UFC

UFC 310 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pantoja vs. Asakura, More Saturday Fights

The UFC is nearly ready to put 2024 in the books, with the last pay-per-view card going down this Saturday. The main event features promotional newcomer Kai Asakura, looking to become the UFC’s first Japanese champion against Alexandre Pantoja, with undefeated welterweights Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov in the co-main event.

The 14-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card airing on PPV at 10:00 p.m.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Alexandre Pantoja ($8,800) vs. Kai Asakura ($7,400)

Alexandre Pantoja has fairly thoroughly cleared out the top of the UFC’s flyweight division. He’s beaten the two top-ranked contenders twice each, with those two holding wins over almost everyone else.

That’s why it made sense for the UFC to look outside the organization for a challenger to Pantoja’s belt. They found former Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura, an exciting fighter who’s gone 5-1 over his last six fights.

While both fighters in this contest are reasonably well-rounded, it’s a bit of a striker vs. grappler affair. Pantoja, of course, is the grappler, with 23 takedowns landed across his three flyweight title fights. Asakura is an aggressive striker, with excellent boxing and knees — and a limited interest in defense.

Asakura’s career losses have mostly been against fighters who can exploit his defensive holes on the feet. That’s not really Pantoja’s game, so expect him to look to grapple his way to victory. From a DFS standpoint, that should give both fighters fairly strong floors, making this an excellent stacking spot.

Personally I’m much higher on Asakura than the broader market, so I’ll be rostering him at above-field levels in this one. Whoever wins has a very strong shot at making the optimal though, so you’ll want one or the other.

Co–Main Event

Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,200) vs. Ian Garry ($7,200)

The other five-round fight at UFC 310 is a welterweight number-one contender matchup between two undefeated rising stars.

The heavy favorite is Shavkat Rakhmonov, who is 18-0 as a pro, with every fight ending inside the distance. Ian Garry is 15-0 as a pro, but his last three fights have hit the judges — including a somewhat contested split decision against Geoff Neal.

The rangy and patient Garry typically suppresses DFS scoring for both himself and his opponent. He’s fairly solid defensively, both striking and grappling. While he has solid per-minute striking numbers, those were largely run up against much lesser competition, with pedestrian marks in recent fights.

Rakhmonov is the much more aggressive of the pair, though he’s heavily reliant on a finish to pick up a solid DFS score. If Garry can slow the pace down, it’s entirely possible that neither man ends up with a usable score (relative to their salaries).

For that reason, I’m certainly not stacking this one in cash games. I’ll find some value elsewhere while getting Rakhmonov, who has -135 odds to pick up a finish. He’s not a priority for GPPs, though, as if that finish comes beyond the first two rounds or so, he could easily fall short of the optimal lineup.

The Easy Chalk

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($9,400)

The three heaviest favorites on the card are all projecting in a similar range, with only about eight points between their median projections. Nzechukwu is the cheapest of the bunch though, which should correlate to him having the highest ownership.

He’s roughly a -600 favorite in the opening bout of the night against Lukasz Brzeski ($6,800). The Polish heavyweight tested positive for PEDs following his 2021 Contender Series win and has gone 1-4 in the UFC since then.

Two of those losses were via first-round knockout, and Nzechukwu is a massive, powerful striker. Just one of the favorites 12 UFC fights involved him landing a takedown, so it’s knockout or bust in terms of upside — but he’s relatively likely to get a knockout with -145 odds.

Getting up to him in cash games isn’t a priority for me, as if the knockout doesn’t come early, he still might not finish with a great score. However, he obviously has plenty of tournament upside plus a massive floor since it’s hard to see Brzeski pulling off an upset.

The Upside Play

Chase Hooper ($9,700)

The other end of the heavy favorites spectrum is Hooper, who’s the most expensive but should garner the lowest ownership. The 25-year-old Hooper is taking on Clay Guida ($6,500), who turns 43 the day after UFC 310. That’s the largest age gap in modern UFC history.

Unlike Nzechukwu, there are multiple paths to a big score for Hooper. He averages about a takedown and a half per 15 minutes but has a path to racking them up against the famously hard-to-hold-down Guida. Hooper has also shown greatly improved striking since moving up to featherweight, dropping his opponent in his last fight before finishing with a submission.

The grappling is the real appeal for Hooper though. Besides MMA, he regularly competes in submission grappling events. He lost a split decision in a grappling match against former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling this year, but prior to that picked up a first-round submission win in his previous match. His opponent for that match? Clay Guida.

It’s hard to see things getting better for Guida in a full-contact fight, especially with Hooper continuing to move towards his prime and Guida away from his. I like Hooper as a leverage play for GPPs here, though I won’t worry about trying to find the salary for cash games.

The Value Play

Aljamain Sterling ($7,300)

Speaking of Aljamain Sterling, he has what is likely a No. 1 contender fight against Mosvar Evloev ($8,900) on the UFC 310 prelims. Both fighters are known for their grappling, with Sterling averaging more than two takedowns per 15 minutes and Evloev nearly five.

