Fake Trend of the Day
Madison Bumgarner is a strong option tonight. He leads his position in strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9), WHIP, Pro Trends, opponent implied Vegas runs, and average points per game at both DraftKings and FanDuel over the last month. The only caveat is that the Athletics’ projected lineup is averaging a slate-low .197 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). The question isn’t whether Bumgarner will produce, because he will. The question is whether Bumgarner’s potential Upside is worth paying for.
Over the last three seasons, only 733 hitters have averaged fewer than .200 SO/AB and faced a pitcher in the 99 percentile of strikeouts. That number may seem like a lot, but take into account that even on the most minimal of slates (typically eight games), at least 144 players are guaranteed one plate appearance. Extrapolate that over the course of three seasons and you’ll understand why it’s so rare. Per our free Trends tool, those hitters have averaged a +0.36 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The count shrinks substantially when factoring in a WHIP between 1 and 1.1, but the results — +0.72 Plus/Minus at DraftKings — still favor the offense.
Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Bumgarner is the only truly elite pitching option today, costing over $11,000 on both sites, but he maybe shouldn’t be placed on a pedestal for tournaments. He is, though, still the option you want in cash games.
Zach Davies: Ace
It takes playing the all-day or early slate to acquire the services of Davies, which might be worth it. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six consecutive starts, averaging a +9.50 Plus/Minus per game at DraftKings in that span. His average of 25.9 DraftKings points in his last five games is second only to Bumgarner’s average of 27.5. He is also recently allowing a hard-hit rate 12 percentage points lower than his yearly average. If there is a comp to Bumgarner today, Davies could be it.
Injury Watch
Stephen Matz had his start pushed back Wednesday in order to allow his pitching elbow to rest a bit more. He’ll likely undergo bone spur surgery in the offseason, but this season remains the focus. There’s currently no hard pitch limit being reported for Matz, but the Mets are said to be approaching his start cautiously. That doesn’t sound assuring, even if you’re contemplating owning him only in tournaments, where he should have (very) little ownership.
Taijuan Walker is in a similar position, as he wasn’t even listed in the Mariners’ initial scheduled rotation. He missed his last start due to tendinitis in his right foot and was later inserted over Wade Miley. The Orioles’ average SO/AB is .017 more than that of any other offense tonight, but Walker has also allowed 1.48 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the last year. He’s an insanely sharp play in GPPs given his potential Upside — but his floor might be the lowest of any pitcher tonight.
Advanced Stats or Results
There are two ways to think about Gio Gonzalez’s performance of late:
No. 1: Gonzalez has posted a 7.16 earned run average in June, averaging a -4.76 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his five starts this month.
No. 2: Gonzalez’s batted-ball distance allowed in the past two weeks is 21 feet fewer than that of any other pitcher in this slate. Despite his negative Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span, he has allowed an exit velocity four miles per hour lower than that of his yearly average, all the while giving up only one home run.
The latter way of looking at his production seems more relevant. His June xFIP is the lowest he has produced in any month this season.
And Chris Young Shall Perish
(Sorry. Just trying out new names for my upcoming metal band.)
There are pitchers facing offenses with higher implied Vegas totals tonight, but none have allowed a batted-ball distance greater than Young has recently allowed. In fact, his 279-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is a whopping 40 feet farther than that of his yearly average. His 2.62 HR/9 permitted is also 0.55 high than any other pitcher’s. Aside from the guys who skipped their last starts due to injury, Young arguably has the lowest floor in this slate.
Does Washington Trump All?
The Nationals are implied to score 5.4 runs against Brandon Finnegan tonight, 0.3 runs more than the next offense. Look closely at their lineup and you’ll see why. Their first two projected hitters (Michael Taylor and Jayson Werth) have a Weighted On-Base (wOBA) Differential in the top-10 at their position, and four of the first six batters have positive differentials across the board. Finnegan has also had a stroke of luck this season, as shown by the -1.19 difference between his ERA and xFIP — a usual sign that regression is imminent.
Taylor, Werth, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan Zimmerman are viable in cash games. Still, it’s concerning for tournaments that Finnegan has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five performances, averaging 15.7 DraftKings points in that span. If you think that they’ll be the highest-owned stack, there are enough concerns to get off of them, especially with the Cardinals and Orioles available.
Other Hitters
Tyler Flowers, ATL
It’s not that I don’t think that Wei-Yin Chen, a lefty, isn’t a decent play against the Braves, who are still struggling against said handedness. I just recognize that Chen has allowed the second-highest batted-ball distance among available pitchers recently. Flowers has coincidently averaged the highest batted-ball distance among catchers over his last eight starts.
Justin Bour, MIA
Atlanta will reportedly limit Michael Foltynewicz to a maximum of 90 pitches tonight. Fortunately, that’s more than enough time for Bour to flourish, given his .207 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential. Note that only Anthony Rizzo and Joey Votta have recorded a batted-ball distance farther than Bour’s over the last 15 days.
Devon Travis, TOR
Travis may be facing Carlos Carrasco, whose batted-ball distance allowed has recently been strong, but Travis has experienced an inexplicable -$1,200 Salary Change at DraftKings overnight. That, despite the fact that his .114 ISO Differential is top-three among second basemen in the slate.
Brad Miller, TB
Miller’s .125 ISO Differential trails only Troy Tulowitzki’s (.154) among shortstops. What’s more is that Jordan Zimmerman has quietly failed to meet expectations in eight of his last nine starts. I’d even consider going beyond Miller in tournaments and rostering Rays’ hitters such as Logan Morrison (.082 ISO Differential), Evan Longoria (.450 slugging percentage), and Desmond Jennings (.125 ISO Differential).
Adam Jones, BAL
As mentioned earlier, an Orioles stack could be a nice pivot away from the Nationals tonight. That begins (literally) with leadoff hitter Adam Jones, whose batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is top-three among outfielders in this slate. His average of 12.1 DraftKings points in June is tied with Steven Moya’s for the highest at their position.
Good luck!
