Championship Weekend. After 14 grueling weeks, it all comes down to this. Three conference champions will be decided on Friday night, leaving DFS punters six games to sift through for Saturday’s main slate. All Power 4 conferences will be decided on Saturday, along with the MAC and Sun Belt. That leaves no shortage of elite playmakers, fantasy studs, and an underappreciated Group of 5 players that can turn the fantasy tide.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Braylon Braxton (Marshall Thundering Herd): $7,100 DraftKings
The Marshall Thundering Herd seemingly came out of nowhere to compete in this year’s Sun Belt Championship Game. Led by quarterback Braylon Braxton, Marshall won six straight to end the campaign, knocking off the best the conference had to offer along the way. In doing so, they set up a grudge match against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Cajun Field in Lafayette. Braxton will need to be at his best if the Thundering Herd hope to pull off the unexpected upset. Thankfully, that’s exactly what Braxton has delivered over the latter stages of the campaign.
The senior has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country. Braxton has thrown 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions this season, while serving as a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. Since taking the reins at the start of October, he’s thrown a touchdown in every game, including eight over his last three starts. Over that more recent stretch, Braxton has also eclipsed 200 passing yards in all but one of those contests, which is complemented by 244 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Those benchmarks should ratchet higher against a Ragin’ Cajuns defense that has been lacking. After limiting opposing quarterbacks to 175.8 passing yards per game through their first nine, their last three opponents are averaging north of 273.3. Additionally, Louisiana has been ineffective against the rush all season, getting burned for 159.7 yards per game.
Braxton and the Thundering Herd are peaking, and a porous Louisiana defense could be exposed in the Sun Belt Championship Game. Even if Marshall doesn’t pull off the upset, we like Braxton’s ceiling. He should have no problem reaching his fantasy pinnacle on Week 15’s main slate.
Kevin Jennings (SMU Mustangs): $6,900 DraftKings
The SMU Mustangs have turned most bettors into believers. An afterthought in the preseason prognostications, SMU has run through its conference schedule and straight into the ACC Championship Game, in its first season in the conference no less. In doing so, the Mustangs have emerged as the betting favorite in the title match and have been installed as -430 chalk to make the College Football Playoff. While he can’t take credit for all of the team’s success, it’s time to give Kevin Jennings the fantasy due he deserves.
In his first full season as a starter, the sophomore pivot didn’t disappoint. Jennings accumulated 2,746 passing yards and 17 touchdowns for the Mustangs this season, getting better as the year went on. He’s thrown for at least 298 yards in three of his past four outings while throwing nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. Moreover, he’s seen a sharp increase in his accuracy, completing 69.9% of his passes over the four-game stretch. Combining those totals reveals a sterling 9.4 yards per pass attempt, boosting all of his metrics and his fantasy standing over the final month of the regular season. Still, Jennings’ salary doesn’t reflect his fantasy outlook, also making him one of the top value plays.
The Clemson Tigers scratched and clawed their way into the ACC Championship Game, and they did so in spite of their passing defense. They gave up a middling 216.7 passing yards per game throughout the campaign, with that average inflating to 234.0 against their last three FBS opponents. The more concerning trend is that two of those contests came against run-first schools, underscoring their ineffective secondary.
Jennings will exacerbate those concerns with another solid showing on Saturday. We predict monster fantasy scoring from the Mustangs’ quarterback as he leads SMU to victory.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Cam Skattebo (Arizona State Sun Devils): $10,300 DraftKings
Taking a discount approach on quarterbacks will allow DFS punters to splurge on running backs. More specifically, it’s worth prioritizing Cam Skattebo as his Arizona State Sun Devils look to get past the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game.
By now we all know what Skattebo means to the Sun Devils’ offense. But you could have inferred as much from his beefy salary. The senior is the offensive catalyst that drives ASU’s production and he plays a primary role in the passing and ground games. In his final season of eligibility, Skattebo has accumulated 1,398 rushing and 468 receiving yards while finding the end zone on 19 occasions.
While he’s been a focal point all year, we’ve seen an increase in his usage over the final few weeks of the season. Skattebo has recorded at least 21 carries in four straight games, crossing the century mark in all but one of those contests. Further, he’s caught all 12 of his targets for 185 receiving yards. On the season, that puts him at 32.6 fantasy points per game, but that benchmark has jumped to 37.9 over his last four.
Iowa State has struggled at containing opposing running backs all season. They give up an average of 173.6 rushing yards per game, with four of the previous six lead backs eclipsing 116 rushing yards. All signs point to another dominant outing, and we wouldn’t be surprised if Skattebo still found a way to surpass his projected ceiling.
Bill Davis (Lousiana Ragin’ Cajuns): $4,900 DraftKings
We are bypassing some of the more prominent names on the board to highlight the top value on the main slate. Bill Davis has made a significant impact in his freshman season. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ running back has emerged as the preferred rushing option in Louisiana’s ground game and seen a massive surge in scoring over the last few weeks. That upward trajectory carries him into Saturday’s tilt versus Marshall.
