The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Damian Lillard at Miami Heat – $8,900 DraftKings
Priced just below $9,000, Damian Lillard has the highest projected ceiling at the point guard position. With Khris Middleton still out due to injury, the Bucks have been a two-headed monster with Lillard and Giannis. Lillard is averaging 25.2 points and a team-high 7.4 assists per game this season. He has recorded a points and assists double-double in three of his last four games, which has boosted his projected ceiling.
The Heat continue to be a difficult matchup for opposing teams due to their slow pace and stout defense. The Bucks have won four straight games but are 2.5-point road underdogs, with this game total being one of the lowest on the slate at 222.5 points. Despite the tough spot, the point guard position is lacking star power. Lillard has displayed a potential ceiling worth getting exposure to at his lower ownership.
Top Value: Tyus Jones vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,700 DraftKings
Jordan Poole and Mike Conley lead the guard position in projected Plus/Minus, but both are questionable for tonight’s action after missing their previous games. Next in line is Suns’ starting point guard Tyus Jones, who has averaged 15.3 points, 9.7 assists, and 39.2 DraftKings points per game in his last three games. Even with Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant projected back, this is a great spot for the veteran guard.
The Suns are three-point home favorites, implied for 119.5 points against the Lakers who have lost back-to-back games. Even though the Lakers have a 10-6 record, they rank 27th in defensive rating this season. Opponents are shooting 48.5% from the field and averaging 28.8 assists per game against the Lakers, which is the third-highest total for both statistics. Jones could flirt with another double-double tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Houston Rockets – $9,500 DraftKings
Projected for less than 5% ownership, Anthony Edwards is the top contrarian option for this five-game slate. A big reason for that is the Rockets currently rank second in the league in defensive rating. Also, at a $9,500 salary, that is not surprising, but we have all seen the upside that Edwards can provide. He leads a weak shooting guard position in projected ceiling and is averaging a career-high 27.9 points per game.
Edwards continues to lead the league with 4.9 3-pointers made per game while connecting on 43.8% of his perimeter shooting attempts. He has made at least five 3-pointers in three of his last four games. Edwards has also scored at least 21 points in every game this season, proving to be a consistent fantasy producer. His salary may be limiting, but Edwards is an easy way to differentiate lineups for this slate.
Top Value: Stephon Castle at Utah Jazz – $5,200 DraftKings
Rookie Stephon Castle is starting to come into his own recently. Over his last nine games, Castle is averaging 15.3 points, 5.0 assists, and 28.5 DraftKings points per game. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in all but one of those games. The Spurs are still without Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, which will provide a significant boost to Castle’s playing time and production. He is a strong value option.
The Spurs are 2.5-point road favorites against the Jazz, who continue to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. The Jazz rank 28th in defensive rating while allowing 118.5 points per game. Projected to start and play around 32 minutes tonight, Castle will be a fantastic play in all formats. His usage rate will be around 22%, and he will have more than enough opportunity to pay off his price tag.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at Washington Wizards – $7,800 DraftKings
By far the best game environment to target on this five-game slate is the matchup between the Bulls and Wizards. This game has a 245-point total, with the Bulls implied to score a slate-high 125 points. Zach LaVine has both the highest projected Plus/Minus and highest projected ceiling at the small forward position and is an affordable $7,800. He is also projected to be the second-most popular option tonight.
Both the Wizards and Bulls have an awful defensive rating while playing at the fastest pace in the league. There will be a flurry of points scored in this matchup, which is what LaVine does best. He is a bucket-getter. LaVine is averaging a team-high 22.7 points per game while shooting 52.1% from the field and 44% from behind the arc. Do not expect many peripherals, but LaVine can fill it up in this spot tonight.
Top Value: Bilal Coulibaly vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,700 DraftKings
With Jordan Poole questionable and in danger of missing his second consecutive game, Bilal Coulibaly jumps to one of the best values on the slate. In his last game without Poole, Coulibaly stuffed the stat sheet with 17 points, six rebounds, four assists, two blocks, and one steal for 37 DraftKings points. Even if Poole were to play, Coulibaly is still projected to be the second-highest-owned small forward on the slate.
The Wizards are a league-worst 2-13 this year and have lost 11 games in a row. Playing at home against the Bulls would be a great time to get back on track. In their down season, Coulibaly has been given the starting small forward job and delivered with a career-high 14.3 points per game while shooting 52.5% from the field. He is projected to play 35 minutes against one of the league’s worst defense tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Miami Heat – $12,000 DraftKings
Leading this five-game slate in projected ceiling is Bucks’ superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is leading the league in scoring with a career-high 32.4 points per game while shooting an impressive 60.1% from the field. Giannis is also averaging over 11 rebounds per game for the seventh-straight season. He has had a lingering knee issue, but that has not slowed Giannis down. It is impossible to ignore his ceiling.
The Bucks got off to an incredibly slow start this season but have won six of their last seven games. During that seven-game stretch, Giannis has dominated, averaging 33.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 64.6 DraftKings points per game. Despite the difficult matchup, Giannis has averaged 30.4 points, 12 rebounds, and 59.9 DraftKings points per game against the Heat in their last five regular season games.
Top Value: Alex Sarr vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,000 DraftKings
Currently second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus is Wizards’ big man Alex Sarr. The rookie has started all 15 games and has been active on the court, averaging 10 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. The 7-footer has power forward and center eligibility making him easy to fit into all lineup builds. Sarr is projected for 30% ownership and is a staple in cash games and great value in tournaments.
The Bulls have been a profitable matchup for opposing big men. They are allowing a league-high 59.6 points per game in the paint and rank 24th in rebounding percentage. Sarr put up a massive performance last game with 17 points and 14 rebounds against the Pacers and has a great opportunity to put up similar numbers in this elite matchup. At $5,000, he is arguably the best value play on this five-game slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama at Utah Jazz – $10,800 DraftKings
There are four players who are priced at $10,000 or higher on DraftKings tonight. The argument to play Victor Wembanyama above the rest is simple. The Spurs get a superb matchup against the Jazz, and Wembanyama has averaged 32.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, and 63.7 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. He leads the league in blocks for the second straight year and has huge upside.
Wembanyama is second only to Giannis in projected ceiling for tonight’s slate but has the much better matchup against the Jazz frontcourt. The Spurs have already played the Jazz twice this season, and Wembanyama has dominated both matchups. In those two games, he is averaging 24.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, 6.0 blocks, and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 45.5% from distance. Play Wembanyama.
Top Value: Walker Kessler vs. San Antonio Spurs – $5,800 DraftKings
Opposite of Wembanyama is Jazz center Walker Kessler. After a six-game absence, Kessler returned last game and picked up right where he left off. He had an 11-point, 10-rebound double-double with three blocks. Kessler played 35 minutes and finished with 37 DraftKings points. With his backup center Kyle Filipowski out for the second-straight game, Kessler is projected to play around 32 minutes in this spot.
The only downside to playing Kessler is the difficult matchup against Wembanyama and the Spurs. They are elite defending the paint and rebounding the ball. Kessler’s two meetings with the Spurs, he is only averaging 6.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. However, in both games, Kessler was only playing 23 minutes per game. Expect those averages to rise playing more minutes in tonight’s action.
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