lineups) to make the salary work.
Check out how our SimLabs Lineup Generator works:
Will Levis + Tony Pollard
I was surprised to learn that Tony Pollard ranks third in the NFL in touch share this season, behind only much more expensive backs Alvin Kamara and Kyren Williams.
I was not surprised to be reminded that the Jaguars have the NFL’s worst defense by DVOA, and are tied for 31st in points allowed per game. They’re an especially good matchup for rushing quarterbacks, as I highlighted in my main slate breakdown.
By rostering Pollard and Will Levis together, you’re theoretically getting exposure to all of the offensive production this week against the worst defense in the league. At a combined price tag of just $11,400, that’s a great deal.
You wouldn’t need a massive score from either player to keep you on a GPP-winning pace, plus it frees up plenty of salary for other top options. Like the above grouping, I also expect the combined ownership of the stack to be much lower than the individual ownership implies.
With that said, I prefer this stack for smaller field GPPs since it’s unlikely both Levis and Pollard have slate-breaking scores. It’s very likely they collectively have strong scores, though. You can adjust for the type of tournament you’re building for using the “Contest Field” option on SimLabs.
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Geno Smith
Geno Smith is the top quarterback in SimLabs Optimal-Projected Ownership rating this week. A lot of that is due to the fact that he’s projecting for sub-3% ownership, as he and the Seahawks are a bit lost in the shuffle in Week 14.
Which is strange, because Seattle ranks top-five in both pass attempts per game and Pass Rate Over Expectation on the season. The Cardinals defense isn’t exactly one to avoid, plus this game is inside in Arizona.
News broke Friday that Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker is a true game-time decision, which could also push Seattle more to the air than usual. DFS is a volume game, so getting Smith’s likely pass attempts for sub-$6,000 AND at low ownership feels like a bargain.
Part of the issue is Seattle’s passing attack is fairly evenly distributed across a handful of players. That’s where SimLabs comes in. Rather than try to guess which players see the bulk of the work, let the sims mix and match around the quarterback.
