The NBA starts another work week after a long holiday weekend with a four-game slate on Monday night. The lighter slate is to accommodate the 11 games on Tuesday that wrap up Group Play in the NBA Emirates Cup. Before those contests, though, there are four solid matchups on Monday, all of which get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET or 8:00 p.m. ET. Of the eight teams in play this Monday, five are playing for the second day in a row, with the Celtics, Nets, Lakers, Heat, and Pelicans all finishing a back-to-back. It will be especially important to keep a close eye on the latest news and updates, as the models will adjust to compensate for any availability updates before tip off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
For the third straight game, Trae Young is probable with Achilles tendinitis. He has been playing through the injury and putting up good numbers for the Hawks. He struggled a little in Charlotte on Saturday, but he is in a good matchup to bounce back as he and the Hawks host the injury-plagued Pelicans. Atlanta hassled the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and Trae has the highest median and ceiling projection of all point guards.
Young had just 14 points and five assists in Saturday’s loss but had run off an impressive streak of five straight double-doubles prior to that. The high point of that stretch was a 20-point, 22-assist performance last Wednesday that resulted in 58.5 DraftKings points in a win over the Cavs. He had over 50 DraftKings points in three straight games at that point, although he has fallen short of that mark in his two games since then.
As long as his Achilles injury doesn’t slow him down or the game turns into a blowout, and the Hawks get him some rest, Young should be able to bounce back with a strong performance on Monday. On the season, he has produced an impressive 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.25% usage rate. Maybe facing former teammate Dejounte Murray will motivate him to put up a big total on Monday.
Value
The Nets will be without Cam Thomas (hamstring) for a few weeks and lost Cameron Johnson (ankle), Ben Simmons (knee) and Zaiare Williams (knee) to new injuries on Sunday. Dorian Finney-Smith (knee) also missed that game. Johnson, Simmons, Willians, and DFS could return on Monday, but if any of them are sidelined, there will be a ton of value available from the Nets. Keon Johnson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on Monday and Dennis Schroder is right behind him with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus. Both are solid plays at their price points, especially if Johnson and Simmons sit.
Johnson has scored double-digit points in each of his last two games, producing 15 points and 29 DraftKings points on Friday, followed by 12 points and 24.5 DraftKings points on Sunday. He hit multiple three-pointers in each of those games and got more playing time to fill in for Thomas. He could end up a great play under $4,000 if he’s in line for more minutes and usage on Monday.
Schroder may have to carry the load if Johnson joins Thomas on the sidelined. Of the players who have played 10+ games, Schroder ranks second on the team behind only Thomas with a 24.9% usage rate, and he has produced 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. With Thomas off the floor, Schroder has produced 1.21 DraftKings points per minute, and his usage jumps to 30.1%. He has scored 20 points or more and exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games dating back to the game in which Thomas was injured.
Schroder isn’t as much of a bargain as Johnson, but both may end up with big workloads if Johnson, Williams or Simmons is sidelined. It’s nice that both are also shooting guards eligible, so you can use both in your lineup fairly easily on Monday.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray will get a chance to go up against the team that traded him this offseason as he faces Trae Young and the Hawks. In his three games since returning, Murray’s shot has been off, and he has fallen short of salary-based expectations. He did play under 30 minutes on Sunday in a rout in New York, though, so he should be relatively fresh and ready to go for the second game of the back-to-back. It’s a fun narrative to back, and maybe the revenge game is what he needs to get his fantasy production jump-started after his long layoff with a hand injury.
Ayo Dosunmu has scored 12 points or more in four of his last five games and produced over 25 fantasy points in three of those contests. He moved into the starting lineup five games ago and is averaging 32.1 minutes per game over that span. He has played the second-most minutes on the team over that span and produced 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with a 16.4% usage rate. His increased role should help his counting stats push him to be a good mid-level value if he keeps hitting double-digit scoring as well.
Veteran Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five games and has scored 13 points or more in three of his last four. He doesn’t usually take a ton of shots, which limits his ceiling, but he’s a very strong midrange value who usually finds ways to get involved for Minnesota. In what could be a statement game for the Wolves, Conley is a solid mid-range play under $5,000.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Timberwolves were able to snap a four-game losing skid and knock off the visiting Clippers on Friday night despite a down game from Anthony Edwards. Edwards still had 21 points and 34.5 DraftKings points, but his streak of three straight games exceeding salary-based expectations came to an end. He’ll look to bounce back and help his team get a win over the other team from Los Angeles on Monday night.
