NFL DFS Picks: Week 11 Main Slate DraftKings Breakdown

We’re back to the standard mid-season 11-game slate this week, with a combination of bye weeks and a London game limiting the number of teams playing in the Sunday afternoon window.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Lamar Jackson ($8,000) Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5 Total)

The top tier of quarterbacks in both projection and salary is just two players, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen ($7,800). Neither is projecting to draw much ownership this week due to the tight salary structure of the slate, making them potential standout options this week.

Of the two, I prefer Jackson’s upside. He has a tougher matchup against the Steelers, but also has better Vegas data and a much higher ceiling. Allen is a near lock for 20 DraftKings points, having hit that figure in five straight games. However, he hasn’t exceeded 25 points in that span. That could always change this week — especially against the Chiefs — but it’s not the likeliest outcome.

On the flip side, half of Jackson’s last six games have gone for at least 32 DraftKings points, but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus score in the other three. Given the type of score we need from players in this price range, it’s worth the risk on Jackson to catch the ceiling game.

I don’t have any interest in spending up for cash games, but a small amount of exposure to Jackson and possibly Allen is worth it for GPPs, given their extremely low ownership.

Value: Brock Purdy ($6,600) San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (48 Total)

The reason the field — and I, mostly — aren’t too interested in the expensive quarterbacks is due to all of the tremendous plays in the mid-range. The two top options in Pts/Sal projection this week are Geno Smith ($5,700) and Brock Purdy, who happen to be playing in the same game.

The lower price tag on Smith has him as the best option in terms of Pts/Sal, but I greatly prefer the floor and ceiling provided by Purdy. His 49ers have the second-highest team total on the slate (behind the run-first Lions), and he doesn’t have to do much to put up fantasy points now that he has most of his weapons back.

Purdy has also been running more this season, particularly in the last few weeks. He has three rushing touchdowns and 20 carries over the past three games, a nice little boost on top of his passing production.

This game has clear shootout potential, which helps both players. However, the 49ers are a much tougher pass defense than the Seahawks, but worse against the run. With the Seattle ground game accounting for more of their touchdowns anyway, Smith is a bit of a riskier option.

Purdy is my favorite quarterback play on the slate for a second straight week.

Quick Hits

Patrick Mahomes ($6,800): It’s wild to see Mahomes priced this low, but it’s an accurate reflection of his (fantasy) production this season. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points just once, as he’s become — dare I say it — a bit of a game manager for the undefeated Chiefs. Those Chiefs are underdogs for the first time this season this week, though. They’re playing the Bills, who’ve brought out the best in Mahomes in a number of wild shootouts over the years. This might be the perfect buy-low time on the Chiefs’ passing offense.

Jared Goff ($6,300): The likeliest outcome in Lions-Jaguars is that Goff throws an early touchdown or two before the Lions’ ground game takes over in a game where they’re favored by 14. Goff has topped 25 pass attempts just once in the past six weeks, and it came during a come-from-behind win over the Texans. However, he’s also gone for at least 27 DraftKings points on just 18 completions on two separate occasions this season, both blowout wins. It’s a bit thin, but it’s not the craziest possibility.

Russell Wilson ($5,900): Wilson draws the Ravens, a massive pass-funnel defense that has allowed four quarterbacks to top 30 DraftKings points this season. It will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh goes that route this week, as they rank 31st in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season. Wilson has been fairly efficient since winning the starting job but is yet to top 29 passing attempts. If that changes this week, he could be in for a big game.

Anthony Richardson ($5,300): As recently as Week 2 this season, Richardson cost $6,800 on DraftKings. Now, after shuffling in and out of the starting role for the Colts, he’s all the way down to $5,300. He has a solid floor thanks to his rushing ability and could hit a big ceiling game if he figures it out as a passer. It’s not the best spot to do so against the Jets, but if we wait to see it, we’ll be too late.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud: Christian McCaffrey ($8,300) San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (48 Total)

Christian McCaffrey checks in at second in our median and ceiling projections at running back, behind only Alvin Kamara ($8,200). I prefer the 49ers star though, mostly thanks to the much better overall offensive environment.

McCaffrey was inefficient on his 13 carries last week while returning from the IR — but he still saw 13 carries and seven targets while playing on 87.5% of the snaps. That was against the Bucs’ top-10 (by DVOA) rushing defense.

This week he has the best offensive line matchup on the slate, and the second-highest team total. Kamara has the second-toughest offensive line matchup, and the Saints are implied for five fewer points.

Both are strong plays — and I’d love to somehow find the salary for both — but McCaffrey is my preferred option here. He’s a cash game priority and will be a big part of my GPP plans as well.

Value: De’Von Achane ($7,200) Miami Dolphins (-7.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (44 Total)

Barring any last-minute injuries, there are next to no cheap running backs with strong projections this week, making it an extremely tough slate for value. Of the top four options in Pts/Sal, the cheapest is De’Von Achane, who also leads the position in that category.

