NFL Week 12 wraps up with an outstanding Monday Night Football contest. The Ravens will travel to California to take on the Chargers, and they’re currently listed as 2.5-point road favorites. The total on this game sits at 50.5 points, so there’s expected to be plenty of scoring.
The Ravens have been the best offensive team in football this season. They’re first in the league in EPA per play, and they’re first in yards and second in points per game. Their backfield is one of the best in football, and they have more capable pass-catchers than in years past.
The Chargers have breezed through an easy schedule up to this point. However, they certainly pass the eye test. They combine an elite defense with a good enough offense, while Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in football. They’ve won seven of their first 10 games, including an upset win over the Bengals last week.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
As usual, any discussion of the Ravens has to start with Lamar Jackson. His MVP stock has taken a bit of a hit recently, but he’s undoubtedly been the best quarterback in fantasy. He’s No. 1 at the position in points per game, and the gap between him and the rest of the field is pretty wide.
Jackson is having arguably the best season of his career as a passer. He’s averaging an absurd 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt, and he’s racked up 25 touchdown passes combined with just three interceptions. He’s also doing plenty of damage with his legs, averaging 53.1 rushing yards per game. Jackson has only added two scores on the ground – well behind some of the other top rushing threats at the position – but it’s tough to beat the combination that he brings to the table.
Still, there are a few things working against Jackson on this slate. For starters, he’ll be playing outside of Baltimore. Jackson has historically averaged 2.5 fewer fantasy points per game when playing on the road (per the Trends tool). He’s still averaging a very respectable 22.86 DraftKings points as a visitor, but he hasn’t been quite as good as usual.
Additionally, he’s going to have to navigate one of the toughest matchups in fantasy. The Chargers are No. 3 in dropback EPA defensively, and they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
While that’s a concern, the Chargers aren’t invincible. We just saw Joe Burrow rack up more than 350 passing yards and three touchdowns against them last week, and Jackson is capable of doing the same.
He leads the slate in both median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Derrick Henry is the other big piece of the Ravens’ offense. After struggling in his past few seasons with the Titans, he looks completely revitalized playing alongside Jackson. He’s averaged 6.0 yards per attempt and 107.7 rushing yards per game, and he’s scored in all 11 of the team’s contests. His 15 touchdowns overall is the best mark in the league.
That said, Henry’s volume has left a little to be desired of late. He’s had 16 carries or fewer in three of the team’s past four games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each. He’s still getting the lion’s share of the RB carries in the Ravens’ backfield, but the team has been unable to blow out their opponents in those contests.
When the games stay competitive, Henry simply doesn’t get the number of touches you’d expect for a high-priced running back. The fact that he doesn’t play on passing downs also hurts his cause.
With the Ravens expected to play in another close game on Monday, Henry has plenty of risk at his current salary. He needs 100+ yards and a touchdown to potentially return value, and the Chargers have allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs. He’s the weakest option in the stud tier.
Justin Herbert remains one of the most talented QBs in football, and he’s having one of the most efficient seasons of his career. Specifically, he’s averaging 9.51 adjusted yards per attempt with zero interceptions since the team’s Week 5 bye.
The Chargers started the year as one of the most run-heavy offenses in football, but they’ve shifted their philosophy a bit in recent weeks. They’ve had a positive Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) in four of their past five games, and their +8% mark last week was tied for the highest of the year.
The increased aggressive has been outstanding for Herbert’s fantasy prospects. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, including a season-high 25.38 DraftKings points last week vs. the Bengals. He was just three yards shy of the 300-yard bonus, too, so it could’ve been an even bigger performance.
While the matchup is dreadful for the Ravens’ studs, it couldn’t be any better for Herbert. The Ravens have struggled against the pass all season, ranking 29th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the most passing yards per game. When combined with their elite offense, opposing QBs have no choice but to attack this pass defense relentlessly for four full quarters.
As a result, Herbert leads all players with a +6.1 Opponent Plus/Minus. His price tag is up to $10,400, but he has significant upside in this matchup.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
J.K. Dobbins is technically priced in the stud tier at $10,000 on DraftKings, but including him in the same section as Jackson, Henry, and Herbert felt wrong. He simply doesn’t belong in that tier, making his current price tag a bit egregious. That’s reflected in our NFL Models, which give Dobbins the worst projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Dobbins provided some value early in the season, but with the offense shifting more toward the pass and their backfield getting healthier, those days feel in the past. He managed to salvage his fantasy stock with two rushing touchdowns last week, but he had just 11 carries vs. the Bengals. Since Gus Edwards returned to the lineup, Dobbins has managed just a 50% carry share.
Dobbins doesn’t bring much to the table as a pass-catcher, so he needs to dominate on the ground to justify this price tag. With his workload decreasing, he’s tough to justify against a Ravens squad that is significantly tougher against the run than the pass.
