Week 11 delivers an 11-game slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 11.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Russell Wilson ($5,900) + George Pickens ($7,000) + Zay Flowers ($6,900)
Russell Wilson and George Pickens have shown great chemistry as a duo, and this pairing is an elite stack this Sunday vs. the Ravens. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (48 points), and Baltimore is the ultimate pass funnel defense, as their league-best rush defense forces offenses to attack their vulnerable secondary heavily. For the season, the Ravens are giving up the fourth-most yards per pass (7.4) and the fewest yards per rush (3.4). Baltimore is also allowing the most passing yards (3,144) and most passing touchdowns (21) to quarterbacks.
Since taking over as the Steelers’ starter in Week 7, Wilson has revitalized this offense’s passing attack. The former Super Bowl champion ranks third in yards per pass (8.7), and he has thrown for six touchdowns and only one pick in his three starts. Wilson is also averaging 3.3 carries per game and has seen three red-zone rushes in three games. The veteran impressively ranks third among quarterbacks in DraftKings points per dropback this season (0.61), and Wilson should have his best showing in a Steelers uniform in this dream matchup vs. the Ravens, possibly near 30 DraftKings points.
As expected, Pickens has been excellent with a more efficient passer in Wilson under center. In these last three games with the veteran starting, Pickens has produced 19 DraftKings PPG. Overall, the receiver is producing 0.34 DraftKings points per snap with Wilson, which is a huge upgrade from the 0.22 Pickens averaged with Justin Fields as his quarterback.
With Wilson, Pickens has led the Steelers with a 26.6% target share, including five red-zone targets and seven targets over 20 yards in only three games. The Ravens are giving up the most receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season (16), and this is a perfect spot for Pickens to explode. Just last week, Ja’Marr Chase destroyed Baltimore for a jaw-dropping 11/264/3 receiving line and 58.4 DraftKings points. Obviously, we can’t expect this type of output from Pickens, but a performance over 30 DraftKings points is absolutely a possibility for the prolific receiver.
Zay Flowers makes the most sense as a bring-back for Steelers stacks. The receiver is leading the Ravens with a 26.4% target share this season, including 13 targets over 20 yards and five red-zone targets. The Steelers are giving up the 13th-fewest yards per pass (6.4), but as we saw two weeks ago, when Flowers erupted for a season-high 32.7 DraftKings points against a Broncos’ defense that is limiting their opponents to the fourth-fewest yards per pass (5.8), the receiver has the ability to go off against any defense with Lamar Jackson as his quarterback. Plus, while Flowers is coming off a 7.4 DraftKings point outing vs. the Bengals, the receiver has a knack for rebounding in a big way after quiet outings. For the last five times Flowers has scored single-digit DraftKings points, he has bounced back with over 20 DraftKings points in his next game four times.
With all three of Wilson, Pickens, and Flowers slated to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings, this three-man game stack should be rostered by a low percentage of DFS players this weekend.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Kareem Hunt ($6,700)
Isiah Pacheco (leg) is nearing a return, but Chiefs’ HC Andy Reid told the media Wednesday that Pacheco is unlikely to be activated off IR before Sunday’s game vs. the Bills. This leaves Kareem Hunt in a featured role for this prime matchup. Buffalo is giving up the third-most yards per rush this season (4.9), and since reuniting with Kansas City in Week 4, Hunt has averaged 18.5 carries per game – which is 81% of the Chiefs’ running back carries – while logging 58.8% of the snaps. In the redzone, Hunt has garnered 28 carries in his six games this season, which is tied with Derrick Henry for the most in the NFL since Week 4. As a receiver, Hunt has run a route on 41% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has obtained a target on 14% of those routes, including seven red-zone targets.
Hunt has supplied 17.4 DraftKings PPG with this workhorse role, and he has a ceiling over 20 DraftKings points in this 46-point total vs. Buffalo, which ranks fourth on the slate. In addition to being too cheap for his elite workload and ceiling, Hunt is expected to be a forgotten man with most gravitating towards more lucrative options at running back. According to our projections, Hunt is slated to be only around 2% owned on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Calvin Ridley ($6,200)
Calvin Ridley has been a stud since DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. In Ridley’s first three games in Tennessee without Hopkins, Ridley has produced 21.4 DraftKings PPG with an incredible 36.4% target share, despite facing three tough matchups in the Lions, Patriots, and Chargers during this stretch. Notably, Ridley has handled the highest target rate of any receiver in the NFL over the last three weeks, and during this time, Ja’Marr Chase is the only wideout in the league to score more DraftKings points than Ridley.
The 29-year-old has seen five red-zone targets and three targets over 20 yards in these past three games, and Ridley is generating 0.34 DraftKings points per snap with Hopkins out of town. For some perspective on how compelling of a number that is, if this was Ridley’s average for the season, he would rank 10th among receivers, ahead of the likes of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, just to name a few.
For this Sunday, Ridley is going against a Vikings defense that uses zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Seven of his 11 touchdowns over the last two seasons have come against zone, and the Titans being six-point underdogs for this tilt means they should be forced to air it out. This is arguably the best matchup Ridley has seen since Tennessee traded Hopkins, and Ridley not only is criminally underpriced relative to his upside, the receiver is expected to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings according to our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Tucker Kraft ($4,400)
Tucker Kraft is an elite sleeper pick this week with our projections forecasting him to be only 1% owned on DraftKings. The tight end is leading the Packers in routes this season, and he has seen a solid 14% of Jordan Love’s targets. In the seven games the quarterback has started for Green Bay this season, Kraft has racked up 14 redzone targets. The tight end has recorded at least 16 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts, and up next is a matchup with the struggling Bears. After a strong start to their season, Chicago’s defense has dwindled, allowing the seventh-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.6). Additionally, the Bears have used zone coverage at the sixth-highest clip this season, making this a gorgeous spot for Kraft.
This season, 87% of his receiving yards, 22 of his 28 catches, and all four of his touchdowns have come against zone coverage. Of all the players in the NFL that have seen at least 20 targets this season, Kraft is the third-highest rated skill player against zone coverage on NFL Next Gen Stats. The tight end should thrive in this spot and is a spectacular contrarian play at this low salary.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