The team’s adjustment to the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t been exactly smooth, and they enter his matchup one game under .500. Edwards leads the team with a 31.2% usage rate and has averaged 27.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while producing a solid 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. He had 50+ DraftKings points in three straight before Friday’s down game.
Edwards has the highest median and ceiling projection at shooting guard on Monday by a wide margin and is a strong pay-up play to consider at the position.
Value
One of the exciting new features this year on FantasyLabs this season is our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections, Lakers rookie Dalton Knecht has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only Keon Johnson.
Knecht had just six points and seven rebounds on Sunday in a win over the Jazz, shooting just 2-of-10 from the field. On the season, he has a 48% FG% and has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. He should bounce back from Sunday’s outlier and could be asked to take on even more work depending on who else the Lakers don’t have available on the second night of the back-to-back.
Over his last 10 games, Knecht has produced 0.93 DraftKings points per minute while playing over 31 minutes per game and scoring double-digit points seven times. Even though Monday’s game could be lower scoring, it should be a good bounce-back spot for Knecht as long as he stays in the starting five.
Fast Break
Along with Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum has also recently returned to the Pelicans backcourt. Without Brandon Ingram (calf) and Zion Williamson (hamstring), Murray and McCollum will have to carry the offense as soon as they’re ready to do so. McCollum had 30 points and 41 DraftKings points on Friday before struggling in limited minutes in Sunday’s rout. He brings the third-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections behind just Edwards and Schroder.
Payton Pritchard has scored 20+ points and produced 35+ DraftKings points in three straight games coming into Monday’s home matchup with Miami. His value depends largely on the availability of Jaylen Brown (illness) and Derrick White (foot) who both missed Sunday’s game but could return Monday. If either or both of them are out or other Celtics stars sit, Pritchard will be an excellent value play as he takes on more of the load. His salary has risen to $5,500 with his recent surge, but he could still be a good play, depending on who else Boston has available.
A bargain alternative to Keon Johnson is Nickeil Alexander-Walker of the Timberwolves, who has found meaningful ways to contribute off the bench. He had a double-double and 31 DraftKings points on Friday night after posting 17 points and 32.5 DraftKings points on Wednesday in a loss to the Kings. On the season, his role and production have fluctuated, but he has been playing very well lately, making him a strong option to consider at only $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In both the ShotQuality and FantasyLabs projections, Jayson Tatum has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections at small forward. The ShotQuality projections give him the second-highest ceiling and median projections on the entire slate, behind only Anthony Davis (discussed below).
Tatum carried more work than usual on Sunday without Brown and White and finished with 27 field goal attempts and a 35.6% usage rate on his way to 33 points and 54 DraftKings points. Depending on who the Celtics have available on Monday, he could be in for more work once again at home against the Heat.
On the season, Tatum is producing an elite 1.48 DraftKings points per minute and 53.2 DraftKings points per game. He has put up over 50 DraftKings points in five of his last eight games and should carry heavy enough usage again on Monday to make that total definitely a possibility.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Trey Murphy III has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards and all power forwards. He has had to pick up more work with Ingram and Williamson out and has been productive since returning from his own injury earlier this season.
In his eight games, he has averaged 30.7 DraftKings points in 31.6 minutes per game. He had posted over 36 DraftKings points in three straight games before Sunday’s blowout in New York. He’s averaging a career-high 17.8 points and 5.4 rebounds despite his efficiency being a bit down. If he can get back to his previous efficiency, he can be even better than we’ve seen this season as he helps the Pelicans work through this stretch without their frontcourt stars.
Murphy has not played the second game of a back-to-back yet this season, so be sure to double-check his availability for this matchup vs. the Hawks. If he’s out, Brandon Boston Jr., Jamal Cain, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl would be in for more minutes and workload.
Fast Break
Cameron Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in the FantasyLabs projections and will be a good play with a high ceiling vs. the Bulls if he is able to play through the knee injury he sustained on Sunday. Johnson had 26 points, and 33.5 DraftKings points in 35 minutes before leaving.
If Johnson is out, one other Nets value option to consider would be Jalen Wilson, who scored double-digit points in six of his last 11 but sometimes doesn’t contribute very much in other categories. An increased role would make him a strong play under $5,000.
