We’ve been waiting a long time for this, but it’s finally here. It’s Harbaugh Bowl season! John Harbaugh leads his Baltimore Ravens into SoFi Stadium for an important AFC clash against Jim’s Los Angeles Chargers. Following the Pittsburgh Steelers’ loss to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football, the door has been left open for the Ravens in the AFC North. Having already suffered a defeat at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers don’t have a conceivable path to division glory in the AFC West. Still, they control their own destiny in the AFC wild card race and could still potentially catch the Chiefs with a little help. That starts with a pivotal win against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Ravens vs. Chargers
Justin Herbert More 21.5 Completions
Credit to Jim Harbaugh for getting the Chargers back to their winning ways. While he’s made the team better in virtually every aspect of the game, Justin Herbert’s transformation stands out. The former Offensive Rookie of the Year has been more responsible with the football this year, setting him up for success against a porous Ravens secondary.
Interceptions were an inhibiting factor in Herbert’s early seasons. The Oregon Ducks product had hit double-digit interceptions in three of his first four seasons, totaling 42 across the four-year span. However, those issues appear to be a thing of the past, with Herbert throwing just one interception through his first 10 games of the season. The other notable accomplishment is Herbert’s improved efficiency. He’s averaging a career-best 7.9 yards per pass attempt, up over a full point from his two-year running average of 6.8.
This improved efficiency has netted Herbert more responsibility in the Chargers offense. After averaging just 22.3 pass attempts through his team’s first four games, Herbert is up to 31.0 over his last six. Across the more recent stretch, he’s completed at least 20 passes on three occasions with a 62.9% completion rating.
Coming off his worst outing of the season, Herbert is a natural progression candidate to get back into his usual rhythm. The Chargers’ signal-caller completed just 47.2% of his passes last time out against the Cincinnati Bengals, representing his worst completion percentage of the season by over 12.0%. The Ravens operate the worst pass defense in the NFL, giving up an average of 25.8 completions and 284.5 passing yards per game. That should allow Herbert to get back on track and surpass his 21.5 completions total in Week 12.
Ladd McConkey More 5.5 Receptions
An injury designation ahead of Week 12’s showdown against the Ravens has dampened Ladd McConkey’s outlook. Nevertheless, he is trending toward playing on Monday night and should have his usual workload to look forward to.
The rookie wideout has cemented his position as Herbert’s top target. McConkey leads the team with a 22.6% target share and has accumulated 15 more targets than the next closest pass-catcher. More importantly, his rapid ascent up the depth chart is validated by some pretty impressive metrics.
So far this season, McConkey has posted a 68.3% catch rate while averaging 14.3 yards per reception. Moreover, he’s become more reliable as the season progresses. He’s coming off a career-best six-reception performance in which he totaled 123 yards. Pointing the lens further back, McConkey has at least five receptions in four of his last five games, with an even more impressive 77.4% catch rate.
Assuredly, McConkey will maintain that form in Monday’s intra-conference showdown. He’s become Herbert’s safety blanket and the top priority in the Chargers passing game. With Herbert expected to excel against the Ravens, so is McConkey. Our projections and analysis support that he’s poised to eclipse 5.5 receptions on Monday night.
Rashod Bateman Less 37.5 Receiving Yards and 3.5 Receptions
Inarguably, the Chargers’ most impressive transformation this season has come on the defensive side of the ball. After languishing as one of the worst units in the league last year, Los Angeles has climbed the defensive mountain, ranking as a top 10 scoring and total defense. Their passing coverage has been sublime, hampering the Ravens’ ceiling on Monday Night Football. Consequently, we’re expecting Rashod Bateman to come up short of his receiving yards and receptions totals.
Bateman plays a secondary role in the Ravens passing attack. He plays behind Zay Flowers in the receivers corps but is also overshadowed by the tight end tandem of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Further, Bateman’s limited ceiling has become increasingly evident as the season progresses.
The former first-round pick has been targeted 22 times over the past four games. Over that stretch, he’s recorded more than three receptions only once, while falling below 30 receiving yards in three of the four outings. Those concerns become more prevalent when we look at his underlying metrics and anticipated usage moving forward. Specifically, Bateman has an underwhelming 54.5% catch rate across the four-game sample, forcing Lamar Jackson to look elsewhere in his progressions.
All of those issues are amplified against a stout Chargers pass defense. Los Angeles ranks eighth in opponent completion percentage, holding opponents to a 62.9% completion rate and 206.6 yards per game. More concerningly, their last three opponents have completed just 60.4% of their throws.
It’s tough to envision a scenario where Bateman thrives on Monday night. Diminishing workload and efficiency ratings against the Chargers defense support that he’ll come up short of 3.5 receptions and 37.5 receiving yards.
Justin Tucker Less 7.5 Kicking Points
While he may eventually be enshrined in Canton’s hallowed grounds, Justin Tucker is in the autumn of his career. The Ravens kicker has been remarkably unreliable this season, and he won’t have the opportunity to redeem himself on Monday Night Football.
Tucker is having a career-worst year. So much so that he’s fallen from his perch as the NFL’s all-time most accurate kicker. Through the first 11 games of the season, Tucker has made just 16 of his 22 field goal attempts for a lackluster 72.7% field goal percentage. While he had earned a reputation for being one of the most accurate kickers from distance, Tucker has made only three kicks from beyond 50 yards. Combined with last year’s deteriorating efforts, he’s 4-for-12 from outside 50 yards over the past couple of seasons.
Limited effectiveness has forced the Ravens to become more aggressive in plus-territory this season. On a few occasions, John Harbaugh has elected to go for it, rather than trotting Tucker out to attempt a field goal. Baltimore has attempted just five field goals over their previous three contests, with Tucker missing two of those. Moreover, the nine-time Pro Bowl kicker also missed an extra-point attempt against the Bengals, signaling his undeniable decline.
Teams don’t have a proven track record of putting up points against the Chargers. They have the top-ranked scoring defense in the league while also holding opponents to the fewest red zone scoring opportunities per game. Given his recent struggles, don’t expect Tucker to be given many opportunities to make long-distance kicks. As a result, we’re betting he falls short of 7.5 kicking points against the Chargers’ formidable defense.
