Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Jauan Jennings ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
With so many elite pay-up options at running back this week, finding some value at the receiver position is the top priority. Fortunately, there are a number of strong value options to choose from, starting with Jennings.
Jennings returned to the 49ers lineup following an extended absence in Week 10, and he immediately stepped back into a huge role. He led the team with a 95% route participation, and he racked up a 33% target share. He had 11 targets overall, which he turned into seven catches for 93 yards.
With Christian McCaffrey also back in the fold, the 49ers are poised to put up big numbers down the stretch. They were among the league leaders in virtually every category last season, and there’s no reason they can’t do it again. Brandon Aiyuk is the only piece not available from last year’s run, and Jennings has proven capable of filling his shoes.
The offense has significant upside this week vs. the Seahawks. It’s a matchup that the 49ers have dominated in recent years, and their 27.25-point implied team total is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
Jennings could also benefit from the absence of George Kittle, who is currently listed as questionable. If he’s unable to suit up, Jennings could be looking at double-digit targets for the second straight week.
Ultimately, Jennings leads all receivers on DraftKings in terms of projected Plus/Minus. He’s a great way to start your receiving corps.
Kayshon Boutte ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
Boutte is a really cheap potential source of value this week. He’s priced near the minimum across the industry, but he’s taken on a significantly larger role in the Patriots’ passing attack in recent weeks. He’s posted a route participation of at least 86% in four straight games, culminating with a perfect 100% mark last week vs. the Bears.
Boutte has also seen his targets trend in the right direction. He had a 29% target share last week – his best mark of the season – and he’s up to a 20% target share over his past three games. That’s the best mark for all of the Patriots’ pass-catchers, as is his 42% air yards share over that time frame.
Overall, he looks a lot like the Patriots’ No. 1 receiver, which makes his current price tag simply too cheap. That’s especially true given his matchup vs. the Rams, who are merely 22nd in pass defense EPA for the year.
Cedric Tillman ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
The Browns are coming off a bye in Week 10, and they’ll head to New Orleans for a juicy matchup vs. the Saints. New Orleans has been extremely exploitable on the defensive end of late. From Week 3 on, they’re 27th in the league in defensive EPA. They’ve allowed multiple teams to go off against them, and the Panthers were the only team that has failed to crack 315 yards since then.
The Browns have made some changes in their offense of late, most notably trading Amari Cooper to Buffalo and moving Jameis Winston to quarterback. Those changes have mostly worked, and they’ve allowed Tillman to emerge as a legitimate starting fantasy receiver. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, averaging 10.7 targets, seven receptions, and 85 receiving yards per game. He’s also found the endzone three times in that stretch, and his utilization is outstanding: 91% route participation, 24% target share, 33% air yards share.
At this point, he’s the clear WR1 in Cleveland. He’s not being priced that way, so he’s another clear value target on this slate.
Khalil Shakir ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Shakir rounds out this tier, and he’s best deployed on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,500, which makes him a clear target. It results in a 97% Bargain Rating, which is tied for the fourth-best mark at the position.
Shakir isn’t a huge big-play threat – he has just an 11% air yards share for the season – but he’s been extremely consistent from a target standpoint. Over the past four weeks, he’s had a target share of at least 21% in each contest. His routes also trended upward last week, with his 85% mark tying for a new season-high.
The Bills will take the field in a massive showdown vs. the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has historically gotten the best of Buffalo, so this is their chance to make a statement. It’s a tough matchup, but expect the Bills to throw everything they have at the Chiefs on offense.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Deebo Samuel ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
While Jennings might be the best pure value in the 49ers’ receiving corps, Samuel still has the highest ceiling. He doesn’t get as many targets as the typical No. 1 receiver, but he does make up for it partially with his work on the ground. He’s had at least three carries in each of his past four full contests, which gives him some extra scoring potential around the goal line.
