At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Underdog Hitters with Low Pro Trends
Pro Trends allow you easily to locate players likely to do well. Double-digit Pro Trends require your immediate attention. Of course, players who are in suboptimal spots tend to have few Pro Trends.
Alas, I don’t discriminate. If a batter lacks Pro Trends, I aim to leverage his perceived poor situation. Is it possible to find batters who could do well in ‘bad spots’ that might not be as bad as they seem (at least from a DFS perspective)? Yes.
Step 1: Trends > Pro Trends > 2 to 4
Pro Trends “are specific angles designed to help you find value.” By reducing the number of Pro Trends, we’re screening for hitters in neutral or negative positions.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Favorite/Dog > Dog
Underdogs are expected to score fewer runs than favorites, likely diminishing ownership numbers. As long as underdog hitters experience a price reduction due to their circumstances, they require fewer fantasy points to meet and exceed expected value.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Runs > 4 to 4.6
One FantasyLabs Pro Trend stipulates that teams must be implied to score at least 4.7 runs. Here, we’ve calibrated the filter a skosh below the Pro Trend threshold, finding hitters who historically produce a positive Plus/Minus despite having few Pro Trends.
Step 4: Player Filters > Lineup Order > 5 to 7
Another Pro Trend rewards hitters located in the top four spots. I expected a small dip in Plus/Minus when adjusting this filter, but amazingly within this trend the top seven spots in the order have consistently surpassed salary-based expectations. In targeting batters who hit fifth through seventh we might be able to find some players who have very low ownership percentages in guaranteed prize pools.
Step 5: Trend > Park Factor > 50 to 70
At this point, I’m surgically undercutting Pro Trends in an attempt to squeeze value from the end of the batting order. A Park Factor of at least 80 qualifies as a Pro Trend. Selecting the next highest tier improves the trend’s viability.
On DraftKings, you can see that these hitters do fairly well. On FanDuel, these hitters have historically supplied a 0.99 Plus/Minus on 40.6% Consistency. In 2016, the Plus/Minus improved to +1.33.
Current Matches
On DraftKings, qualifying for the anti-Pro Trend trend are three Brewers: Chris Carter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Aaron Hill. The opposing pitcher, Brock Stewart, will make his major league debut for the Dodgers. On FanDuel, the list of current matches shrinks to include Nieuwenhuis and Hill.
Seven of the Brewers’ projected hitters on FanDuel possess a Bargain Rating of at least 82 percent, and all of them currently claim no more than three Pro Trends.
Again, these are batters who look like they are in a bad spot, but they have the potential to outperform on very low ownership.
Good luck!