Even Achane has some question marks this week. Since getting Tua Tagovailoa back, Achane has drawn eight targets in both Dolphins losses, but just five in their win against the Rams. Miami is a heavy favorite this week, so Achane’s passing volume could be on the lower end of his range of outcomes.

On the plus side, he’s a near lock for double-digit carries, and the Raiders rank 29th in DVOA against the run. With Achane’s game-breaking speed, he just needs to break one of those carries for a long touchdown to pay off his salary.

The odds of doing that are much better this week than they’ve been in recent games. He’s not a “must-play” for cash games but is a strong option in all contest types.

Quick Hits

Audric Estime ($4,500): We don’t have a great projection on Estime, but there’s a huge range of outcomes possible for the Broncos rookie. He seemingly took over as Denver’s lead back last week, handling 14 of their 17 running back carries. However, his high before that point was just five, so it’s hard to say that he’ll continue in the lead role moving forward. He also hasn’t been targeted all season, so he is a pure “yards and touchdowns” back. He probably doesn’t have the ceiling necessary for GPPs, but he’s an interesting salary saver for cash games.

Bijan Robinson ($7,800): With a 38.4% touch share, I wouldn’t quite classify Robinson as a workhorse back (five players are north of 40%), but he has a rock-solid role in the Falcons offense and has been remarkably efficient. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations by at least six points in his last five games. It’s a tough matchup this week against the Broncos’ top-10 run defense, but Robinson has the talent to get there. I prefer finding the salary for CMC or Kamara for cash games, but he’s a reasonable pivot if you can’t find it.

Kyren Williams ($7,900): Williams leads the NFL in touch share at 45.8% and draws a solid matchup against a soft Patriots defense in Week 11. This might be the week that Sean McVay finally gets some touches for Blake Corum ($5,400), which makes Williams too thin for cash, but odds are he dominates the backfield yet again.

David Montgomery ($6,500): The Lions backfield as a whole has been incredibly productive this season, with the usage frustratingly split between Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300). Montgomery typically gets more run in positive game scripts, though, and the Lions are favored by 13.5 against the Jaguars. He needs multiple touchdowns or the 100-yard bonus to have a shot at paying off his salary this week, but both are in the realm of possibility.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud: Justin Jefferson ($8,600) Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans (39.5 Total)

It’s not the best week at the high end of wide receiver in Week 11, with questions around game script, matchup, or usage clouding most of the top players at the position. That includes Justin Jefferson, whose Vikings are favored in a game with just a 39.5-point total.

Jefferson leads the entire NFL in target share, but there might not be that much offensive production to go around against the Titans. Still, Jefferson is probably the league’s best overall wide receiver. If the game turns into a blowout, it’s pretty likely that Jefferson played a hand in getting it there.

The real value in spending up on Jefferson is based on his low projected ownership, though. He’s $600 more than anyone else at the position, which should shift most of the field to cheaper options with similar projections.

Since those players also have some holes this week, Jefferson could easily outscore the group and be a big differentiator in lineups. He’s too pricey for cash games, but I like him as a “pay up to be contrarian” GPP option. He leads the position in median and ceiling projections.

Value: Devaughn Vele ($3,900) Denver Broncos (-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (44 Total)

There’s not much value to be found at any position this week, leading to a second cheap Bronco as one of the better options at their respective position. At receiver, it’s Devaughn Vele, a seventh-round rookie who missed most of the first half of the season.

Over the last five weeks, he’s drawn at least three targets in every game, and caught all four of his Week 10 targets against the Chiefs. While that’s not the most inspiring stat line, it’s enough to give Vele the best projections among any sub-$4,400 wide receiver.

He also has a relatively soft matchup this week, with the Falcons ranking 26th in DVOA against the pass. Denver has shifted towards being a pass-first team in recent weeks as well, ranking sixth in PROE since Week 7.

At Vele’s price tag, even a scoreless three-catch, 30-yard performance is probably enough to get the job done for cash games. I’m not sure he has enough upside to be considered in GPPs, but we have to save salary somewhere there as well, so I’ll mix him in some.

Quick Hits

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000): St. Brown narrowly trails Jefferson for the highest median projection on the slate but checks in $600 cheaper. With tight end Sam LaPorta ruled out, we should see a higher target share for the slot receiver, who also does his best work over the middle of the field. With the Lions as massive favorites, there might not be much volume to go around, but the Sun God could get there on touchdowns.

Cooper Kupp ($7,500) and Puka Nacua ($7,300): Nacua seems to have pretty clearly moved past Kupp as the Rams’ top receiver, out-targeting Kupp 14-7 in Week 10 with both of them fully healthy. His average depth of target (aDOT) is a full five yards deeper as well, making him clearly the better play. They both have a strong matchup against the Patriots’ 30th-ranked passing defense this week. The argument for Kupp mostly surrounds ownership, but both are in the player pool.

Tyreek Hill ($7,400): Whether it’s the wrist injury, aging, or some other factor, it’s been a rough season for Tyreek Hill. His last game with more than 13 DraftKings points was Week 1, and the return of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback hasn’t made much of a difference. Still, seeing him at $7,400 AND sub-5% ownership is hard to pass up. I’m avoiding him for tighter builds, but he’s an interesting MME piece.

