Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Courtland Sutton ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
There were major question marks about what the Broncos passing attack would look like this season. They were starting a rookie quarterback, and after trading away Jerry Jeudy this offseason, they had some question marks at receiver. Sutton was expected to be the top guy, but it was unclear just how much value that role would provide.
Turns out, the answer is plenty. Sutton started the year slowly, but he has picked up significant steam in recent weeks. Since Week 6, he’s finished as a top-23 scorer at the position in five of six contests. That includes three finishes as a top-11 receiver.
Over that time frame, Sutton has posted elite utilization. He’s racked up a 24% target share and 36% air yards share despite failing to earn a single target in Week 7. His numbers have improved to 30% and 46%, respectively, over the past four weeks, so he’s operated as a legit WR1 for fantasy purposes.
That alone is enough to make him a value at $5,800, but Sutton also benefits from a phenomenal matchup in Week 12. He’s taking on the Raiders, who have been a subpar pass defense all season. They’re also expected to be pretty thin at cornerback, with two players already ruled out and a third listed as questionable.
With Bo Nix continuing to improve on a weekly basis, Sutton has become a rock-solid option at receiver. There’s no reason to shy away from him in this matchup.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Has Smith-Njigba taken over as the Seahawks’ top receiver? It’s possible. He has the pedigree to do so after being selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and while DK Metcalf remains an imposing presence, JSN is arguably the more complete player.
He’s put together back-to-back massive performances. He erupted for seven catches, 180 yards, and two touchdowns two weeks ago, resulting in 40.0 DraftKings points. He finished as the highest-scoring receiver in fantasy that week, taking full advantage of Metcalf being out with an injury.
Metcalf returned to the lineup in Week 11, but he had zero impact on JSN’s production. He posted a target share of at least 35% for the second straight game, and he finished with 11 targets, 10 catches, and 110 yards.
Smith-Njigba is in another fantastic spot this week vs. the Cardinals. They’re merely 23rd in pass defense EPA, and this game has the second-highest total of the week at 47.5 points. Until JSN’s price tag catches up to his production, he’s a clear buy for fantasy purposes.
D.J. Moore ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Most of the top receivers this week stand out as better values on DraftKings than FanDuel, but Moore is a clear exception. He owns a 93% Bargain Rating, which is the third-highest mark at the position.
It makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate. Moore has had a comparable salary in 20 previous games as a member of the Bears, and he’s averaged a +1.59 Plus/Minus in those contests (per the Trends tool).
The Bears offense also showed some signs of life last week after overhauling their coaching staff. They racked up 391 yards of total offense vs. the Packers, which was their top mark since facing the Panthers back in Week 5.
If the offense can continue that production moving forward, there should be better games in Moore’s future. He’s been the team’s top receiver all season, and his seven targets last week was a step in the right direction.
Jakobi Meyers ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Meyers has been a staple of this column ever since Davante Adams stepped away from the Raiders. In four games from Weeks 4 through 9, Meyers posted an elite 32% target share as the team’s No. 1 receiver. He also had a 39% air yards share, and he racked up at least 17.3 DraftKings points in two of those outings.
Unfortunately, Meyers took a step backward in Week 11. His target share dipped to just 14%, and he managed just four catches for 28 yards vs. the Dolphins.
That’s a concern, and it’s possible that the Raiders will look to shift some of his snaps to younger players moving forward. However, that didn’t happen in Week 11. He was still on the field for 90% of the team’s passing plays; he just didn’t get the ball as often as he had previously.
I’m willing to give Meyers a mulligan. He’ll have his work cut out for him this week vs. the Broncos, but expect significantly more targets in this matchup. He had nine targets, six catches, and 72 yards in his first matchup vs. the Raiders this season, so he can find some success in this spot.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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DK Metcalf ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Despite giving JSN his flowers in the section above, Metcalf stands out as an elite target in his own right. He didn’t see quite as many targets as Smith-Njigba last week, but his 29% target share and 42% air yards share are still outstanding marks. His 24% target share for the year is also tied with JSN for the year, so this could be more of a 1A/1B type of situation moving forward.
Smith-Njigba ultimately grades out as the slightly better option using Sim Labs, showing up in the optimal lineup at the second-highest rate at the position on DraftKings. However, Metcalf isn’t far behind: his 14.97% optimal lineup rate is the fourth-highest mark among receivers.
