The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Purdy vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Purdy brings great value on DraftKings, where he has a 65% Bargain Rating and the top Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks in an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ. Purdy has the third-highest ceiling rating of all QBs on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Last week, Purdy got Christian McCaffrey back in the offense, and the yards after catch returned to coach Kyle Shanahan’s system. Purdy finished with two touchdown passes and a season-high 353 passing yards for 26.82 DraftKings and FanDuel points. It was his fourth straight game exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel, and he has rushed for three touchdowns in his last three games to boost his ceiling even higher.
He gets a rematch with the Seahawks this week, who he torched for three touchdowns and 24.1 DraftKings points back in Week 6.
The projections love his upside in this rematch, and the Niners can move into a tie with the Cardinals atop the division with a win this week while Arizona is idle.
Top Value: Bo Nix vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Nix has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel at QB this week and the fifth-highest on DraftKings using the three-way aggregate projection. He and the Broncos came just a blocked field goal from knocking off the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, and they’ll look to stay in the middle of the playoff hunt with this home game against the Falcons.
Throughout his rookie season, Nix has impressed, averaging 17.3 DraftKings points per game on the year and 20.6 DraftKings points per game over his last six games. In that stretch, he has an impressive 66.1% completion rate while averaging 7.0 yards per attempt to go with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. He also has two rushing scores and two games with over 60 rushing yards as well.
The Oregon product seems to enjoy the rarified air in Denver. He has over 21 DraftKings points in each of his last three home games, including a season-high 29.76 DraftKings points in Week 8 vs. the Panthers in his most recent home contest.
Nix will face another NFC South opponent this week, and the Falcons rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. Opposing QBs have posted the eighth-most fantasy points per game in the NFL.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara vs. Cleveland Browns – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Kamara has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs and the highest ceiling projection in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s an expensive play to build around but has been very solid all season long as the focus of the Saints’ offense.
He’s one of the few true workhorse running backs in the NFL and is usually very involved as a pass catcher, especially with Derek Carr at QB. He has at least five catches in seven straight games coming into this home game against the Browns. Even though he hasn’t found the end zone, he has put up over 15 DraftKings points in three straight weeks.
He also has produced over 100 yards rushing plus receiving in every game started by Derek Carr except for one against the Chiefs. Last week, he finished with 55 rushing yards and 54 receiving yards but could have had a much better week if he hadn’t dropped a pass that almost certainly would have resulted in a long touchdown.
While the Browns have a solid offense, opposing running backs have scored three touchdowns in the last two weeks against Cleveland, and they are averaging 86.3 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards per contest.
With multiple playmakers sidelined, Kamara should get plenty of volume and bring a very high ceiling in Week 11.
Top Value: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Los Angeles Rams – $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
It’s tricky to find bargains at running back at this point in the season since most options getting work are priced up by this point. The one exception this week is Audric Estime, who seems to have seized the lead in Denver as they host the Falcons. However, I like the value better in paying up for Stevenson, who has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all options under $7,000 on DraftKings and the second-highest under $8,000 on FanDuel, behind only Chase Brown, who is included on FanDuel’s slate in the Sunday Night Football matchup.
Stevenson had back-to-back big games against the Jets and Titans, exceeding salary-based expectations by over 10 DraftKings points in each of those contests. Last week against the Bears that productive run came to an end since he failed to find the end zone. However, he still had 74 yards on 20 carries in a tough road matchup.
His role as a receiver has been sporadic, but he did have five catches and a touchdown two weeks ago against the Titans. If the Patriots play from ahead, he gets heavy rushing volume, but if they go pass-heavy, he stays involved enough to still have a high floor and high ceiling.
Opposing running backs have been held in check by the Rams over the past few weeks, but they are on a short week coming east to face the Patriots in the early window. Stevenson’s volume makes him a good value this week with the potential to produce points in multiple game scripts.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua at New England Patriots – $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Nacua has the second-highest ceiling projection of all receivers on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel since Ja’Marr Chase takes the top spot from the Sunday Night Football game. The other receiver ranked ahead of Nacua is Justin Jefferson, who has a tough road matchup against the Titans. Rather than paying all the way up for him, Nacua makes a lot of sense at significant savings.
After missing Week 2 through Week 7 with knee issues, Nacua made a magnificent return in Week 8 with 21.1 fantasy points vs. the Vikings. He had a down game in Seattle, where he was ejected, but bounced back by hauling in 9-of-14 targets for 98 yards on Monday Night Football vs. the Dolphins.
Nacua has 23 total targets in his two complete games and has averaged 102 receiving yards and 20.0 DraftKings points in those two contests. He should get plenty of attention from Matthew Stafford again this week vs. the Patriots.
The Patriots rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, including 24th against number-one receivers and 28th versus number-two receivers. Whichever way you rank Nacua and Cooper Kupp, both have strong matchups this week, and the aggregate projections give a slight edge to Nacua, who is also cheaper on both sites.
Top Value: Cedric Tillman at New Orleans Saints – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
I love the value of stacking Jauan Jennings with Purdy, as I pointed out in my early look on Wednesday, but I also love the potential that Tillman brings as the Browns come back from their bye week and visit Jameis Winston’s former team in New Orleans.
Tillman has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers in the aggregate projections on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s priced up more, but he still has a 76% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Before the Browns’ bye week, they traded top receiver Amari Cooper to the Bills, which opened up a huge opportunity for Tillman to step up. Since then, he exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games, producing over 18 DraftKings points in each of those three games. He has at least nine targets in each of those games and is averaging 7.0 catches for 85.0 yards per contest. He scored the only Cleveland touchdown in their most recent game against the Chargers and should have gotten more reps with Winston throughout the team’s bye week.
Tillman gets a good matchup vs. the Saints’ secondary that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and dealt away Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline.
If you have to go even cheaper, Devaughn Vele and Kayshon Boutte are both excellent values under $4,000 on DraftKings. On FanDuel, value is a little trickier to find, but Keenan Allen and Romeo Doubs both have nice Projected Plus/Minus. Boutte has the best Projected Plus/Minus of all WRs under $5,000 on FanDuel.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Buffalo Bills – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Kelce has the highest ceiling projection at tight end in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel as well. He’s the most expensive play on both sites but worth considering since he seems to have re-found his elite form.
After a slow start, Kelce has posted three straight games with double-digit targets and 20+ DraftKings points. He has two touchdowns and a 100-yard performance over that span.
So far this season Buffalo’s defense has been slightly above the league average vs. tight ends. However, that’s mostly due to giving up just one TE touchdown since they have given up 55 receptions, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL. Even if he’s held out of the end zone, he should be a top option this week with so much volume.
Top Value: Hunter Henry vs. Los Angeles Rams – $3,900 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Henry has been involved in the Patriots’ offense with Drake Maye at QB, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in the aggregate projections on DraftKings. He’s also in the top five on FanDuel, where he matches the second-most Pro Trends at the position.
Against the Rams, Henry will be looking to bounce back from a one-catch game against the Bears in Week 10. He did still have four targets, including one in the red zone, but finished with his lowest fantasy point total of the year. Before that, he had posted an average of 5.8 catches for 58.3 receiving yards per game with Maye under center.
Opposing tight ends have scored four touchdowns against the Rams and are averaging 58.3 receiving yards per contest, so it should be a matchup where Henry can find some success and bounce back from last week’s disappointing total.
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