UFC

UFC 309 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Jones vs. Miocic, More Saturday Fights

The UFC’s annual trip to Madison Square Gardens is here, with New York State’s favorite champion, Jon Jones, defending his belt against Stipe Miocic in the main event.

The 13-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card airing on PPV at 10:00 p.m.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Jon Jones ($9,500) vs. Stipe Miocic ($6,700)

Much has been made about this fight, ostensibly pairing the greatest light heavyweight MMA fighter of all time against the UFC’s best heavyweight champion.

That’s the rosy picture of this bout, which was originally scheduled for last year’s New York City PPV card. The other view is that a still near-his-prime Jon Jones is taking on a 42-year-old fireman whose last fight was more than three years ago, and an ugly knockout loss at that.

The market seems to agree with the latter picture of the bout, with Jones going off as a -600 or so favorite. He’s also -250 to end things inside the distance. The real question is how fast he can finish Stipe Miocic, as this slate features four fighters priced at $9,500 or higher.

Whoever gets the quicker wins will likely separate from the crowd, and playing more than two of them is fairly difficult. I’ve got Jones as third on my list for the best options in that price range, which means I won’t have a ton of him in GPPs.

This isn’t a fight I’m looking to stack for cash games, though I’ll likely prioritize Jones over the more expensive heavy favorites. His price is part of it, but getting an extra two rounds to work with also theoretically helps his floor. He could score higher in a decision win than the three-round fighters on the card.

Co–Main Event

Charles Oliveira ($9,000) vs. Michael Chandler ($7,200)

The co-main event of UFC 309 is a rematch three years in the making. In the first pairing between these lightweights, Charles Oliveira defended his lightweight title against Michael Chandler via second-round knockout, netting him 109 DraftKings points.

Since then, Oliveira is 3-2 with three finishes, losing only to the two best lightweights in the world. Those fighters (current champ Islam Makhachev and next challenger Arman Tsarukyan) both have dominant wrestling and top game, something that Chandler doesn’t really bring to the table.

Chandler has fought just three times since losing to “Do Bronx” with his only win coming against a completely washed Tony Ferguson. To his credit, he scored in the 40s in both losses, with 23 points in the loss to Oliveira.

Given the salary dynamics of the slate, another score in the low 20s might be enough for cash games. On the Oliveira side, he has similar stoppage odds as the four super expensive options on the slate. That makes this a solid stacking option for cash games, though I’d be fine just rostering Oliveira and trying to save salary elsewhere.

For GPPs, Oliveira is one of my favorite plays on the slate, while I’ll also have a sprinkle of Chandler in my portfolio. The fight is more than -1000 to end inside the distance, so it’s worth prioritizing.

The Easy Chalk

Bo Nickal ($9,800)

Picking which of the four high-priced fighters as the “easy chalk” is a challenge this week. Including Jones, they’re all north of -600 odds, with Bo Nickal leading the way at -1350. Every fight for the multiple-time national champion wrestler seems to challenge for the UFC record for longest moneyline odds.

He’s also the only one of the group — which includes David Onama ($9,700) and Mauricio Ruffy ($9,600) — favored to end his fight in the first round. That, plus the massive takedown upside, sets him apart from the group.

He’s taking on Paul Craig ($6,400), a one-dimensional submission artist who’s been finished in each of his last two fights. Craig will likely be willing to engage on the ground with Nickal, which probably leads to his undoing.

Onama is currently a -900 favorite against last-minute replacement Roberto Romero ($6,500). It’s the debut for Romero, who carries a one-fight winning “streak” into this booking. He’s not exactly a top prospect, with the late call-up making the situation even tougher. Onama has finished (and 100+ DraftKings scores) in three of four UFC wins.

Ruffy is the next in the seemingly endless line of “Fighting Nerds” taking over their respective UFC divisions. He picked up a third-round stoppage as a moderate underdog on the Contender Series in 2023, before knocking out Jamie Mullarkey in the first round in his UFC debut. He’s my least confident of the fighters in his price range since his opponent James Llontop ($6,600) is also a talented striker — but Ruffy is -900 for a reason.

Most of my lineups will feature two of the top four fighters on the slate, with slightly more exposure to Jones and Nickal. Fading any of them doesn’t necessitate playing their opponent, though. “Failure” from any fighter in this group might mean a lower-scoring win, as the optimal build is more likely to come down to which of them scores the highest, than which of them gets upset.