Zay Flowers is another player whose stock has come down in recent weeks. Through his first nine games, Flowers was the clear leader among the team’s pass-catchers. He had a 27% target share, and he finished as a top-16 PPR receiver five separate times. Since then, Flowers’ target share has dipped to just 20%, and he’s failed to crack the top 30 at the position.
Which version of Flowers will show up on Monday? That remains to be seen, but our projections see him as overpriced at $9,600. He’s had six targets in three straight games, and barring a huge uptick vs. the Chargers, it’s tough to trust a receiver at that figure.
It’s much easier to get excited about Ladd McConkey. McConkey is officially questionable, but it’s tough to imagine he’s not in the lineup vs. the Ravens. He was limited at practice all week, but he was able to return to the game after sustaining his shoulder injury last week vs. the Bengals. He hauled in two passes on the game-winning drive, so there’s no reason to expect him to sit.
As long as he’s active, McConkey has plenty of upside in this matchup. He’s been the clear top receiver in the Chargers’ passing attack this season, racking up a 24% target share. He was at 30% last week vs. the Bengals, and he responded with the second 100-yard game of his career.
The Chargers have now had two games with a DBOE of +8%, and McConkey has had at least 100 yards in both. In a game where they likely have to throw the ball more than usual, he has the chance to do it again. His price tag has come up, but he’s still a solid investment and logical stacking partner with Herbert. Those two players have a correlation of +0.55 on DraftKings.
Quentin Johnston is the Chargers’ other top receiver, and he benefits from the same scenario as McConkey. While McConkey is more of the “move the chains” guy, Johnston is their big play threat. He leads the team with six receiving touchdowns, and he has 31% of their air yards for the year. In last week’s contest, Johnston had a very healthy 27% target share and 39% air yards share.
His floor might not be quite as high as McConkey’s, but his ceiling is pretty comparable. Add in the difference in salary, and he’s arguably the better play.
Will Dissly has been an afterthought for most of the year, but he’s emerged as the team’s clear No. 3 in their passing attack. He has quietly been targeted on 26% of his routes run this season, which is an elite figure for a tight end. His snaps have also increased in recent weeks: he has a 66% route participation since the team’s bye.
Dissly found the endzone for the first time last week, and his price has increased to $6,400 on DraftKings. That’s a reasonable number, and it makes his $7,000 salary on FanDuel an absolute joke. It results in a 90% Bargain Rating, which is the top mark on the slate.
Rashod Bateman has operated as the Ravens’ No. 2 receiver this season, and he’s been a pretty consistent producer. He has at least four targets in all but one game, and he has five games with double-digit DraftKings points.
There was some concern about what his role would look like following the trade for Diontae Johnson, but he has basically maintained all of his utilization. His route participation has been at 84% over the past three weeks, which is down only slightly from his 87% mark for the year. He’s another very reasonable option in this price range, and he’s currently projected for less than 16% ownership on DraftKings.
Josh Palmer rounds out this price range, and he’s been the Chargers’ clear No. 4 pass-catcher of late. That would seemingly make him overpriced at $5,200, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all but two games.
Still, the matchup vs. the Ravens is so good that basically anyone expected to get snaps at receiver is in play. He had an 81% route participation last week vs. the Bengals, and while he finished with just a 10% target share, that gives him plenty of potential.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The kickers stand out as the better targets from a projection standpoint, and they’re also showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs.
- Mark Andrews ($4,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Andrews was expected to be one of the top tight ends in fantasy this season, but that simply hasn’t happened. He did have a mini breakout in the middle of the season, but he’s posted target shares of 15%, 11%, and 11% in three of his past four games. The one outlier game in that stretch was a game where Isaiah Likely was inactive, so it’s easy to write that performance off.
- Isaiah Likely ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Likely returned to the lineup last week, and he had a 53% route participation and 19% target share. He’s a far superior option to Andrews on FanDuel, where he’s -$2,000 cheaper.
- Justice Hill ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Hill has popped for a few big games this season, and his role as the team’s pass-catching RB keeps him relevant on a weekly basis.
- Diontae Johnson ($3,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) – The Ravens’ decision to trade for Johnson and then barely use him is a real head-scratcher. He’s posted a route participation of 27% or fewer in three straight games, and he has just a 6% target share over that stretch.
- Gus Edwards ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Edwards has had 30% of the team’s rushing attempts in back-to-back weeks. He’s always a threat to punch in a short touchdown, making him the best value among the Ravens’ RBs.
- Nelson Agholor ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Like Bateman, Agholor has basically maintained his utilization despite the team trading for Johnson. He has a 44% route rate for the year, and he’s been targeted on 15% of his routes run.
- Jalen Raegor ($800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Raegor has a 32% route participation over the past four games, giving him a puncher’s chance at a big play in this matchup.
