NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Sunday, November 17)

Sunday features a seven-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Stud

Fred VanVleet has spent some time on the injury report of late, but he was officially removed before the team’s game on Friday. That’s good news for DFS players. VanVleet has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including 48.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute for the season, and he’s projected for 35 minutes Sunday vs. the Bulls.

That makes VanVleet underpriced regardless of matchup, but his current matchup is as good as it gets. The Bulls have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and they’re 23rd in defensive efficiency. As a result, the Rockets’ implied team total of 119.0 is the top mark on Sunday’s slate.

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Value

The Cavaliers are going to be without Donovan Mitchell on Sunday, who is getting the day off for rest. That’s the type of thing you can do when you’ve won 14 straight games to start the year.

Mitchell’s absence should give the rest of the team a significant boost in value, including Ty Jerome. Jerome has already been a solid source of value of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s projected for more playing time than usual Sunday. He’s projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s seen a team-high +8.55% usage bump with Mitchell off the court this season. He’s responded with an average of 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and while I wouldn’t expect that to continue moving forward, it makes him one of the best values of the day at just $4,000.

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Fast Break

Scoot Henderson is still trying to find his footing at the NBA level, but he’s shown some improvement in his second season. He should see a few additional minutes Sunday with Anfernee Simons out and Deandre Ayton doubtful, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the floor this season.

Cade Cunningham ranks second at the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he’s posted some huge fantasy performances of late. He’s scored at least 50.5 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he has the potential for another big showing vs. the Wizards. They’re second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, so they’re one of the best matchups in fantasy.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Caris LeVert becomes one of the top options on the slate with Mitchell out of the lineup. There’s a good chance he moves into the starting lineup, and he’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. It’s hard to ignore LeVert at $5,200 with that much playing-time upside.

LeVert has also seen a big spike in production with Mitchell off the floor this season, averaging 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. Add in a decent matchup vs. the Hornets, and he’s one of the top plays of the day. He leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus.

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Value

Shaedon Sharpe is another member of the Blazers who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s played in just five games this season, but his workload has been ramped up recently. He’s played at least 32.9 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 31.75 DraftKings points in both.

With Simons out of the picture, Sharpe should assume another sizable workload on Sunday. In his first game without Simons this season, Sharpe posted a 34.4% usage rate and racked up 42.0 DraftKings points. Overall, he’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% with Simons and Ayton off the floor, so he has significantly more upside than his $4,900 salary suggests.

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Fast Break

Brandon Miller has struggled to find his shooting stroke this season, knocking down just 36.2% of his shots from the field and 31.5% of his 3-pointers. Miller was significantly better as a rookie, so there’s no reason to expect his struggles to continue forever. His shot volume remains strong, as he’s had at least 16 shot attempts in five straight games, so he has strong upside when his shot starts falling. He has some buy-low appeal at $6,700.

You probably don’t need to target a guy like Garrison Matthews on Sunday. There’s enough value that his $3,600 price tag isn’t required. Still, he’s grading out extremely well in our NBA Models. He’s second at the position in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only LeVert.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

There aren’t a ton of pay-up options at SF on Sunday, but Josh Hart warrants consideration. He’s not the typical fantasy stud, as he’s averaging just 13.2 points per game, but he’s an absolute monster in the peripheral categories. He’s averaging 9.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game, making him a nightly threat for a triple-double.

Hart has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 42.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four. He continues to log as many minutes as anyone in basketball, and his 37 projected minutes Sunday is the top mark at the SF position. He’s also projected for less than five percent ownership, making him an interesting way to diversify your lineups.

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Value

Amen Thompson remains a work in progress, but he’s capable of racking up fantasy points whenever he’s on the floor. He’s an outstanding rebounder for his size, averaging 6.6 rebounds per game for his career, which gives him a solid floor for his salary. He’s also capable of piling up the defensive statistics; he had a game with four blocks and four steals earlier this week.

Thompson is seeing more playing time as the year progresses, logging at least 28.2 minutes in two of his past three games. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s underpriced at $5,400.

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Fast Break

Dillon Brooks has seen an uptick in minutes recently, logging at least 30.2 minutes in four straight games. He’s responded with at least 20.5 DraftKings points in each contest. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a +3.97 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool), so Brooks should continue to provide value at $3,900.

Tari Eason doesn’t typically see quite as many minutes as Brooks, but he makes up for it with his superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 27.0 DraftKings points in five straight games. He’s definitely in play at $5,200 in an elite matchup.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Sticking with the theme of the day, Jerami Grant is another potential target for the shorthanded Blazers. Grant hasn’t provided much production so far this season, which has caused his salary to drop to $6,400. That’s a reasonable figure on most slates, but it makes him a clear value given their current injury situation. Grant has increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.34% with Simons and Ayton off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute.

He could be even better in that split moving forward. Grant hasn’t shot the ball quite as well as usual this season, knocking down just 38.5% of his shot attempts from the field. He’s been a better than 45% shooter for his career, so he has plenty of room for improvement.

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Value

The Grizzlies aren’t quite as shorthanded as some of the other teams on this slate, but they are expected to be without Ja Morant and Marcus Smart. That opens up some significant usage and playing time for the rest of the roster.

Vince Williams stands out as one of the biggest potential beneficiaries. He’s only played in one game this season, but he racked up 24.25 DraftKings points in 23.8 minutes. He’s projected for a similar role Sunday, making him way too cheap at $3,500. His 87% Bargain Rating is the top mark at PF on this slate.

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Fast Break

Tobias Harris continues to get the job done for the Pistons. He’s not the flashiest player in fantasy, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games. He’s projected for 34 minutes Sunday vs. the Wizards, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute for the year.

We have to pay up somewhere on Sunday, as there’s too much value not to, and Jalen Johnson has the top ceiling outside of the point guards and centers. He’s racked up at least 53.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he has the potential to go for 60-plus vs. the Blazers.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

We may not have Nikola Jokic available Sunday, but we at least have the diet version. Alperen Sengun checks a lot of the same boxes as the three-time MVP. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points in every category across the board, resulting in an average of 1.55 DraftKings points per minute.

Sengun has been at his best recently. He’s scored at least 45.5 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s had at least 56.0 in two of his past three. That gives him significant upside in an elite matchup vs. the Bulls. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +10.42, and Sengun’s 14 Pro Trends rank first on the slate regardless of position.

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Value

With Ayton likely sitting for the second straight game, the coast is clear for Donovan Clingan to pick up another start. Clingan was extremely impressive in his last outing, racking up 50.5 DraftKings points across 31.5 minutes. He had a double-double with 17 points and 12 rebounds, and he added a ridiculous eight blocks. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but he’s certainly capable of paying off his $4,200 salary.

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Fast Break

Jarrett Allen has also seen a nice boost in value with Mitchell off the floor this season. He’s seen a +5.18% usage bump in that scenario, resulting in an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute. He’s coming off more than 50 DraftKings points in his last outing, so he’s a reasonable target at $7,300.

Finally, don’t forget about Jabari Smith for the Rockets. He may never live up to where he was drafted, but he’s coming off his best game of the season by a mile. He racked up 51.25 DraftKings points in 35 minutes, so he at least has a significant ceiling for his salary.