The Upside Play

Bassil Hafez ($7,400)

I wanted to highlight a cheaper fighter for the upside play section, since we’ll have to find salary somewhere. There are a few options I like, but factoring in price, my favorite is Umar Hafez.

Hafez made his debut on short notice, taking on now top-five welterweight Jack Della Maddalena. JDM had four first-round knockouts in four UFC fights before facing Hafez — who took him to a close split decision that Hafez would’ve won had his cardio held up.

Then Hafez took on UFC journeyman Mickey Gall ($8,300), beating him in a fairly lackluster decision that still netted him 86 DraftKings points on the strength of three takedowns. Hafez is the rare fighter whose stock went up in a loss but down in a win.

This time he draws Ange Loosa ($8,800), who’s a solid midpoint between Gall and Maddalena. Loosa is more of a striker, and he’s been taken down thrice in two UFC bouts (including two against Val Woodburn, who also dropped Loosa).

Hafez’s high-level grappling gives him a ton of upside here, and he could score well enough in a loss to make the optimal if the heavy favorites all hold serve. I’ll have plenty of him in GPPs, and he’s in the cash conversation as well.

The Value Play

Eduarda Moura ($7,500)

The obvious cash game salary saver this week is Eduarda Moura, who’s a narrow +120 underdog in the fight likeliest to go to a decision on the slate.

I’m high on Moura against Veronica Hardy ($8,700), as stylistically this one should suit Moura’s strengths. She’s the better grappler and finisher of the pair. She landed five takedowns in a split decision loss to Denise Gomes in her last fight, which followed stoppage victories on the Contender Series and in her debut.

Hardy’s last three fights have all been decision wins, including one via split decision. The worst-case scenario for Moura is Hardy wins a fairly lackluster striking match. Hardy has 0 knockdowns scored in her eight UFC appearances.

That gives Moura a rock-solid floor, and any win would obviously be massive at her price tag.

The Contrarian Choice

Ramiz Brahimaj ($7,900)

The fact that Ramiz Brahimaj has identical +120 odds as Moura but comes in at $400 cheaper should see him go overlooked on this slate. It’s hard to justify the extra salary, when that $400 could get you an extra one of the slate’s top fighters.

However, I think he should be the favorite in his matchup against Mickey Gall. Gall is 7-6 as a pro and 6-6 in the UFC, with two of those wins coming in joke fights against pro wrestler CM Punk and photographer Mike Jackson (who was, like Gall, originally brought in as a potential opponent for Punk. It was a strange time).

Gall has just one win in the last five years, and it came against Jordan Williams who went 0-3 in the UFC. He’s either been knocked down or taken down at least three times in the four losses in that span.

Brahimaj is an excellent grappler who looked a bit off in his return from neck surgery earlier this year. I’m betting he’s closer to 100% this time around, and should be able to either finish Gall or rack up plenty of takedowns and control time.

I also like the spot for Jonathan Martinez ($7,800) in a similar price range. These two could possibly be the cheapest fighters to pull off wins on the card. They’ll also both come in at sub-20% ownership due to their salaries.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Marcin Tybura ($8,200) vs. Jhonata Diniz ($8,000)

The other heavyweight fight on the card is a fun one. It features converted kickboxer Jhonata Diniz taking on UFC veteran Marcin Tybura, who’s primarily a grappler.

Diniz was originally slated to take on Derrick Lewis, but the fight got canceled due to a Lewis illness. Tybura is stepping in on short notice, but Diniz is taking on a drastically different fighter than he’d been training for.

The binary nature of this fight means that it should settle fairly quickly. Diniz has a huge edge on the feet, with Tybura a far better grappler. It’s got roughly -300 odds to end inside the distance, the best of any three-round fight not involving Bo Nickal.

The betting market has shifted towards Tybura, who’s too cheap for his now -148 price tag. However, I’ll be shifting a bit more towards Diniz for ownership reasons. His 70% takedown defense is also solid. Plus, he’s been able to survive trips to the ground early in his UFC career, so a Tybura takedown isn’t a death sentence.

