The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Geno Smith ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
It’s another week with a relatively uninspiring group of DFS quarterbacks. Smith leads the way in our projections, and he is the only QB with a projected DraftKings Plus/Minus for the second straight week.
Smith did not come through for DFS players in Week 11. He finished with just 16.74 DraftKings points, and while that wasn’t disastrous, it also wasn’t enough to return value. He logged just 221 passing yards with an interception vs. the 49ers, but he was able to salvage his performance with a rushing score.
The good news is that Smith draws a much more favorable matchup this week vs. the Cardinals. They’re merely 23rd in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
This also stands out as one of the best games of the week for fantasy purposes. The 47.5-point total is the second-highest on the main slate, while the Cardinals are just one-point favorites. That suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, which tends to be the best environment for fantasy scoring.
Smith hasn’t been at his best recently, but he’s still QB11 in terms of fantasy points per game for the year. He’s underpriced across the industry in this matchup.
Jayden Daniels ($7,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Daniels is pricy at $9,000 on FanDuel, but he’s very affordable at just $7,000 on DraftKings. It puts him in the same realm as most of the other top QBs on the slate, but Daniels tops them all in projections.
Daniels came out of the gates red hot to start his NFL career. He racked up at least 20.72 DraftKings points in six of his first eight games. The only exceptions were a game that he left early due to injury and a game where his team had to settle for seven field goals. The Commanders were the top offense in the league in EPA per play over that time frame, and Daniels was second only to Lamar Jackson in terms of fantasy scoring.
Daniels has cooled down since then. It might be due to a rib injury that he sustained, which has limited his rushing upside. Over his first six games, Daniels had a designed run rate of 20% and a scramble rate of 15%. Since returning to the lineup, those figures have dipped to 11% and 9%, respectively. However, head coach Dan Quinn says that Daniels is healthy, so it might have more to do with matchups than anything else. He’s faced two of the top defensive teams in football in the past two weeks, so it’s not surprising that his production has waned.
If Daniels is healthy, he should absolutely feast on the Cowboys in Week 12. Their defense has been an abomination all season, particularly against the run. They’re dead last in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
This is the perfect spot to buy low on one of the most gifted QBs in football. His price tag has decreased by -$600 from its peak on DraftKings, and the Commanders’ 27.5 implied team total is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Bo Nix ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Nix has come such a long way in a very short time frame. He started the year looking completely overmatched against NFL defenses. He averaged just 2.65 adjusted yards per attempt through his first two starts, and he wasn’t much better in his next two (4.85 AY/A).
Since then, Nix has been nothing short of one of the best QBs in fantasy. He’s averaged more than 21.5 fantasy points per game, and he’s finished as a top-12 QB in five of seven games. He’s been one of the more underrated rushing threats at the position – he’s averaged 26.8 yards per game with five total touchdowns – and he continues to improve mightily as a passer. Nix is coming off the best passing game of his career last week vs. the Falcons, completing 84.8% of his passes for 307 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Nix draws another phenomenal matchup this week vs. the Raiders, who are merely 26th in pass defense EPA. Additionally, their secondary is also really banged up at the moment, with three different cornerbacks missing practice to start the week. Given the way Nix has progressed all year, it should surprise no one if he lights this defense up like a Christmas tree. Only Smith and Daniels are showing up in the optimal lineup sims at a higher frequency on DraftKings.
Anthony Richardson ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Richardson made his return to the lineup last week after being benched in favor of Joe Flacco. It wasn’t an easy spot vs. the Jets, but Richardson turned in his best performance of the year. He racked up 272 yards and a touchdown through the air, and he added another 32 yards and two scores on the ground.
That’s what makes Richardson one of the most tantalizing QB prospects in football. He possesses athleticism that other quarterbacks can only dream of. He combines the size of Cam Newton with the speed of Lamar Jackson, so as long as he can stay on the field, he should be able to rack up tons of fantasy points with his legs.
The problem is he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. He’s dealt with numerous injuries, while his inconsistent passing led to him getting benched. After last week’s performance, the second issue should at least be in the rearview mirror for the foreseeable future.
Richardson will have to deal with the Lions in Week 12, which is never a fun matchup. However, this game has the highest total of the week, and as a 7.5-point underdog, Richardson should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. As long as he’s on the field for the duration, $5,600 is simply too cheap of a price tag.
Jordan Love ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Most of the top quarterback options on this slate stand out as significantly better values on DraftKings than FanDuel. Love is the clear exception. He leads the slate with an 83% Bargain Rating, making him one of the best options at the position. He’s -$200 cheaper than Richardson and -$100 cheaper than Smith, but he’s significantly more expensive than both players on DraftKings.
Love hasn’t been able to replicate his success from the second half of last year when he broke out as one of the best quarterbacks in football. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past six outings, and he’s tossed a league-high 11 interceptions in just eight games.
However, Love is coming off a strong showing last week vs. the Bears. He didn’t throw the ball often – he attempted just 17 passes – but he was hyper-efficient with his chances. He racked up 261 yards and a score, and he added a second touchdown with his legs. The result was an average of 13.88 adjusted yards per attempt, which was easily his best performance of the year.
That came against an elite Bears pass defense, so this week’s matchup will be better by default. The 49ers aren’t awful defensively, but they’re not nearly as intimidating as they’ve been in years past. Both of these squads are more offensive-minded, which is why the 46.5-point total is the third-highest mark on the slate.
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Caleb Williams ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Bears made the decision to change their offensive coaching staff heading into last week’s game vs. the Packers. The results were promising, with the team putting up significantly more yards than they had in a month.
Williams was the biggest beneficiary. Instead of spending the entire game on his back, Williams used his legs much more often. He had nine carries, which he turned into a season-high 70 rushing yards. Williams didn’t manage a single touchdown, but he still finished with 16.24 DraftKings points.
His price tag is down to just $5,100 on DraftKings, making him one of the cheapest QBs on the slate. If he can maintain his aggressiveness as a runner while adding a few scores, he has excellent upside vs. the Vikings. He’s projected for far less ownership than his optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
Sam Darnold ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Darnold will have to navigate the Bears’ defense. They’re No. 2 in pass defense EPA for the year, so that’s a tough ask for anyone.
Still, Darnold has provided steady fantasy value for most of the season, and he has at least 22.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He’s third at the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, so he’s worth some consideration for tournaments.
Drake Maye ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Expectations were extremely low for Maye entering the season. He was the No. 3 pick in the draft, but reports out of training camp were dreadful. One beat reporter called him “the ghost of Mac Jones,” while others pondered if sixth-round pick Joe Milton wasn’t the superior prospect.
Turns out, all that panic in New England was unfounded. Maye has more than held his own since taking over for the Patriots, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of five full games. His matchup vs. the Dolphins isn’t great, but he’s another player who seems underpriced for the production he’s provided.
