NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (November 18) for Texans vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football

It’s a Texas-sized showdown to wrap up NFL Week 11. The Houston Texans will travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. This matchup admittedly felt more important when the schedule was first released, but any football is good football in my book. The Texans are listed as seven-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41.0.

The Texans got off to an excellent start this season, winning five of their first six games, but they’ve regressed hard in recent weeks. Fortunately, their offense is going to get a big shot in the arm with Nico Collins returning to the fold.

On the other side, the Cowboys are merely trying to survive. They’re down starting quarterback Dak Prescott, so their chances of making it back to the postseason are slim to none.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

It’s a bit surprising to see Joe Mixon as the most expensive option on this slate. There are a number of fantasy superstars between these two squads, but Mixon has been better than all of them. He’s scored at least 17.0 DraftKings points in all five games since returning from injury, and he’s had at least 26.4 DraftKings points in three of them.

Mixon’s workload with the Texans has made him one of the biggest workhorses in football. Over his past four outings, Mixon has handled a whopping 87% of the team’s rushing attempts. That includes nearly all of the short-yardage work, giving him plenty of upside as a touchdown scorer. He’s punched in eight touchdowns in his seven games played, and he’s scored at least one touchdown in every week but one.

Mixon isn’t the biggest pass-catching threat out of the team’s backfield, but he’s getting just enough to be viable there, too. He has a 42% route participation over the past four weeks, and he’s been targeted on 20% of his routes run. He has at least three targets in four of his past five outings, and he’s seen as many as six targets in a game this season.

The best thing Mixon has going for him is the matchup. Not only is his team a big favorite – which tends to bode well for running backs – but the Cowboys have been horrendous against the run all year. They’re dead last in rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered at least 184 rushing yards in three of their past four games.

Ultimately, Mixon grades out as one of the strongest options on the slate, leading all players in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.

CeeDee Lamb is technically questionable heading into Monday night, but all indications are that he’ll be in the lineup. The bigger question is whether or not he’ll be able to produce without Prescott.

Lamb’s first contest without his starting quarterback did not go well. He finished with just six catches for 21 yards, and his 8.4 DraftKings points was his worst mark of the year.

The good news is that Lamb still had 10 targets in that outing, and his target share checked in at 33%. Lamb’s target share sits at 31% since Week 4, so he’s been one of the busiest receivers in all of football.

There’s no guarantee those targets will lead to production vs. the Texans, but expect him to be busy once again. There’s plenty of risk with Lamb at his current price tag, but there’s some upside, too.

Nico Collins is the Texans’ superstar receiver, and he’ll return to the lineup following a five-game absence. When Collins has been on the field this season, his production has been elite. He’s second among receivers in PPR points per game, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase.

Collins’ underlying metrics are also phenomenal. He had a 29% target share and 45% air yards share through his four full contests despite having to share the load with two other standout receivers. With Stefon Diggs now out of the picture, Collins could assume an even larger share of the opportunities moving forward.

There’s always some risk in targeting a player in his first game back from injury, but Collins got in two full practices to end the week and wasn’t even listed on the final injury report. He should be a full go vs. the Cowboys, and as long as that’s the case, he’s underpriced at $10,400. 

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

No one will be happier to see Collins back in the lineup than C.J. Stroud. His production has been starkly different with Collins on and off the field this year. In Stroud’s five games with Collins, he’s averaged 277 passing yards, 1.4 passing touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions per game. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of those outings, and he cracked 20 fantasy points twice.

In his five games without Collins, Stroud’s averages dip to 197.2 passing yards, 1.0 touchdowns, and 0.6 interceptions per game. He’s returned positive fantasy value in just one of those starts, and he’s been held below 14 DraftKings points in four straight games.

That said, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Stroud on this slate. He still has a few negative factors working in his favor, the biggest one being the location. Stroud has some of the starkest home/road splits in all of football, and he’s averaged a ghastly -7.39 Plus/Minus when playing outside of Houston (per the Trends tool).

Still, it’s early enough in Stroud’s career to get too concerned about that. The matchup vs. the Cowboys is fantastic – Stroud leads the slate with a +4.9 Opponent Plus/Minus – and he has the highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models. This is a strong buy-low opportunity.