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The UFC’s annual trip to Madison Square Gardens is here, with New York State’s favorite champion, Jon Jones, defending his belt against Stipe Miocic in the main event.

The 13-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card airing on PPV at 10:00 p.m.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Jon Jones ($9,500) vs. Stipe Miocic ($6,700)

Much has been made about this fight, ostensibly pairing the greatest light heavyweight MMA fighter of all time against the UFC’s best heavyweight champion.

That’s the rosy picture of this bout, which was originally scheduled for last year’s New York City PPV card. The other view is that a still near-his-prime Jon Jones is taking on a 42-year-old fireman whose last fight was more than three years ago, and an ugly knockout loss at that.

The market seems to agree with the latter picture of the bout, with Jones going off as a -600 or so favorite. He’s also -250 to end things inside the distance. The real question is how fast he can finish Stipe Miocic, as this slate features four fighters priced at $9,500 or higher.

Whoever gets the quicker wins will likely separate from the crowd, and playing more than two of them is fairly difficult. I’ve got Jones as third on my list for the best options in that price range, which means I won’t have a ton of him in GPPs.

This isn’t a fight I’m looking to stack for cash games, though I’ll likely prioritize Jones over the more expensive heavy favorites. His price is part of it, but getting an extra two rounds to work with also theoretically helps his floor. He could score higher in a decision win than the three-round fighters on the card.

Co–Main Event

Charles Oliveira ($9,000) vs. Michael Chandler ($7,200)

The co-main event of UFC 309 is a rematch three years in the making. In the first pairing between these lightweights, Charles Oliveira defended his lightweight title against Michael Chandler via second-round knockout, netting him 109 DraftKings points.

Since then, Oliveira is 3-2 with three finishes, losing only to the two best lightweights in the world. Those fighters (current champ Islam Makhachev and next challenger Arman Tsarukyan) both have dominant wrestling and top game, something that Chandler doesn’t really bring to the table.

Chandler has fought just three times since losing to “Do Bronx” with his only win coming against a completely washed Tony Ferguson. To his credit, he scored in the 40s in both losses, with 23 points in the loss to Oliveira.

Given the salary dynamics of the slate, another score in the low 20s might be enough for cash games. On the Oliveira side, he has similar stoppage odds as the four super expensive options on the slate. That makes this a solid stacking option for cash games, though I’d be fine just rostering Oliveira and trying to save salary elsewhere.

For GPPs, Oliveira is one of my favorite plays on the slate, while I’ll also have a sprinkle of Chandler in my portfolio. The fight is more than -1000 to end inside the distance, so it’s worth prioritizing.

The Easy Chalk

Bo Nickal ($9,800)

Picking which of the four high-priced fighters as the “easy chalk” is a challenge this week. Including Jones, they’re all north of -600 odds, with Bo Nickal leading the way at -1350. Every fight for the multiple-time national champion wrestler seems to challenge for the UFC record for longest moneyline odds.

He’s also the only one of the group — which includes David Onama ($9,700) and Mauricio Ruffy ($9,600) — favored to end his fight in the first round. That, plus the massive takedown upside, sets him apart from the group.

He’s taking on Paul Craig ($6,400), a one-dimensional submission artist who’s been finished in each of his last two fights. Craig will likely be willing to engage on the ground with Nickal, which probably leads to his undoing.

Onama is currently a -900 favorite against last-minute replacement Roberto Romero ($6,500). It’s the debut for Romero, who carries a one-fight winning “streak” into this booking. He’s not exactly a top prospect, with the late call-up making the situation even tougher. Onama has finished (and 100+ DraftKings scores) in three of four UFC wins.

Ruffy is the next in the seemingly endless line of “Fighting Nerds” taking over their respective UFC divisions. He picked up a third-round stoppage as a moderate underdog on the Contender Series in 2023, before knocking out Jamie Mullarkey in the first round in his UFC debut. He’s my least confident of the fighters in his price range since his opponent James Llontop ($6,600) is also a talented striker — but Ruffy is -900 for a reason.

Most of my lineups will feature two of the top four fighters on the slate, with slightly more exposure to Jones and Nickal. Fading any of them doesn’t necessitate playing their opponent, though. “Failure” from any fighter in this group might mean a lower-scoring win, as the optimal build is more likely to come down to which of them scores the highest, than which of them gets upset.

