Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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De’Von Achane ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
Achane remains priced at a massive discount at just $7,500 on DraftKings. It results in a 97% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Achane has done nothing but dominate in games with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup. He’s now played six games with the team’s starting QB active, and he’s had at least 20.5 DraftKings points in five of them.
The Dolphins’ backfield is a bit in flux at the moment. Achane started the year by splitting carries with Raheem Mostert, but Mostert has fallen out of favor recently. He had zero carries two weeks ago, and he had just 12% of the carries last week. Jaylen Wright has worked his way into the rotation, but it’s still been a win for Achane overall. He had a 65% carry share in Week 11, which was his top mark since Week 3.
Of course, Achane makes most of his money as a pass-catcher. He’s been one of the top receiving threats in football out of the Dolphins’ backfield, and he’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run for the year. He’s had at least four targets in every game with Tagovailoa, and he’s had at least seven in four of them.
Achane has immense upside this week vs. the Patriots. New England is 23rd in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most PPR points per game to the position.
The Dolphins are also favored by more than a touchdown, which tends to bode well for running backs. Achane has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69 as a favorite (per the Trends tool), and he has a chance at posting his first 100-yard game as a runner this year.
Whether he gets it done on the ground, through the air, or a combination of both, expect him to carve up the Patriots.
Kareem Hunt ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Hunt’s days as the Chiefs’ starting running back are limited. Isiah Pacheco has returned to practice, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s activated off the IR. Once that happens, he should resume his role as the Chiefs’ top runner.
That said, it’s not going to happen this week. Pacheco has already been ruled out vs. the Panthers, and that seems like a wise decision. The Chiefs could probably beat the Panthers with me in the backfield, so there’s no real reason to rush Pacheco back.
If this is Hunt’s final game as a starter, he’s poised to go out with a bang. The Panthers have been gouged on the ground all season, and no team has allowed more PPR points per game to opposing running backs.
Hunt has commanded an outstanding workload since taking over for Pacheco. He’s had at least 22 opportunities (carries + targets) in all but one game as a starter. That was last week vs. the Bills in a contest where the Chiefs trailed throughout.
The game script should be completely different vs. Carolina. The Chiefs are listed as 10.5-point road favorites, so expect Hunt to get all the touches he can handle. He’s simply too cheap across the industry.
Brian Robinson ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Robinson is another strong value option in Week 12. He’s significantly cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel, likely due to his lack of production as a pass-catcher. It’s the biggest red flag in his profile, with Robinson garnering just a 5% target share for the year.
That said, he shouldn’t need to catch any passes to return value this week vs. the Cowboys. They’ve been the worst run defense in football this season, ranking dead last in rush defense EPA. They’ve surrendered at least 100 rushing yards in five straight games, and four of those opponents have had at least 141.
Robinson has been the Commanders’ preferred between-the-tackles grinder all year. He handled 67% of the team’s rushing attempts in his return to the lineup last week, including all of the touches from inside the five-yard line.
The Commanders’ offense has regressed a bit recently, but this is the perfect opportunity for them to get back to their roots. They should be able to pound the Cowboys into oblivion, giving Robinson the potential for 100+ yards and a score or two.
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Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
The 49ers’ offense is going to be a major wild card this week. Brock Purdy has been officially ruled out, meaning Brandon Allen will start at QB vs. the Packers. Allen has made nine starts in his NFL career, and he’s averaged just 5.83 adjusted yards per attempt in those outings.
With that in mind, expect Allen to give the ball to McCaffrey as often as possible. That will be both on the ground and through the air. McCaffrey has been a workhorse since returning to the 49ers’ lineup, playing on 91% of their offensive snaps and handling 79% of the rushing attempts. He also has a 20% target share in those contests, so his utilization is as strong as anyone in football.
McCaffrey has yet to post a big performance, but that’s mainly due to his zero touchdowns. If he can find the paint, he should be able to get comfortably back into the 20 PPR points per game threshold.
