NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (November 28) for Dolphins vs. Packers on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving! The three-game Turkey Day slate wraps up with a contest between the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Packers are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47.5 points.

The Dolphins have gone 3-2 since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, but their two losses have come by a combined four points. They’ve won their past two games by at least 15 points, so they’re playing some of their best football of the season.

The Packers have rolled to an 8-3 record this season, but it hasn’t always been pretty. That said, they are coming off a demolition of the 49ers in their last contest. San Francisco was missing some key contributors on both sides of the ball, and Green Bay took full advantage in a 28-point win.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Dolphins-Packers.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This slate is headlined by the two running backs. For the Dolphins, that’s De’Von Achane. When Tagovailoa has been in the lineup this season, Achane has been an absolute monster. He’s played seven games with his starting QB, and he’s finished as a top-seven PPR running back in six of them. That includes four finishes as RB3 or better.

Achane is never going to be a guy who gets a ton of carries. He has just 46% of his team’s rushing attempts for the year, and the Dolphins have two other running backs who factor into the equation. However, his work in the passing game more than makes up for it. Achane has a 16% target share for the year – trailing only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey at running back – and he’s been targeted on 23% of his routes run. He’s had at least four targets in every game with Tagovailoa under center, and he’s had at least seven targets in four of them.

Achane’s utilization was down slightly in Week 12, but he made up for it by scoring two touchdowns. That’s not going to happen every week, but Achane is very live to find the paint in most contests. He had 11 touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie, and he’s scored eight touchdowns so far this season. All of those scores have come in the seven games with Tua under center, so he’s averaging more than a touchdown per game with his starting QB in the lineup.

The only downside with Achane on Thursday is the matchup. The Packers have been solid against the run this season, and they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs. However, they do allow the 11th-most targets to the position, so Achane could make it for it that way.

Ultimately, Achane stands out as a bit overpriced for his most likely outcome, but he’s still a viable target on this slate.

Josh Jacobs is the Packers’ RB, and he operates a bit differently than Achane. He can still catch a few passes – he has a 9% target share for the year – but he does most of his damage on the ground. He’s racked up 61% of the team’s rushing attempts this season, and he’s punched in eight touchdowns.

Jacobs is coming off his best game of the season in his last outing. He absolutely torched the 49ers, finishing with 106 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His 31.6 DraftKings points was his top mark of the season, and he finished as the second-highest scorer at the position. Overall, it was his third finish as a top-five PPR running back in his past four games.

Can the Dolphins slow him down? They’re currently No. 10 in rush defense EPA, and they’re 19th in PPR points per game allowed to opposing running backs. Jacobs owns a -2.3 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the exact same mark as Achane.

However, Jacobs does benefit from being a favorite. Like most running backs, he tends to do better when his team is expected to play with a lead. He’s averaged a +4.41 Plus/Minus as a favorite for his career, and that figure jumps to +7.21 as a member of the Packers (per the Trends tool). That is a bit inflated by his performance last week, but Jacobs has scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in four straight games as a favorite.

Our projections give Jacobs a slight edge over Achane in both median and ceiling projections despite the fact that he’s slightly cheaper. He’s also projected for less ownership, making him the better option of the two.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

While Achane has thrived with Tagovailoa back in the lineup, the same cannot be said for Tyreek Hill. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his past five games, and he’s starting to get a bit frustrated with his involvement. His target share is down to just 22% this season after sitting at 32% last year, while his air yards share has dipped from 42% to 37%.

The other big concern is this game is the weather. It’s not expected to be nearly as bad as last year’s playoff game vs. the Chiefs, but it’s still expected to be below 30 degrees with possible snow. Tagovailoa has a terrible track record in cold-weather games, so Hill is even riskier than usual.

Still, this is Tyreek Hill we’re talking about. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to do damage, and his salary has dipped below $10,000 for just the third time this season. There’s definitely a buy-low case to be made.

Jordan Love is another potential buy-low candidate. He’s down to just $9,600, which is his lowest price tag of the season. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and all three games have been disasters. He’s failed to crack even 15 DraftKings points in each of them, so the price decrease is definitely warranted.

Still, when Love has played well this season, the highs have been relatively high. He has four games with at least 18.8 DraftKings points since returning to the lineup from injury, and he’s had at least 26.62 in two of them.

Love has also historically been at his best at Lambeau Field. He’s averaged 20.7 DraftKings points when playing at home compared to just 17.25 on the road.

Ultimately, Love owns the top median and ceiling projections on the slate, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.

While Love is on the positive side of his splits, Tua is definitely on the negative. He’s averaged a -3.01 Plus/Minus when on the road, and things only get worse as the months get colder. In eight road games at 50 degrees or colder, he has just one performance of more than 20 DraftKings points. He’s been below 15 DraftKings points five times, including two games with less than 10.