Hawks small forwards De’Andre Hunter and Zaccarie Risacher have the third and fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on Monday. Both have exceeded salary-based expectations in their last two games. Risacher has scored double-digit points in three straight games with over 20 DraftKings points in each contest, which is enough to make him a nice option at just over $4,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum and LeBron James have the top two ceiling, median, and floor projections at power forward, but Jalen Johnson is a better play on a value basis due to his higher Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal. The Hawks forward has the third-highest median and ceiling projection at the position and will look to continue his breakout season in this fantasy-friendly matchup with the Pelicans.
Johnson has scored 20+ points in five straight games and has posted three double-doubles in his last six games. He missed a double-double in the other three games by just one rebound or one assist, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games as a result. He’s producing 1.38 DraftKings points per minute during that impressive run and ranks third on the team with a 21.9% usage rate.
His multi-category production makes him a great option at his salary of just over $8,000 since he has the potential to go off with 50+ DraftKings points if he puts together another well-rounded performance on Monday.
Value
After missing 13 games at the start of the regular season, Trendon Watford has been working his way into a larger role for the Nets. If DFS misses a third straight game and Johnson is out as well, Watford could be in for even more work on Monday in a great matchup against the Bulls.
Watford played a season-high 25 minutes on Sunday and totaled 20.25 DraftKings points on 13 points, three rebounds, and an assist. He has produced 0.93 DraftKings points per minute on the year and put up at least 17 DraftKings points in four straight, including three straight games with at least 13 points.
Depending on who the Nets have available, Watford may even be pressed into the starting lineup, but even coming off the bench, he has enough upside to be a strong value play at $4,400. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards in the FantasyLabs projections.
Fast Break
Timberwolves PF Julius Randle faces his former team, the Lakers, on Monday night after posting a low-grade double-double on Friday vs. the Clippers to earn 30 DraftKings points. It was his first double-double in over two weeks, but his scoring was down with just 11 points. He’s averaging 21.2 points per game this year and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, so he should be able to bounce back and post a bigger total, especially if his rebounding numbers remain high.
On the other side of that matchup, LeBron James always brings a high ceiling. He had 27 points and 14 assists on his way to 58.25 DraftKings points on Sunday in Utah. He has posted double-digit assists in three of his last four games and is averaging 1.42 DraftKings points per minute on the season. His multi-category potential always makes him an option, although I do prefer Tatum on this slate unless Anthony Davis is out or something like that.
With Nikola Jovic (ankle) sidelined, Haywood Highsmith has been getting more minutes and turning in solid bargain production. He put up at least 17 DraftKings points in three straight games by turning in good defensive numbers to go with low-grade scoring and rebounding.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Anthony Davis has the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections. He also has the highest salary, but there is enough value, especially with the Nets and Pelicans, to be able to save up for AD.
Davis has averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and has only missed one game due to injury. If the Lakers decide to give LeBron the night off, Davis will be an even better play against the Timberwolves. Davis has posted five straight double-doubles and had 33 points on Sunday to go with 11 boards on his way to 54.75 DraftKings points.
On Monday, Davis will have to contend with Rudy Gobert, but he has historically fared pretty well against The Stifle Tower. If the salary is available and you can pay up at center, Davis is a great, high-ceiling play on Monday night.
Value
Clint Capela has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in both the ShotQuality projections and the FantasyLabs projections. His usage and scoring have fluctuated throughout the season, but he consistently puts together enough rebounds and defensive stats to be a solid value under $6,000.
Capela has averaged 26.8 DraftKings points per game and 1.20 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. He has over 25 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 13 games, with a high point of 42.75 DraftKings points against the Bulls with 21 points and 11 boards.
Even though he has only scored eight and four points in his last two games, he finished with 35.25 and 29.0 DraftKings points. He’s in a great matchup against the short-handed Pelicans on Monday and should be able to return value again.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis has looked good in his three games since returning from injury. On Sunday, he played a season-high 32 minutes and finished with 41.5 DraftKings points. That said, he may sit out the second game of the back-to-back. If he does sit, Tatum would get more work and Neemias Queta would be an excellent value play at just over $4,000.
Rookie Yves Missi has been starting at center for the Pelicans and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games. He has double-digit points in each of his last five games, averaging 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over that stretch. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in the ShotQuality projections.
Jalen Smith hs the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any center under $4,500 and continues to get good playing time as a member of the Bulls’ second unit. He exceeded his modest salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games and had over 25 DraftKings points in two of his last four.
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