Davis got off to a tepid start. The Louisiana native averaged just 10.9 carries per game through the first eight games of the season, falling below nine in four of those contests. In the four games since, Davis is up to 15.8 rushing attempts per game, correlating with a huge jump in scoring and fantasy production. Across the four-game sample, Davis has totaled six touchdowns while averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game. Moreover, he’s eclipsed 21.4 fantasy points in two of those four contests.
Undoubtedly, Davis’ production and fantasy potential increase versus a shaky Marshall run defense. The Thundering Herd give up a whopping 198.0 rushing yards per game, including 218.0 over their last three. Last week, James Madison Dukes running back Jobi Malary put up 106 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. The week prior, ODU’s Aaron Young dropped 111 yards and two scores on 18 carries.
That sets the stage for another effective outing from Davis. The underclassman should have no problem continuing his ascent in the Sun Belt Championship and vastly outproducing the implied value of his modest salary.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Jayden Higgins (Iowa State Cyclones): $7,500 DraftKings
It’s time to make room for Jayden Higgins on your fantasy rosters. The Cyclones’ receiver has moved to the top of Rocco Becht’s progression chart and is looking to put a stamp on his career-best campaign before moving into the playoffs.
Higgins has looked exceptional all season, but it took a while for him to become the primary pass-catching option. The senior had just 19 targets through the first three weeks of the season, watching his role grow exponentially beyond that. In the nine games since, Higgins has been targeted at least 11 times in all but two of those contests. More importantly, increased usage hasn’t compromised his efficiency.
Throughout his senior campaign, Higgins has posted a top-end 64.5% catch rate while averaging 13.4 yards per reception. Further, he’s been a touchdown beacon since the start of the campaign, finding paydirt in all but three of his outings.
ASU’s pass defense is beatable. Three of their last four opponents have eclipsed 229 passing yards versus the Sun Devils, driving their four-game average up to 227.5 yards per game. Assuredly, that benchmark will continue to climb against a vaunted ISU aerial assault.
Iowa State’s offensive success depends heavily on its passing game. Becht, Higgins, and Jaylin Noel have been up to the challenge this season, and we expect them to continue their assault against Arizona State. This game could very quickly surpass its modest total, as the aforementioned Skattebo and Higgins lead their respective offenses downfield. We are anticipating an elite effort from Higgins on Saturday.
Tyler Warren (Penn State Nittany Lions): $7,700 DraftKings
The Big Ten expansion has diluted some of the attention that is typically heaped on the Penn State Nittany Lions; however, they’ll have the chance to captivate the country’s attention with Saturday’s finale against the Oregon Ducks. Penn State wouldn’t be in this position without its lauded passing attack, which depends on peak production from Tyler Warren.
The Nittany Lions tight end has been Drew Allar’s safety blanket all season. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, totaling 101, 81, and 978, respectively. Inherently, in those totals lie some of the best pass-catching metrics in the country. Warren has a mighty 80.2% catch rate while averaging 12.4 yards per reception as a tight end. Not surprisingly, he’s meant more to the offense when it matters most, with Warren eclipsing 100 receiving yards in two of his previous three, adding two scores over that stretch.
For Penn State to have any chance of knocking the Ducks off their stride, Warren and Allar need to be on point. We expect them to be exactly that, using their recent chemistry and effectiveness to poke holes in Oregon’s defense. Warren is on his way to reaching his fantasy ceiling in the Big Ten Championship Game, and is a must-roster in any format.
Roderick Daniels (SMU Mustangs): $4,000 DraftKings
Finally, we conclude Week 15’s top fantasy selections with another value play that satisfies our usual stacking recommendation. Roderick Daniels has been a vital part of the Mustangs’ offense this season, and for Kevin Jennings to reach optimal production, Daniels also needs to be at his best. DFS bettors should expect that on Saturday’s main slate.
As is the case with many value plays, there’s a contrarian angle to Daniels’ outlook. The senior is coming off a less effective outing, totaling just 42 yards in last week’s win over the Cal Golden Bears. Nevertheless, he had the highest target share of any receiver in that contest and has some robust complementary metrics over his recent sample. Daniels has posted a solid 77.3% catch rate over his last four games while totaling a respectable 209 receiving yards. Moreover, his eight-target effort last time out represents the upward trajectory we’re expecting from Daniels against the Tigers.
Jennings has a plethora of pass-catchers to distribute the ball to, but Daniels remains one of his preferred options. He leads the team in receiving yards, while ranking second in receptions and third in target share. That dependence will be nurtured when it matters most, with Jennings relying on Daniels to lead the onslaught against the Tigers.
Of all the Mustangs’ receivers, no one has a higher ceiling than Daniels. He’s primed for a solid showing after an underwhelming effort last time out, and could be an x-factor in deciding the outcomes of larger tournaments. Irrespective of format, we think Daniels is worth including on the last main slate of the season.
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