That’s not to say that Samuel isn’t dangerous as a receiver as well. He’s one of the most explosive players in football with the ball in his hands, so he’s capable of taking a short reception and turning it into a long gain. We saw that in his first matchup vs. the Seahawks this season when he finished with three catches, 102 yards, and a score.
Like Jennings, Samuel would also benefit if Kittle is unable to suit up. Regardless, no receiver is showing up with a higher optimal lineup rate on DraftKings using Sim Labs.
Cortland Sutton ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The Broncos’ season started with a whimper, which is not that surprising for a team breaking in a rookie quarterback. They were expected to be one of the worst teams in football, and they looked like it through the first two weeks.
However, Bo Nix has made some steady progress throughout the year, and Sutton has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s solidified his status as the team’s top receiver, racking up a target share of at least 30% in three straight weeks. He also has 40% of their air yards and 41% of their end zone targets for the year, so his workload is extremely desirable at the moment.
Ultimately, Sutton has averaged 10 targets over his past three games, and he’s responded with at least 100 yards or a touchdown in each. He’s scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in all three contests, including a season-high 26.28 two weeks ago vs. the Ravens.
He’s another midrange receiver who feels too cheap on this slate, especially in a solid matchup vs. the Falcons.
Davante Adams ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
The Jets are a disaster. Just when it seemed like they were going to save their season, they suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Cardinals. They mustered just six points and 207 yards of total offense in what was undoubtedly their worst performance of the year.
While Adams hasn’t had the impact on the offense that some were hoping for, it’s not due to a lack of opportunities. His target share has increased in each subsequent week, culminating with a 39% mark last week. He’s had at least a 37% target share and 43% air yards share in back-to-back games, so he’s established himself as Aaron Rodgers’ No. 1 target very quickly.
Adams hauled in just six passes for 31 yards last week, but his 13 targets provide plenty of optimism moving forward. The Jets draw another fortuitous matchup this week vs. the Colts, who have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Jakobi Meyers ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Meyers is projected for just six percent ownership this week, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. His optimal lineup rate is closer to 10% in Sim Labs, making him one of the most undervalued options of the week.
Editor’s note: after this article was submitted, Meyers’ ownership projection was boosted to 16.5%. He’s still one of the best values on the slate.
Since losing Adams, Meyers and Brock Bowers have been the 1A and 1B of the Raiders’ passing attack. Meyers is coming off a 37% target share and 45% air yards share last week, and he’s scored at least 17.2 DraftKings points in back-to-back games since returning from injury.
I’d expect nothing to change this week vs. the Dolphins. It’s not the best matchup on paper, but Meyers is simply too cheap to ignore.
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Hopkins struggled to overcome a tough matchup last week vs. the Broncos, finishing with just 9.6 DraftKings points. That said, don’t forget what he did two weeks ago. He racked up nine targets vs. the Buccaneers, and he finished with eight grabs for 86 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the type of upside he possesses as Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 receiver.
DeVaughn Vele ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
I really like the idea of using Vele as a cheap WR3 in tournaments this week. He’s coming off his best game of the year last week vs. the Chiefs, finishing with an 82% route participation and 15% target share. He also managed to find the end zone, so he has much more upside than his current salary suggests.
You can stack Vele with Nix pretty cheaply, and you can even throw in Sutton for a larger double-stack.
Ladd McConkey ($6,300 FanDuel)
McConkey isn’t going to be very contrarian on FanDuel, which is the only site where he’s available this week. That said, he’s undoubtedly one of the strongest plays at the position. He’s been the Chargers clear No. 1 receiver this season, and Los Angeles has started to throw the ball a bit more after going extremely run-heavy to start the year.
The Chargers might not have a choice but to take to the air Sunday night vs. the Bengals. Cincinnati has one of the most explosive offenses in the league, but their defense is just as exploitable. If Justin Herbert airs it out a bit more than usual, he and McConkey should be able to put together strong performances.
Ultimately, no receiver has a higher optimal lineup rate on FanDuel using Sim Labs.