McCaffrey also remains priced at a discount at $8,500 on DraftKings. He’s had a comparable price tag in 24 previous games with the 49ers, and he’s averaged a +4.97 Plus/Minus in those outings. Even without Purdy, he’s tough to avoid at that number.
James Conner ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The Cardinals are coming off a bye in Week 11, and it will be interesting to see what Conner’s role looks like. He saw a significant reduction in opportunities in Week 10, playing on just 56% of the snaps and handling just 38% of the carries. Trey Benson has eaten into his workload, and the talented rookie could continue to do so after the bye.
That said, it’s important to note that the Cardinals have played in back-to-back blowouts. They beat the Bears by 20 points and the Jets by 25, so they simply haven’t needed to lean on Conner as heavily as usual. While Benson has impressed in limited duty, the most likely scenario is that Conner is still the team’s unquestioned top back.
If this week’s game is more competitive, Conner’s workload should look a lot closer to what it was in Weeks 7 and 8. He handled 83% of the snaps and 76% of the carries in those contests, and he was targeted on 15% of his routes run. Those are bell-cow numbers.
Ultimately, Conner has the third-highest optimal rate at the position on DraftKings, and he’s No. 4 on FanDuel. He’s an elite bounce-back target in the game with the second-highest total on the main slate.
Joe Mixon ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
I’m not sure any running back has been a bigger surprise than Mixon this season. He looked done in his final year with the Bengals, but he’s bounced back with a monster year in Houston. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per attempt – the second-best mark of his entire career – and he’s scored 11 touchdowns in just eight games.
Mixon is getting as many carries as any back in the league at the moment. He’s handled at least 83% of the team’s rushing attempts in five straight games, and he’s had at least 20 carries in each. He’s responded with at least 100 rushing yards in four of those contests, and he’s added at least one touchdown in all of them.
It’s hard not to go right back to the well with Mixon this week. He should be locked into another sizable workload as a 7.5-point home favorite vs. the Titans. He’s viable in all formats, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
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Tony Pollard ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Pollard is on the other side of that matchup vs. the Texans, which makes him a risky option. If the Titans are getting blown out, it’s going to be tough for him to return value.
That said, he’s maintained a really solid role in their offense all season. He’s handled 65% of their rushing attempts and been targeted on 19% of his routes run, and he’s also been their preferred runner near the goal line. That’s a strong combination, and it makes him too cheap at just $6,500.
Pollard is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at the second-highest rate on FanDuel, trailing only McCaffrey.
Rachaad White ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
No player has a bigger difference in projected ownership and optimal lineup rate this week than White. DFS players are significantly discounting his upside, which he’s put on display plenty of late. He’s finished as a top-five scorer at the position in two of his past four games, and he was RB14 in a third.
White has to split the carries with Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, but most of his value comes as a pass-catcher. He’s had elite usage in that department of late, including a season-high 26% target share in his most recent outing.
It’s possible that the return of Mike Evans puts a damper on his output, but White has had a healthy role as a pass-catcher all season. Even if he loses a couple of targets, he still has the chance for a big game vs. the Giants.
Aaron Jones ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
The Vikings will travel to Chicago to take on the Bears in Week 12, and they’re listed as just 3.5-point road favorites. The total is also less than 40 points, so this game doesn’t stand out as a prime target for fantasy purposes.
However, the Bears are a pretty good matchup for Jones. They’ve been a massive run funnel all season, ranking second in pass defense EPA but merely 25th against the run. Jones hasn’t been at his best recently, but this is a spot where he could get back on track.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Can anyone stop the Lions at this point? They’ve been absolutely mauling teams of late, and they even managed to win a game where their quarterback threw five interceptions.
Gibbs has been a pretty consistent source of value all season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his 10 outings. That includes a performance with 35.0 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings in Week 7, making him the highest-scoring RB of the week.
The Lions are 7.5-point road favorites once again in Week 12, and there’s no reason to think the Colts will be the team to slow them down. Gibbs is projected for roughly 12% ownership across the industry, but he has higher optimal rates on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