Neither is known for their finishing ability, particularly the favored Evloev. He probably has deserved a title fight for a while now, but all eight of his UFC fights (all wins) have gone the distance. That’s despite fighting opponents less capable of grappling with him than Sterling.

That gives “The Funkmaster” a very solid floor, as he’s unlikely to be the first fighter finished by Evloev in the UFC. The line has also shifted towards Sterling throughout the week, making him somewhat of a live underdog.

He has plenty of takedown upside of his own — he landed four takedowns on former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo — and could also turn this into a striking match by denying Evloev’s attempts. Neither man is a great striker, but it’s at worst a toss up.

I’m interested in Sterling in all contest types. Cash games for his rock-solid floor, and GPPs for his potential upside in a win.

The Contrarian Choice

Kron Gracie ($6,700)

As a forewarning for this one, my interest in Gracie is exclusively for large-field GPPs. He’s a +600 or so underdog for a very good reason. With that said — there might be some sneaky upside here.

The grandson of BJJ founder Helio Gracie has tried to live his family’s legacy inside the UFC. He’s an extremely one-dimensional jiu-jitsu player who hasn’t learned much in the way of either wrestling or striking when transitioning to MMA.

Of course, he’s also one of the best jiu-jitsu players in the world, with world championships in both gi and nogi competitions. He’s had a hard time transitioning to MMA because most opponents simply refuse to engage him on the ground, instead choosing to just stand up and force him into striking matches.

His opponent this time around, Bryce Mitchell ($9,500), might be the one fighter who doesn’t take that route. Mitchell is a very strong grappler with questionable striking himself, coming off a brutal knockout at the hands of Josh Emmett.

Mitchell also isn’t known for his decision making, so when combined with some potential hesitance to exchange on the feet could lead to him grappling with Gracie. Any win for Gracie obviously gets him in the optimal at his price tag, so I want some exposure for larger-field contests.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Nate Landwehr ($8,400) vs. Dooho Choi ($7,800)

The main card opens up for what should be an exciting fight between Nate “The Train” Landwehr and “The Korean Superboy” Dooho Choi.

Landwehr is known for his all-out brawls and dramatic comebacks, and as he puts it, “If you don’t beat me, I’m probably going to win.” He’s been knocked down in all three of his UFC losses and topped 100 points in his last three wins.

Choi has eight fights in the UFC — with six of those ending via knockout. All four of his wins have been in the first two rounds.

That makes this an extremely binary fight between the fast-starting Choi and the indefatigable Landwehr. Whoever comes out on top should do so with a big score. Given their fairly tight salaries that also means a likely spot in the optimal for the winner, so I’ll be near 100% exposure to this fight.

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The UFC is nearly ready to put 2024 in the books, with the last pay-per-view card going down this Saturday. The main event features promotional newcomer Kai Asakura, looking to become the UFC’s first Japanese champion against Alexandre Pantoja, with undefeated welterweights Ian Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov in the co-main event.

The 14-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card airing on PPV at 10:00 p.m.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Alexandre Pantoja ($8,800) vs. Kai Asakura ($7,400)

Alexandre Pantoja has fairly thoroughly cleared out the top of the UFC’s flyweight division. He’s beaten the two top-ranked contenders twice each, with those two holding wins over almost everyone else.

That’s why it made sense for the UFC to look outside the organization for a challenger to Pantoja’s belt. They found former Rizin bantamweight champion Kai Asakura, an exciting fighter who’s gone 5-1 over his last six fights.

While both fighters in this contest are reasonably well-rounded, it’s a bit of a striker vs. grappler affair. Pantoja, of course, is the grappler, with 23 takedowns landed across his three flyweight title fights. Asakura is an aggressive striker, with excellent boxing and knees — and a limited interest in defense.

Asakura’s career losses have mostly been against fighters who can exploit his defensive holes on the feet. That’s not really Pantoja’s game, so expect him to look to grapple his way to victory. From a DFS standpoint, that should give both fighters fairly strong floors, making this an excellent stacking spot.

Personally I’m much higher on Asakura than the broader market, so I’ll be rostering him at above-field levels in this one. Whoever wins has a very strong shot at making the optimal though, so you’ll want one or the other.

Co–Main Event

Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,200) vs. Ian Garry ($7,200)

The other five-round fight at UFC 310 is a welterweight number-one contender matchup between two undefeated rising stars.

The heavy favorite is Shavkat Rakhmonov, who is 18-0 as a pro, with every fight ending inside the distance. Ian Garry is 15-0 as a pro, but his last three fights have hit the judges — including a somewhat contested split decision against Geoff Neal.

The rangy and patient Garry typically suppresses DFS scoring for both himself and his opponent. He’s fairly solid defensively, both striking and grappling. While he has solid per-minute striking numbers, those were largely run up against much lesser competition, with pedestrian marks in recent fights.

Rakhmonov is the much more aggressive of the pair, though he’s heavily reliant on a finish to pick up a solid DFS score. If Garry can slow the pace down, it’s entirely possible that neither man ends up with a usable score (relative to their salaries).

For that reason, I’m certainly not stacking this one in cash games. I’ll find some value elsewhere while getting Rakhmonov, who has -135 odds to pick up a finish. He’s not a priority for GPPs, though, as if that finish comes beyond the first two rounds or so, he could easily fall short of the optimal lineup.

