Wednesday’s main slate on DraftKings includes the first eight games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,600
Gilgeous-Alexander exploded for 77.75 DraftKings points in Monday’s win over the Clippers, and the primary reason for his success was that Chet Holmgren (hip) was inactive for the first time during his career. With the big man off the floor over the last two seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring an elite 1.7 DraftKings PPM, due to his usage and assist rates increasing 6.5 and 5.5 percentage points, respectively, according to the On/Off Tool.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 61.6 DraftKings points per 36 minutes without Holmgren, and on the menu for tonight is a terrific matchup vs. the Pelicans, who rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency and will be without a slew of key players. The Thunder boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate (117.25 points), and Gilgeous-Alexander should exceed 60 DraftKings points in this spot, barring a massive blowout.
Top Value: Jaylen Nowell at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,400
Opposite Gilgeous-Alexander, Nowell is a great play from the depleted Pelicans. With CJ McCollum (adductor), Dejounte Murray (hand), Jordan Hawkins (back), and Jose Alvarado (hamstring) all out, Nowell is the next man up and should start at point guard for New Orleans. Even if the veteran still comes off the bench, Nowell should see plenty of work with his team so short on ball handlers.
Our ShotQuality projections are slating Nowell for 29 minutes, giving him plenty of time to exceed his cheap salary. The guard is amassing 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season with a 22.8% usage rate and a 31.8% assist rate, and Nowell has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in three of the last five games in which he has logged at least 20 minutes. In our ShotQuality projections, Nowell is the No. 1 value on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cam Thomas vs. Boston Celtics – $7,000
The Nets have been one of the biggest surprises this season, and Thomas has been excellent as the club’s top option, averaging 36.2 DraftKings PPG with a team-high 32% usage rate. The guard has recorded at least 36 DraftKings points in half of his starts this season, including a 39.25 DraftKings point effort against the same Celtics team he will face tonight. This also wasn’t an anomaly, as Thomas has scored 39 DraftKings points or more in three of his four matchups with Boston in the last two seasons.
Thomas clearly looks forward to taking on the division rival, and the guard has a ceiling of over 40 DraftKings points with the Celtics playing their second game in two nights.
Top Value: Malik Beasley at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,200
Beasley has been a great spark off the bench for the Pistons as of late, scoring 26.5, 24.5, and 31.3 DraftKings points in his last three games. That latter finish marked a season-high for the veteran, and he also received a season-high 35 minutes in that tilt. This outing came last night, and Beasley’s uptick in production and playing time was a result of Tim Hardaway Jr. (head) getting hurt in the third quarter and only logging 18.5 minutes total.
The veteran had to be wheelchaired to the locker room, and while the Pistons’ injury report has yet to be released, it is very likely Hardaway Jr. is out tonight. Beasley barely left the floor Tuesday after Hardaway Jr. got hurt, and the former should see huge minutes tonight vs. this Bucks team that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency and is also on the second leg of a back-to-back. Additionally, let’s not forget that Milwaukee is Beasley’s former team. The wing should have some extra motivation tonight and cruise past 5x value at this cheap salary.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,800
Despite this brutal matchup vs. the Thunder and their league-best defense, Ingram warrants consideration as a GPP target tonight, as the tough matchup will depress his ownership. On top of McCollum, Murray, Hawkins, and Alvarado being out tonight, Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Herbert Jones (shoulder) also remain sidelined. The Pelicans have no choice but to let Ingram run the show, and he has the potential for a massive fantasy score if New Orleans can keep up with the Thunder.
In the 782 minutes Ingram has played with Williamson and McCollum off the floor over the last two seasons, Ingram’s usage has jumped 6.9 percentage points to 35.3%, and he has produced 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Ingram has posted at least 44 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts and is a gamble worth taking in large tournaments.
Top Value: OG Anunoby vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,700
After a quiet start to the season, Anunoby has really found his groove, scoring 37.7 DraftKings PPG in his last six starts. This season, Anunoby is shooting a career-best 42% from beyond the arc, and he is averaging just over two defensive stats per game.
With the Bulls in town tonight, who rank second in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, Anunoby’s impressive run should continue, and he is the best value at the small forward position.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,500
Wagner has been awesome with Paolo Banchero (oblique) sidelined, generating 47.3 DraftKings PPG in his last four starts. With Banchero off the floor this season, Wagner is producing 1.3 DraftKings PPM, mostly thanks to a 4.7 percentage point spike in his assist rate.
Ranking ninth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, the Pacers are an elite matchup. Exactly a week ago, Wagner posted 46.5 DraftKings points against this Indiana squad. The wing has similar upside tonight and is slightly underpriced for his ceiling.
Top Value: Tari Eason vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,000
Eason is having a strong season as the Rockets’ sixth man, amassing 26.1 DraftKings PPG. He is averaging 3.0 defensive stats per game, and his expertise on the defensive end has made him a favorite of the Rockets’ coaching staff, so much so that sometimes Eason closes games at center over Alperen Sengun.
The Clippers are surrendering the second-most steals this season, and Eason has a ceiling of over 30 DraftKings points in this spot. Plus, as a bench player, he will almost certainly come with low ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Washington Wizards – $10,900
This is an eruption spot for Wembanyama. The big man is on the heels of a season-best 71.5 DraftKings point showing vs. the Kings, and now the Wizards are in town, who rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. Additionally, Washington is giving up the most rebounds and the seventh-most points in the paint this season. This is a perfect spot for Wembanyama to feast, and the Spurs remain without Jeremy Sochan (thumb), which is another boost for Wembanyama. With Sochan off the court this season, all of Wembanyama’s rates have increased, and he has supplied 1.6 DraftKings PPM.
San Antonio boasts a season-high implied team total of 117 points, and they will be at home, where Wembanyama has been far more productive so far during his career. The center is averaging nearly five more DraftKings PPG on his home floor compared to when on the road. The last time Wembanyama competed on his home floor behind an implied team total of at least 115 points, he destroyed the Pacers for 71.5 DraftKings points, according to the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Mortiz Wagner vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,600
On top of Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. (foot) is still sidelined for the Magic, keeping Wagner in an expanded role. In the six games both Banchero and Carter Jr. have been inactive for this season, Wagner is averaging 24.7 DraftKings points in 21.3 minutes per game. In addition to the Pacers’ weak defense and fast pace, they are allowing the fourth-most points in the paint this season, which bodes well for a center like Wagner.
His ceiling is over 30 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections, and Wagner naturally shouldn’t be popular as a bench player.
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