Week 11 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

Kamara continues to stand out as one of the safest investments in all of fantasy. His workload on a week-to-week basis is absolutely elite. He had another six targets and 17 carries last week vs. the Falcons, and while he didn’t do a ton with them, he still managed to get to 15.9 DraftKings. That feels like a floor-type of performance.

His ceiling is significantly higher. Just the previous week, Kamara racked up 29 carries and nine targets, and he finished with 30.5 DraftKings points despite failing to score a touchdown. Scoring that many fantasy points without the benefit of a touchdown (or two) is basically impossible and a testament to how much work he receives on a weekly basis.

His work in the passing game is what truly sets him apart. He’s posted a 24% target share this season, which is easily the highest mark at the RB position. No other running backs with multiple games played are above 17%, so the gap between him in the rest of the field is massive.

Kamara is also currently listed as a slight favorite vs. the Browns, and he’s historically smashed in that split. He’s averaged 21.17 DraftKings points as a favorite, good for a +3.76 average Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).

Kamara’s price tag on FanDuel is an absolute joke, but he’s an elite target across the industry. He’s second at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.  

De’Von Achane ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

As good as Kamara is, Achane stands out as the better option of the two on DraftKings. He’s -$1,000 cheaper than Kamara on that site despite being $500 more expensive on FanDuel. That’s a massive discrepancy that we should be taking advantage of.

When Tua Tagovailoa has been in the lineup this season, Achane has basically smashed. Last week’s game vs. the Rams stands out as the lone exception. Otherwise, Kamara has scored at least 23.0 DraftKings points in his other four games with Tagovailoa. He’s averaged 7.5 targets in those four contests, giving him one of the most desirable roles in all of fantasy.

Last week also represented a bit of a changing of the guard in the Dolphins backfield. Raheem Mostert failed to record a single carry, with Achane and Jaylen Wright splitting the carries instead. As a result, Achane got to a 57% carry share in Week 10, which was his highest mark since Week 2.

Achane is in an elite spot this week vs. the Raiders. The Dolphins are favored by a full touchdown at home, and the Raiders are merely 21st in rush defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs.

Audric Estime ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

This feels like a great week to target some of the more expensive running backs in fantasy. That said, if you need a cheap RB to round out your core, you could do worse than Estime. He’s dirt cheap across the industry, but he profiles as the Broncos’ lead back heading into their matchup vs. the Falcons.

Estime has been a non-factor for most of the year, but he came seemingly out of nowhere to lead the team with 64% of their carries vs. the Chiefs. Estime has averaged 5.1 yards per attempt this season, which is easily the top mark among the Broncos’ RBs. Javonte Williams has averaged 3.8 yards per attempt, while Jaleel McLaughlin hasn’t been much better at 4.0.

With that in mind, it should shock no one if Estime takes the early-down job and runs with it. The only thing keeping him from being a stronger option is his lack of involvement as a pass-catcher. He played on none of the long-down and distance snaps last week, so he’s going to need to do most of his damage with rushing yards and touchdowns.

That’s an issue, but it would be a much larger concern if he were more expensive. At just $4,500, he can still very easily return value without catching any passes. He also draws a solid matchup this week vs. the Falcons, who are merely 20th in rush defense EPA.

If Estime earns the majority of the carries for the second straight week, expect him to be significantly more expensive in Week 12.

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Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Christian McCaffrey ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)

It’s good to have CMC back in our lives. The unquestioned No. 1 pick in redraft leagues suited for the first time in Week 10, and he picked up basically right where he left off last season. He played on 89% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps, and he handled 68% of the team’s carries. He was also very involved as a pass-catcher, posting a 21% target share. The only thing he didn’t do was score a touchdown, something he did 21 times in 16 regular season games last year.

With McCaffrey essentially operating at full strength, there’s no reason not to target him at $8,300 on DraftKings. That represents a tremendous discount compared to what we’re used to paying for him. He’s averaged more than 24.2 DraftKings points as a member of the 49ers, and he’s posted a +5.22 Plus/Minus when priced below $9,000.

McCaffrey should be very chalky this week, but for good reason: no RB is showing up with a higher optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. You can also certainly use him in cash games, but he doesn’t grade out quite as favorably as Kamara and Achane in terms of projected Plus/Minus. 

Aaron Jones ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

Jones was carted off the field last week vs. the Jaguars, which ultimately robbed DFS players of a potentially big performance. He finished with 12.1 DraftKings points despite playing on just over 50% of the snaps, so who knows what would’ve happened if he didn’t get hurt.