Pairing Metcalf and Smith-Njigba with Geno Smith in tournaments is certainly possible; both receivers have a correlation of +0.43 on DraftKings.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
The Lions have absolutely rolled this season. There haven’t been many teams that have been able to stand up to them, which has left them without a huge need to throw. The Lions are averaging just 28.2 pass attempts per game, which is the fourth-lowest mark in football.
The reduced volume has had an impact on St. Brown, who is averaging roughly one fewer reception and 25 fewer yards per game than he did last year. However, he’s made up for it by scoring more touchdowns; his nine TDs through 10 weeks is just one less than he had in 16 games last year.
St. Brown is also still capable of popping off for a ceiling game from time to time. He reminded everyone of that fact last week, dropping 41.7 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars.
The Lions have the highest implied team total of the week at 29.25 points, so they’re expected to put plenty of points on the scoreboard once again. St. Brown has the third-highest optimal lineup rate on DraftKings at 16.29%, but he’s currently projected for just 12.4% ownership.
Michael Pittman ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
Like Moore, Pittman is another FanDuel special. His 95% Bargain Rating is the second-best at the position, and he should benefit from Anthony Richardson’s return at quarterback. While Josh Downs has been Joe Flacco’s guy for most of the year, Pittman has worked better with Richardson. He posted a 30% target share over his first four games of the season, and he had a 27% target share with Richardson back in the lineup last week.
Unfortunately, those targets haven’t led to a ton of production. His best weekly finish is WR20, and he has just one 100-yard game and two touchdowns for the year. If you’re not doing either of those, it’s tough to make a difference for DFS purposes.
Still, it’s hard to ignore all those targets at just $5,700, especially in a game where the Colts will likely have to air it out. They’re 7.5-point underdogs vs. the Lions, so Pittman could approach double-digit targets in this game. Ultimately, no receiver is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher rate on FanDuel.
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Terry McLaurin ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
There’s a good chance that the Commanders simply dominate the Cowboys with their rushing attack this week. The Cowboys have been the worst team in the league at defending the run, while the Commanders are one of the best rushing teams in football. Ultimately, the Commanders might not need to throw it more than 20 times or so.
However, there’s also a chance that this game is closer than expected for one reason or another. If that happens, McLaurin is likely being overlooked. No receiver has a bigger discrepancy between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership on DraftKings, so he’s an intriguing flyer for tournaments.
Deebo Samuel ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
With Brandon Allen making his first start at quarterback, people aren’t going to be rushing to jam 49ers’ pass-catchers into their lineups. Allen has struggled as a starter throughout his career, so he’s a significant downgrade from Brock Purdy.
That said, Samuel might actually benefit from a QB change. He does a lot of his damage on things like handoffs and screens, and the team could lean on those a bit more with Purdy out of the lineup. He had fallen behind Jauan Jennings in the pecking order in recent weeks, so this could be what breaks him out of his slumber.
DeMario Douglas ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
The Patriots haven’t been an aerial juggernaut this season, but they’ve shown improvement since switching to Drake Maye at quarterback. Douglas has had at least 9.0 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he’s operated as one of the team’s top pass-catchers all season. He’s not an every-down player, but he’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run. Since Maye took over in Week 6, that figure is up to 24%.
Douglas admittedly doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he doesn’t need it at $4,500. He already has one performance with 21.2 DraftKings points this season, earning him a WR8 finish for the week. That would be more than good enough at his current price tag.
A.J. Brown ($8,500 FanDuel)
Brown is only available on FanDuel this week, which includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Eagles and Rams. He’s not expected to be particularly contrarian on that slate, but he’s projected for less ownership than his optimal lineup rate.
Like the Lions, the Eagles haven’t really had to throw the ball that often of late. However, Brown has been a true alpha when the team has taken to the air. He owns a 32% target share and 49% air yards share for the year, both of which are among the best marks in the league.
The Rams’ defense has shown signs of improvement of late, but they’re still just 22nd in pass defense EPA for the year. Brown is also as matchup-proof as it gets, capable of turning any target into a long touchdown. He has a higher ceiling projection than every receiver not named Justin Jefferson, despite checking in with just the sixth-highest price tag.