While the return of Collins is great for Stroud, it’s going to hurt the rest of the pass-catchers. That includes Tank Dell. Dell has seen a significant boost in targets for the shorthanded Texans of late, posting a target share of at least 28% in back-to-back contests. That’s probably not going to continue with Collins back in the fold.

Still, Dell is a talented player in his own right, and we’ve seen him succeed next to Collins in the past. He should still function as close to an every-down player with Diggs injured, and he remains an explosive big-play threat.

Dell is ultimately overpriced for his most likely outcome, but he still has the potential to post a big game. He’s much more reasonable at $10,500 on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with a 91% Bargain Rating.

The Cowboys have used a “by committee” approach at running back this season, but those days appear in the past. The team recently anointed Rico Dowdle as their top running back and stated a desire to get him more opportunities.

That will be easier said than done as a big underdog, especially with Dowdle not playing often in long-down and distance situations. The Texans are also an above-average defense, so $9,000 feels like too much for him.

Cooper Rush is one of the more interesting options on this slate. On one hand, $8,000 for a quarterback is extremely cheap in the single-game format. In general, quarterbacks score more fantasy points than the other positions, so Rush inherently provides some value at that figure.

On the other hand, there’s a chance that Rush doesn’t even finish this game. Trey Lance relieved Rush at the position last week, and if the Cowboys fall behind, it’s possible that they make the switch again. They’re clearly playing for the future at this point, so it makes sense to see if Lance can provide anything moving forward.

Rush was also extremely unimpressive last week, mustering just 45 passing yards on 23 attempts. He finished with exactly zero fantasy points, with his meager statistical production being erased by fumbles.

Rush hasn’t looked that dreadful when given the opportunity to play in the past, but he hasn’t exactly lit it up, either. His ceiling is ultimately pretty low, and his floor is absolutely cavernous.

There’s a big dropoff from Rush to Jake Ferguson, who is priced at $5,800. Like Lamb, Ferguson basically maintained his utilization despite the quarterback change. He had a 15% target share in Week 10, though he managed just 1% of the team’s air yards. His price tag has come down significantly – he was priced at $7,000 last week – so he’s a reasonable option in this matchup.

Dalton Schultz rounds out this price range. His target share has been pretty consistent all year, settling in at around 15% most weeks. That’s enough to make him viable at $5,000, and the only reason he hasn’t posted a better fantasy season is the fact that he has zero touchdowns. He had five touchdowns for the Texans last year, so perhaps he’s due for some positive regression.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Texans defense is way more expensive than usual at $6,200, but they’re showing up as the most under-owned play on the entire slate per Sim Labs.
• Jalen Tolbert ($4,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Tolbert has been an every-down player for the Cowboys since the injury to Brandin Cooks, and he posted a perfect 100% route participation last week. He’s provided value at points this season, but his production is ultimately dependent on the Cowboys’ uninspiring quarterbacks.
• John Metchie ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Even with Collins back, there are still some opportunities for the Texans’ supplementary receivers. Metchie stands out as the best of the bunch. He was targeted on 22% of his routes run last week, and he has the best projections for the Texans’ receivers outside of Collins and Dell on this slate.
• Xavier Hutchinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Hutchinson has consistently earned more snaps than Metchie, but he’s been far less productive with them.
• Dare Ogunbowale ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Ogunbowale is the Texans’ passing-catching specialist out of the backfield. That role can occasionally provide value, but he’s a stronger option when the team is expected to be playing from behind.
• Robert Woods ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Woods’ route participation dipped to just 26% last week, and with Collins back in the picture, he might not see the field at all vs. the Cowboys.
• Ezekiel Elliott ($2,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – If the Cowboys’ coaches are to be believed, Elliott is not going to be seen much moving forward. Given his average of 3.2 yards per carry, that’s probably for the best.
• Jalen Brooks ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Brooks has seen a healthy number of snaps for the Cowboys of late, but the addition of Jonathan Mingo could change things.
• Cade Stover ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Stover is typically a good bet for one or two targets each week. If one of those happens to go for a touchdown, it would be enough to return value at his current salary.
• KaVontae Turpin ($1,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Turpin is another player who will likely be impacted by the addition of Mingo. He hasn’t been playing much to begin with, so he’s not really an option on this slate.
• Hunter Luepke ($1,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Luepke has handled most of the third-down snaps for the Cowboys of late. That hasn’t led to much production, but he could potentially catch a couple of passes if he maintains that role vs. the Texans.