Davante Adams ($7,200) and Garrett Wilson ($7,100): In the last three weeks with both Adams and Wilson active, a trend has emerged for the Jets. Adams is averaging two more targets per game than Wilson but with a lower aDOT and fewer air yards. That makes Adams, at least theoretically, the better floor play, while Wilson is the deep-threat GPP option. The Colts are a bad defensive team that plays fast, so some Jets exposure makes sense here.

Jauan Jennings ($5,300): We’ve got Jennings projected just ahead of Vele for the highest Pts/Sal projection at wide receiver. Some of that is based on his 11 targets (30% share) in his return from injury last week to the full-strength 49ers offense. I’m not sure if that will continue on a weekly basis, as the 49ers could easily go with the hot hand in this, or any, game. I don’t trust it enough for cash games, but I’ll mix Jennings (and the other 49ers wideouts) into my GPP lineups and Purdy stacks.

Cedric Tillman ($5,300): The projections like Jennings, but I prefer Cedric Tillman in the wide receiver midrange. His worst game since Jameis Winston ($5,500) took over at quarterback was eight catches for 81 yards on 12 targets, and he has an excellent matchup against the Saints without Marshon Lattimore. Plus, the game is indoors at the Superdome — the Coors Field of fantasy football.

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NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud: Travis Kelce ($6,300) Kansas City Chiefs (+2) at Buffalo Bills (46 Total)

Travis Kelce has turned back the clock in recent weeks, with a ridiculous 40 targets over his last three games. He didn’t see this kind of usage until the playoffs in 2023, but the Chiefs are thin at pass-catcher and have heavily relied on their best weapon.

That’s led to at least 20 DraftKings points in each of those three games, despite facing the tough defense of the Broncos in a 16-14 victory last week. The game script should be much better this time around against the Bills, with the Chiefs as slight underdogs and the total at 46.

Kelce is projecting well clear of anyone else at the position, and he holds the highest Pts/Sal projection despite being the most expensive option. It’s not a great week to find the salary to spend up at tight end, but he could be a true separator on the slate. It might be worth paying up in cash games, and he should certainly be a centerpiece of Bills-Chiefs stacks.

Value: Hunter Henry ($3,900) New England Patriots (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The only sub-$4,000 tight end I’m seriously considering this time around is Hunter Henry, who’s seen a rise in his production since Drake Maye ($5,600) took over at quarterback for the Patriots. Henry has put up at least 9.5 DraftKings points in four of the five games with Maye under center, the lone exception coming against a tough Bears defense.

This is a much better matchup, with the Rams ranking 21st in DVOA against the pass and 24th in points allowed against tight ends. The Rams have the firepower to turn this into a negative game script for the Patriots, which should lead to more overall passing volume.

New England has also shifted to a more pass-heavy approach over the last four weeks, ranking 7th from Week 7 on. That obviously coincides with the quarterback change, but it’s good to see playcalling aligned as well.

Henry leads all Patriots pass-catchers in target share, snap count, and receiving yards on the season. He’s effectively their number one receiver, but priced at just $3,900 and tight end eligible. He’s the top receiver for a bad offense, but it’s still something.

Quick Hits

George Kittle ($6,000): Kittle has six touchdowns over the past six weeks, including two in the first matchup against the Seahawks. He draws Seattle again this week, and they’ve allowed a +1.6 Opponent +/- to tight ends on the season. Target (and touchdown) competition is a little stiffer with McCaffrey back in the fold compared to the first game, but I still want some Kittle exposure.

T.J. Hockenson ($4,700): Hockenson is still a bit underpriced after starting the season on IR, and appeared close to 100% in Week 10. He caught eight of nine targets for 72 yards against the Jaguars, resuming his role as the second option in the Vikings’ passing attack. This week, they draw the pass-funnel Titans, so that role could be valuable.

GPP Roster Construction

The key to taking down GPPs this week will be finding cheap players with upside. There are plenty of solid options this week — but they’re all expensive. Odds are there will be a cheap player or two that breaks out, but finding them is difficult.

I’ll get into some of those players this week in my SimLabs building blocks article.

Cash Games

The big decision this week for cash games might come down to tight end. Travis Kelce is far and away the best option at the position from a raw and price-considered standpoint. However, finding value at other positions is tricky this week, and tight end is typically where we spend down.

If rostering Kelce, you almost certainly have to take the punt on Audric Estime at running back. You can play two of the more expensive backs with him — but then you also need to go with cheaper wide receivers. That build also makes it hard to spend up to Brock Purdy at quarterback.

On the other hand, you could punt at tight end, and roster Purdy and either three (somewhat) expensive backs or Estime with a pair of mid-priced wide receivers.

I’m leaning towards option B, but fading Kelce is scary this week. Unless some more value appears at some point, there’s not really a clear option. It’s important to remember that everyone has the same player pool, though. The score required to cash is probably a bit lower than usual this week.