With four teams on a bye this week and three primetime matchups, the NFL has 11 games on Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings. Eight of those 11 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with just three games in the later window. The big game of the afternoon is the undefeated Chiefs rolling into Buffalo to face the Bills, but there are also some very interesting divisional matchups and a fun inter-conference showdown between the Falcons and Broncos in Denver.
The highest over/under on Sunday’s slate is from the Seahawks visiting the 49ers in the late wave, but the Lions have the highest implied team total as they host the Jaguars. Other teams with big totals to target include the Eagles, Dolphins, and Ravens. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 11. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Brock Purdy ($6,600) San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (49.5 total)
Purdy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks this week, using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Raybon, and THE BLITZ. The 49ers’ QB claims the top spot in THE BLITZ projections while ranking second in Koerner’s and Raybon’s.
He got Christian McCaffrey back in the backfield last week and threw two touchdown passes on his way to a season-high 353 passing yards and 26.82 DraftKings points. He has over 20 DraftKings points in four straight weeks and over 15 DraftKings points in eight straight weeks, even though he has been without several of his top pass-catchers. Purdy also rushed for three touchdowns in his last three games to boost his ceiling even higher.
This week, he gets a slightly favorable matchup with the Seahawks. In Seattle back in Week 6, he threw three touchdowns against this same defense and finished with 24.1 fantasy points.
He has the fifth-highest salary of the QBs on the main slate this week, but since he has the second-highest ceiling projection in the aggregate projections, he sets up to be a great value.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Jauan Jennings ($5,300) San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (49.5 total)
You can stack up San Francisco options and double your value by also building around Jennings, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers in the aggregate this week. He edges out Cedric Tillman at this same salary, and Tillman is another strong value that I really like and will definitely want a piece of this week.
Jennings memorably broke through with 49.5 DraftKings points back in Week 3 but has been fairly quiet since then. Part of that was due to a hip injury that sidelined him for two games, and part of that was because Deebo Samuel Sr. ($6,800) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) were ahead of him on the depth chart. With Aiyuk now out for the season, Jennings should have more targets to work with the rest of the way.
He looked strong in his return to action last week, leading the team with 93 receiving yards while hauling in seven of his 11 targets. The veteran slot receiver is extremely reliable and one of Purdy’s top targets, especially on important plays.
Jennings gets a great matchup against the Seahawks this week. Opposing receivers have the seventh-most DraftKings points per game against the Seahawks, and Purdy looked good against them a few weeks ago. Jennings originally got hurt in that game, and he’ll be out to get some revenge in this rematch.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Alvin Kamara ($8,200) New Orleans Saints (-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (44.5 total)
Finding a cheap RB is hard at this point in the season, but some of the top options can bring value in good matchups. Remember, “value” can be any player at any price who over-performs based on a per-dollar basis. Obviously, a RB with a salary over $8,000 will have to do much more to return value than a cheaper option, but Kamara should be up to the task and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in the aggregate projections.
You could even make a case that Christian McCaffrey is a value, but Kamara is a safer play since he’s more established in his workhorse role.
Kamara has produced over 15 fantasy points in three straight weeks and had over 100 yards rushing plus receiving in every game started by Derek Carr except for one against the Chiefs.
He could have had a much bigger week in Week 10, but he dropped a pass that almost certainly would have resulted in a long touchdown. He didn’t find the end zone but did catch all the rest of his targets and racked up 54 receiving yards. With Chris Olave (concussion), Kendre Miller (hamstring) on IR, and Jamaal Williams (groin) suffering a setback, Kamara is one of the few Saints’ playmakers left.
With plenty of volume coming his way, AK should be able to put together a strong game against the Browns. Opposing running backs have scored three touchdowns in the last two weeks against Cleveland and are averaging 86.3 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards per contest.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Hunter Henry ($3,900) New England Patriots (+4.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (44.5 total)
The Patriots knocked off the Bears last week and have been much more competitive since making the move to Drake Maye at QB. Henry’s connection has also been strong with the rookie QB, and even after a down game in Chicago, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in the aggregate projections.
Henry still had four targets last week, including one in the red zone, but only finished with one catch for 14 yards. In the previous four games since Maye took over, Henry averaged 5.8 catches for 58.3 receiving yards per game.
The Patriots are home underdogs to the Rams, who have to travel east on a short week after a Monday night loss. Opposing tight ends have scored four touchdowns against the Rams and are averaging 58.3 receiving yards per contest.
