NFL Week 11 features a huge matchup with lots of playoff implications. The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Cincinnati Bengals, with the Chargers listed as 1.5-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 48.0 points.
The Bengals are currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs, but they remain an extremely dangerous squad. They’ve suffered multiple heartbreaking losses this season, including two to the Ravens and one to the Chiefs, but they’ve proven they can go toe-to-toe with anyone. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and if they can get into the playoffs, no one is going to want to see them on the schedule.
The Chargers are one of the teams trying to hold the Bengals off, making this matchup extremely important. They’ve won this season primarily with their defense, but their offense has made some strides in recent weeks.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Ja’Marr Chase has been the No. 1 receiver in fantasy this season. He’s averaged 22.5 PPR points per game, which puts him just slightly ahead of Nico Collins (21.3).
That said, the way Chase has put up his fantasy points this season has been a bit uninspiring. He’s had two games where he’s gone absolutely nuclear, both against the Ravens, but he hasn’t been as consistent as hoped. He has just a 25% target share and 30% air-yards share for the year, both of which are lower than you’d expect for the best receiver in fantasy.
The good news is that Chase’s numbers are trending in the right direction. He’s posted a 30% target share over the past six games, and he’s finished as a top-10 PPR receiver in four of them.
The bad news is that the past three weeks have come with Tee Higgins out of the lineup. Higgins will return to the fold in Week 11, and when he’s been available this season, he’s actually had a higher target share than Chase. He hasn’t been as dynamic with the ball in his hands, but in a lot of ways, Higgins has looked like the team’s top receiver. That might not be the case moving forward, but it still gives Chase a bit of a downgrade.
Add in the matchup vs. the Chargers, the No. 1 team in the league in pass defense EPA, and a $12,000 salary, and there are reasons to be bearish on Chase in this spot. Still, he leads the slate in median projection, and he trails only the quarterbacks in projected ceiling.
Speaking of the QBs, Joe Burrow is next on the pricing spectrum. He’s priced at a discount compared to Chase, but he’s been just as good for fantasy purposes. He’s the No. 4 QB in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s scored at least 30.14 DraftKings points in back-to-back contests.
He has to navigate the same tough matchup as Chase, but Higgins’ return should give him a boost in value. Having multiple stud receivers to lean on certainly can’t hurt.
Burrow also tends to save his biggest performances for when his team needs them most. He’s the rare quarterback who has performed better as an underdog than a favorite, averaging 21.26 DraftKings points per game in that split (per the Trends tool). He’s been a dog in just three games this season, and he’s scored 18.22, 37.78, and 36.72 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t necessarily expect 30-plus fantasy points like he did in both games vs. the Ravens, but it’s an encouraging sign nonetheless.
Burrow leads the stud tier in projected Plus/Minus, making him a strong choice at the Captain slot. If you do go that route, using Chase as a flex feels almost mandatory. The two players are extremely correlated, checking in at +0.75 on DraftKings. Top receivers and their QBs are almost always positively correlated, but that figure is significantly higher than most.
J.K. Dobbins rounds out this price range, and he’s the hardest to get excited about. He started the year with a bang, but since then, his efficiency has come crashing back to reality. He averaged an absurd 9.85 yards per attempt in his first two contests, but he’s dipped to 3.54 since then.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Dobbins has started to lose some work. Gus Edwards returned to the lineup in Week 10, and he had 10 carries to Dobbins’ 15. Those carries didn’t necessarily come in garbage time, either, and Dobbins’ 45% carry share was his lowest mark since Week 2.
Dobbins still profiles as the team’s top back, but his days of getting 20-plus carries are probably in the past. He’s going to need at least one touchdown to return value at his current salary, making him the riskiest option of the bunch.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
While Dobbins has seen a reduction in value of late, Chase Brown has seen his stock go to the moon. Zack Moss was placed on IR, leaving Brown as the clear No. 1 option in the team’s backfield. He played on 88% of their offensive snaps last week, and he handled 87% of their carries. The Bengals’ backup RBs combined for just a 4% snap share, so Brown has the potential to be one of the biggest workhorses in the league.
The Bengals didn’t run the ball much last week vs. the Ravens, but Brown was still able to get involved in the game plan. He had a season-high 11 targets, which he converted into nine catches for 52 yards. He’s now had at least five targets in back-to-back games, which gives him a nice floor regardless of game script.
There’s a chance that the Bengals’ backups will eat into his workload a bit more moving forward, but Brown’s stock is still pointing way up. He stands out as an excellent option at $9,600.