The good news is that Jones’ injury isn’t going to cost him any additional game time. He’s not even listed on the team’s final injury report, so he’s 100% good to go vs. the Titans.

It’s another spot where Jones has plenty of appeal. The Vikings are listed as 5.5-point favorites, and Jones has historically crushed as a favorite for his career. He’s historically averaged a +2.29 Plus/Minus in that split, though most of those results came with the Packers.

Still, Jones continues to get more work than he has at any point in his career. Excluding last week’s game, Jones has had at least 68% of his team’s rushing attempts in five of his past six contests. With his efficiency – he’s averaged 5.0 yards per attempt for his career – he has the potential to do plenty of damage in a favorable game script.

Chase Brown ($6,800 FanDuel)

Brown is only available on FanDuel, but he’s one of the best possible options on that slate. In fact, he leads all running backs in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

There was some concern about what Brown’s role would look like following the addition of Khalil Herbert at the trade deadline, but the early returns are extremely promising. Herbert had a botched exchange on his first snap, and he wasn’t seen for the rest of the game. As a result, Brown played on a season-high 88% of the snaps, and he handled at least 87% of the team’s carries for the second straight week.

Brown also has plenty of upside as a pass-catcher. He was extremely active in that role last week, turning 11 targets into nine catches vs. the Ravens. That’s a bit of an outlier, but Brown still has at least three targets in seven of his past eight games.

That makes him viable in all game scripts. If the Chargers fall behind, Brown can do a bit more as a receiver. If they’re ahead, Brown can pick up a few additional carries. Either way, he’s egregiously underpriced at just $6,800.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Jonathan Taylor ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

Taylor draws a matchup vs. the Jets this week, which should get fantasy players drooling. The Jets have been an abject disaster against the run this season, allowing 134 rushing yards per game, and they’re merely 26th in rush defense EPA. They’ve surrendered plenty of big fantasy performances to opposing RBs this season, so Taylor could be poised for a huge day.

The return of Anthony Richardson should also help. Richardson may not be a very good passer – and that’s a generous way to put it – but his legs are a real threat in the run game. Opposing defenses have to respect his ability to tuck it and run, which should open up bigger holes for Taylor. He’s averaged better than five yards per carry when playing alongside Richardson this season.

Taylor is currently projected for less than 10% ownership, making him a very intriguing pivot off guys like Kamara, Achane, and McCaffrey. 

Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

Robinson is another high-priced option who could be a bit overlooked this week. He got off to a slow start this season, but he’s rattled off at least 21.5 DraftKings points in five straight games. That includes a season-high 32.4 DraftKings points last week, so he’s ultimately produced just like he was expected to this offseason.

Robinson is in an interesting spot this week vs. the Broncos. Denver has an outstanding defense, but they’ve been better against the pass than the run this season. They’re fourth in pass defense EPA, but they dip to No. 11 against the run.

With that in mind, don’t be surprised if the Falcons lean on their rushing attack in this spot. Robinson has averaged 5.24 yards per carry over his past six games, so it’s a good opportunity to feed the hot hand.  

Nick Chubb ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

Chubb has not looked like himself since returning to the lineup in Week 7. He’s yet to crack more than 52 rushing yards in a game, and he’s averaged a paltry 2.69 yards per attempt. That’s ultimately not all that unsurprising after suffering a major leg injury last season.

Still, this is Nick Chubb we’re talking about. He’s one of the most efficient runners in NFL history. Even with his slow start this season, he’s still averaged 5.2 yards per carry for his career. It’s only a matter of time before he gets back on track.

Chubb should be ready to go following the Browns Week 10 bye, and he draws an elite matchup vs. the Saints. Their defense has been absolutely shredded over the past month, so this could be Chubb’s breakout spot. No RB has a bigger discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate on this slate. 

Kareem Hunt ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Is Hunt a good football player at this point? Probably not. His efficiency has left a lot to be desired during his run with the Chiefs, and he’s probably going to cede the starting job to Isiah Pacheco as soon as he’s ready to go.

But is Hunt getting tons of volume for a Patrick Mahomes-led offense? Absolutely. He’s scored at least 17.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s tallied five total touchdowns over that time frame. He’s also coming off his most active game as a receiver, finishing with 10 targets vs. the Broncos.

Hunt is ultimately projected for less than 3% ownership vs. the Bills, and that feels too low for a player who has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games.