The Upside Play

Bassil Hafez ($7,400)

I wanted to highlight a cheaper fighter for the upside play section, since we’ll have to find salary somewhere. There are a few options I like, but factoring in price, my favorite is Umar Hafez.

Hafez made his debut on short notice, taking on now top-five welterweight Jack Della Maddalena. JDM had four first-round knockouts in four UFC fights before facing Hafez — who took him to a close split decision that Hafez would’ve won had his cardio held up.

Then Hafez took on UFC journeyman Mickey Gall ($8,300), beating him in a fairly lackluster decision that still netted him 86 DraftKings points on the strength of three takedowns. Hafez is the rare fighter whose stock went up in a loss but down in a win.

This time he draws Ange Loosa ($8,800), who’s a solid midpoint between Gall and Maddalena. Loosa is more of a striker, and he’s been taken down thrice in two UFC bouts (including two against Val Woodburn, who also dropped Loosa).

Hafez’s high-level grappling gives him a ton of upside here, and he could score well enough in a loss to make the optimal if the heavy favorites all hold serve. I’ll have plenty of him in GPPs, and he’s in the cash conversation as well.

The Value Play

Eduarda Moura ($7,500)

The obvious cash game salary saver this week is Eduarda Moura, who’s a narrow +120 underdog in the fight likeliest to go to a decision on the slate.

I’m high on Moura against Veronica Hardy ($8,700), as stylistically this one should suit Moura’s strengths. She’s the better grappler and finisher of the pair. She landed five takedowns in a split decision loss to Denise Gomes in her last fight, which followed stoppage victories on the Contender Series and in her debut.

Hardy’s last three fights have all been decision wins, including one via split decision. The worst-case scenario for Moura is Hardy wins a fairly lackluster striking match. Hardy has 0 knockdowns scored in her eight UFC appearances.

That gives Moura a rock-solid floor, and any win would obviously be massive at her price tag.

The Contrarian Choice

Ramiz Brahimaj ($7,900)

The fact that Ramiz Brahimaj has identical +120 odds as Moura but comes in at $400 cheaper should see him go overlooked on this slate. It’s hard to justify the extra salary, when that $400 could get you an extra one of the slate’s top fighters.

However, I think he should be the favorite in his matchup against Mickey Gall. Gall is 7-6 as a pro and 6-6 in the UFC, with two of those wins coming in joke fights against pro wrestler CM Punk and photographer Mike Jackson (who was, like Gall, originally brought in as a potential opponent for Punk. It was a strange time).

Gall has just one win in the last five years, and it came against Jordan Williams who went 0-3 in the UFC. He’s either been knocked down or taken down at least three times in the four losses in that span.

Brahimaj is an excellent grappler who looked a bit off in his return from neck surgery earlier this year. I’m betting he’s closer to 100% this time around, and should be able to either finish Gall or rack up plenty of takedowns and control time.

I also like the spot for Jonathan Martinez ($7,800) in a similar price range. These two could possibly be the cheapest fighters to pull off wins on the card. They’ll also both come in at sub-20% ownership due to their salaries.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Marcin Tybura ($8,200) vs. Jhonata Diniz ($8,000)

The other heavyweight fight on the card is a fun one. It features converted kickboxer Jhonata Diniz taking on UFC veteran Marcin Tybura, who’s primarily a grappler.

Diniz was originally slated to take on Derrick Lewis, but the fight got canceled due to a Lewis illness. Tybura is stepping in on short notice, but Diniz is taking on a drastically different fighter than he’d been training for.

The binary nature of this fight means that it should settle fairly quickly. Diniz has a huge edge on the feet, with Tybura a far better grappler. It’s got roughly -300 odds to end inside the distance, the best of any three-round fight not involving Bo Nickal.

The betting market has shifted towards Tybura, who’s too cheap for his now -148 price tag. However, I’ll be shifting a bit more towards Diniz for ownership reasons. His 70% takedown defense is also solid. Plus, he’s been able to survive trips to the ground early in his UFC career, so a Tybura takedown isn’t a death sentence.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 289 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nunes vs. Aldana, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 75 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Vettori vs. Cannonier, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 93 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Perez vs. Taira, More Saturday Fights UFC Saudi Arabia DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Whittaker vs. Aliskerov, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.