That’s obviously a huge concern, but not all cold is created equal. The winds are expected to be pretty reasonable at Lambeau, and wind has historically had more of an impact on passing than snow or cold.

The weather will undoubtedly drive Tagovailoa’s ownership down, making him an interesting option for tournaments. His projections trail only Love’s in our Models, and the gap between the two quarterbacks is pretty slim. He’s also priced at just $9,000 on DraftKings, giving him a slate-best 98% Bargain Rating.

The Packers have one of the deepest groups of receivers in the league, but they’ll be a little shallower than usual on Thanksgiving. Romeo Doubs is out with a concussion, and he’s posted an 86% snap share and 19% target share when active. That’s going to open up some additional opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Jayden Reed is the team’s No. 1 receiver, but he has not lived up to the billing of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past seven outings, and his utilization has plummeted of late. He’s seen just 14% of the team’s targets and air yards since Week 7, and he’s had a route rate below 70% in three of his past four games.

Still, the absence of Doubs should help. Reed had a 90% route participation in his only game without Doubs this season, and he posted a 25% target share and 37% air yards share. If he can get back to those levels, he has a good chance to pay off his $7,800 salary.

Jaylen Waddle has been a non-factor for the Dolphins for most of the year. In his first six games with Tagovailoa this season, he had a target share above 17% only once.

However, he broke out with a monster performance in Week 12. He saw a season-high nine targets, and he responded with eight catches, 144 yards, and a touchdown. It was a good reminder of the type of talent that Waddle is at the position.

It remains to be seen if that was just a one-week outlier or represents a change moving forward. That said, I’m willing to find out at $7,400.

Christian Watson is another Packers receiver who should see a few more opportunities on Thursday. His role with the team has already been on the rise. Over his past four games, he’s racked up a 20% target share and 41% air yards share, making him the team’s clear big-play threat at receiver. He’s a boom-or-bust type of option, but when he booms, he brings tons of upside to the table.

The two tight ends round out this price range, and Jonnu Smith has become a legit threat at the position. He was a bit of an afterthought for most of the year, and tight ends have historically struggled in the Mike McDaniel offense. Mike Gesicki underperformed for years in Miami, while Durham Smythe was basically invisible as the team’s top tight end last season.

That said, Smith has posted an excellent 22% target share since Tua returned to the lineup in Week 7. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six contests, and he’s had at least 22.6 DraftKings points in three of them. That includes each of his past two outings.

His price remains extremely reasonable for this matchup, and the Packers have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. There’s no real reason to shy away from him now.

Tucker Kraft will handle most of the opportunities for the Packers at tight end. He had his best game of the season the last time Doubs was out of the lineup, finishing with five targets, four catches, 88 yards, and two touchdowns vs. the Rams. That said, Watson also missed that contest, so the team was down two of their top pass-catchers. This week will be slightly different.

Overall, Kraft has a very strong 88% route participation for the year, but he’s been targeted on just 13% of his routes run. He has the potential to pay off his current price tag, but he doesn’t have the same ceiling as some of the other options in this price range.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The defenses stand out as better values in our projections, and the kickers could definitely be impacted by the cold weather.
• Raheem Mostert ($4,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Mostert has seemingly been getting phased out of the lineup. He’s had 12% of the team’s carries or fewer in three straight games, so he’s overpriced across the industry.
• Dontayvion Wicks ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Wicks should be a popular value option on this slate, and he’s historically fared well when given extra snaps. He’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run this season, so an uptick in routes could lead to a big performance.
• Emanuel Wilson ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Wilson has seen a handful of opportunities most weeks, and he did score a touchdown three games ago. That said, he’s not very appealing at $3,400.
• Jaylen Wright ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – I’d much rather go with Wright if using a back in this price range. He’s seen more carries than Mostert in three straight games, and he has home-run-hitting speed out of the backfield. 
• Chris Brooks ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Brooks also worked into the Packers’ backfield last week, but that’s not surprising in a blowout. He had zero carries the week prior.
• Odell Beckham ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Beckham’s snaps have been capped this season, but he’s been targeted on 18% of his routes run.
• Malik Washington ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Washington has seem similar utilization to Beckham in the past few weeks, though most of his opportunities come on gadget plays. He’s had negative air yards in back-to-back games.
• Julian Hill ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – The No. 2 TE for the Dolphins. He’s seen a roughly 25% route participation for the year, though that number has been slightly higher in some contests.
• Bo Melton ($1,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Melton is very affordable on DraftKings, and like Wicks, he should see a few extra opportunities in this contest.