The Easy Chalk

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($9,400)

The three heaviest favorites on the card are all projecting in a similar range, with only about eight points between their median projections. Nzechukwu is the cheapest of the bunch though, which should correlate to him having the highest ownership.

He’s roughly a -600 favorite in the opening bout of the night against Lukasz Brzeski ($6,800). The Polish heavyweight tested positive for PEDs following his 2021 Contender Series win and has gone 1-4 in the UFC since then.

Two of those losses were via first-round knockout, and Nzechukwu is a massive, powerful striker. Just one of the favorites 12 UFC fights involved him landing a takedown, so it’s knockout or bust in terms of upside — but he’s relatively likely to get a knockout with -145 odds.

Getting up to him in cash games isn’t a priority for me, as if the knockout doesn’t come early, he still might not finish with a great score. However, he obviously has plenty of tournament upside plus a massive floor since it’s hard to see Brzeski pulling off an upset.

The Upside Play

Chase Hooper ($9,700)

The other end of the heavy favorites spectrum is Hooper, who’s the most expensive but should garner the lowest ownership. The 25-year-old Hooper is taking on Clay Guida ($6,500), who turns 43 the day after UFC 310. That’s the largest age gap in modern UFC history.

Unlike Nzechukwu, there are multiple paths to a big score for Hooper. He averages about a takedown and a half per 15 minutes but has a path to racking them up against the famously hard-to-hold-down Guida. Hooper has also shown greatly improved striking since moving up to featherweight, dropping his opponent in his last fight before finishing with a submission.

The grappling is the real appeal for Hooper though. Besides MMA, he regularly competes in submission grappling events. He lost a split decision in a grappling match against former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling this year, but prior to that picked up a first-round submission win in his previous match. His opponent for that match? Clay Guida.

It’s hard to see things getting better for Guida in a full-contact fight, especially with Hooper continuing to move towards his prime and Guida away from his. I like Hooper as a leverage play for GPPs here, though I won’t worry about trying to find the salary for cash games.

The Value Play

Aljamain Sterling ($7,300)

Speaking of Aljamain Sterling, he has what is likely a No. 1 contender fight against Mosvar Evloev ($8,900) on the UFC 310 prelims. Both fighters are known for their grappling, with Sterling averaging more than two takedowns per 15 minutes and Evloev nearly five.

Neither is known for their finishing ability, particularly the favored Evloev. He probably has deserved a title fight for a while now, but all eight of his UFC fights (all wins) have gone the distance. That’s despite fighting opponents less capable of grappling with him than Sterling.

That gives “The Funkmaster” a very solid floor, as he’s unlikely to be the first fighter finished by Evloev in the UFC. The line has also shifted towards Sterling throughout the week, making him somewhat of a live underdog.

He has plenty of takedown upside of his own — he landed four takedowns on former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo — and could also turn this into a striking match by denying Evloev’s attempts. Neither man is a great striker, but it’s at worst a toss up.

I’m interested in Sterling in all contest types. Cash games for his rock-solid floor, and GPPs for his potential upside in a win.

The Contrarian Choice

Kron Gracie ($6,700)

As a forewarning for this one, my interest in Gracie is exclusively for large-field GPPs. He’s a +600 or so underdog for a very good reason. With that said — there might be some sneaky upside here.

The grandson of BJJ founder Helio Gracie has tried to live his family’s legacy inside the UFC. He’s an extremely one-dimensional jiu-jitsu player who hasn’t learned much in the way of either wrestling or striking when transitioning to MMA.

Of course, he’s also one of the best jiu-jitsu players in the world, with world championships in both gi and nogi competitions. He’s had a hard time transitioning to MMA because most opponents simply refuse to engage him on the ground, instead choosing to just stand up and force him into striking matches.

His opponent this time around, Bryce Mitchell ($9,500), might be the one fighter who doesn’t take that route. Mitchell is a very strong grappler with questionable striking himself, coming off a brutal knockout at the hands of Josh Emmett.

Mitchell also isn’t known for his decision making, so when combined with some potential hesitance to exchange on the feet could lead to him grappling with Gracie. Any win for Gracie obviously gets him in the optimal at his price tag, so I want some exposure for larger-field contests.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Nate Landwehr ($8,400) vs. Dooho Choi ($7,800)

The main card opens up for what should be an exciting fight between Nate “The Train” Landwehr and “The Korean Superboy” Dooho Choi.

Landwehr is known for his all-out brawls and dramatic comebacks, and as he puts it, “If you don’t beat me, I’m probably going to win.” He’s been knocked down in all three of his UFC losses and topped 100 points in his last three wins.

Choi has eight fights in the UFC — with six of those ending via knockout. All four of his wins have been in the first two rounds.

That makes this an extremely binary fight between the fast-starting Choi and the indefatigable Landwehr. Whoever comes out on top should do so with a big score. Given their fairly tight salaries that also means a likely spot in the optimal for the winner, so I’ll be near 100% exposure to this fight.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights UFC St. Louis DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.