Justin Herbert is another player whose stock is clearly on the rise. He got off to a dreadful start this season, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first five games. Of course, that wasn’t entirely his fault. The team employed one of the most run-heavy philosophies over that time frame, posting a -5% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE). As a result, Herbert attempted 27 passes or fewer in four of five contests.
Since then, the Chargers have gone to a much more balanced approach. They’ve had a positive DBOE in three of their past four games, with last week’s demolition of the Titans standing out as the lone exception. That means Harbaugh has been much more willing to let Herbert cook in competitive contests.
This week’s matchup vs. the Bengals should definitely be competitive, making Herbert an appealing DFS target. He’s going to have to throw to keep up with Burrow and the Bengals, and he should be successful when doing so. He’s been extremely efficient all season, and the Bengals are merely 26th in pass defense EPA.
Assuming Higgins isn’t limited in his return to the lineup, he’s another strong option in this price range. Higgins has posted a 29% target share for the year, and he’s been at 32% or higher in each of his past four outings. Even in Chase’s monster showing vs. the Ravens in Week 5, Higgins still managed to earn more targets than him. He’s also been targeted further downfield, as he leads the team with a 41% air-yards share, so Higgins feels underpriced at $3,400 less than his superstar teammate.
Ladd McConkey has served as the Chargers’ unquestioned top receiver this season. His 23% target share isn’t elite, and he struggled to put up fantasy points when the team wasn’t throwing the ball much to start the year. However, he’s scored at least 11.4 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, with last week’s contest standing out as a clear outlier. He’s displayed a ceiling of more than 32 DraftKings points, so he has plenty of upside at his current salary.
While McConkey is the team’s clear top receiver, Quentin Johnston is their big-play threat. After a disastrous rookie season, he’s bounced back with a really nice sophomore campaign. He’s already scored five touchdowns in just seven games, and he’s increased his yards per target from 6.4 as a rookie to 10.6 this year.
That said, Johnston’s target share for the year still sits at less than 20%. It makes him a high-risk, high-reward play at his current salary. He’s going to need to score to return value, but he’s done that at a pretty high clip all season.
Mike Gesicki is an interesting option on this slate. He’s been a solid value for the Bengals of late, but his production has been massively increased with Higgins out of the lineup. In his five games without Higgins this season, he’s had at least six targets in four of them. In his five games with Higgins, he’s had two or fewer in four.
With Higgins now back in the picture, it’s possible that Gesicki turns back into a pumpkin. However, the injury to Erick All should at least keep him on the field for a solid percentage of snaps. He’s a much more appealing target on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with an 87% Bargain Rating.
Josh Palmer and Will Dissly round out this price range. Palmer’s salary stands out as too high on DraftKings as the team’s WR3. He’s consistently been targeted on around 15% of his routes run this season, and with McConkey and Johnston both healthy, he’s not really on the field enough for that to matter.
Dissly is the far more intriguing option. Dissly has been a target monster all season. He’s been targeted on 27% of his routes run, and his role has consistently grown as the year has progressed. He has a target share of at least 18% in four of his past five games, and the only reason he hasn’t provided more value is that he’s yet to find the paint. The Bengals have allowed the second-most touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, so this stands out as a potential breakout spot.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. All four of these options are showing up with less projected ownership than their optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
- Tanner Hudson ($3,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – This is not a particularly exciting slate for value plays. Hudson likely won’t see as many snaps with Higgins back in the lineup, but he’s typically involved when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on at least 33% of his routes run in back-to-back weeks.
- Gus Edwards ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Edwards is probably the safest option in this price range (outside of the defenses and kickers). He had a 40% carry share in his return to the lineup last week, and he’s always a threat to punch in a short touchdown.
- Andrei Iosivas ($3,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Iosivas should return to the WR3 role in Cincinnati with Higgins back in the fold. In his five games with Higgins this season, Iosivas has posted a 76% route participation but just a nine percent target share.
- Khalil Herbert ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Herbert was unable to make an impact in his first week with the Bengals, but he was brought in for a reason. Maybe it’s just to give the Bengals a bit of depth at RB, but it’s possible he earns more snaps as he gets more acclimated with the offense.
- Hayden Hurst ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Hayden Hurst revenge game? He has just a 17% route participation and three percent target share across his past three games, so probably not.
- Jalen Raegor ($600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Raegor has seen around a 35% route participation for the Chargers of late, and he’s been targeted on 12% of his routes run for the year. It’s enough to give him just a smidge of viability at his current price tag.
