Despite their best efforts, the Miami Dolphins have dropped three in a row to fall to 2-6 on the season. While they may be able to take solace in the fact that all three losses came by a combined nine points. Or that their past two defeats came on, basically, the last play of the game, those excuses don’t move the Dolphins any closer to a playoff spot. Miami has to pick up the pieces and get ready for Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have faced their own struggles this season, and need a win to keep pace with the frontrunners in the ultra-competitive NFC West.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1,500 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Dolphins vs. Rams
Tyreek Hill Less 79.5 Receiving Yards
Whether or not Tyreek Hill appears in Week 10’s showdown against the Rams remains to be seen. But even if he does, two things have become apparent. First, he’s not playing at 100%. Second, he’s seen declining usage over the past few weeks. Both of these factors work against him reaching 79.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football.
At the start of the season, we were talking about Hill as a 100-yard receiver every week; however, he hasn’t reached that plateau since a season-opening win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. In the seven weeks since, the five-time All-Pro has accumulated just 316 receiving yards. More concerningly, he’s seen a sharp decline in his target share and effectiveness.
Hill has fallen below seven targets in five of his last seven games, correlating with the decrease in his production. He’s averaging 45.1 yards and 3.9 receptions per game across that sample. Moreover, Hill hasn’t exceeded six receptions in any of those contests, is down to 11.7 yards per reception, and has surpassed 72 receiving yards just once.
Undoubtedly, injuries are a factor in his limited production, and we’re not expecting a miraculous recovery in time for tonight’s inter-conference showdown against the Rams. Keep an eye on his playing status, but if he suits up, expect him to fall short of 79.5 receiving yards.
Jaylen Waddle More 3.5 Receptions
Miami desperately needs someone to step up to replace Hill’s lost output. While they’ve turned to different playmakers throughout the season, we’re forecasting more involvement from Jaylen Waddle on Monday night.
The Dolphins’ second-favorite receiver has been a stabilizing force on offense all season. Waddle has recorded at least four receptions in all but two of his eight games. Further, he’s been one of the most reliable pass-catchers when called upon. This season, the 25-year-old has hauled in 28 of his 38 targets for a solid 73.7% catch rate.
Coming off one of his worst games as a professional, Waddle is a natural progression candidate against the Rams. He pulled down both of his targets in last week’s loss for -4 receiving yards. That’s a significant departure from his usual standard of 3.5 receptions and 38.8 yards per game. If we take another step back, Waddle’s season-long benchmarks are substantially below his career averages of 5.1 receptions and 67.2 yards per game.
Irrespective of defensive involvement, Waddle is due for a meaningful increase in his production. With Hill operating at less than 100%, or potentially not playing at all, we’re predicting that Waddle takes a few big steps forward in LA. Expecting him to record more than 3.5 receptions represents the low end of his projections.
Puka Nacua More 5.5 Receptions
In the moment, it’s hard to recognize when the passing of the torch is happening, but that’s exactly what’s occurring in Los Angeles right now. For years, Cooper Kupp was regarded as one of the top receivers in the NFL. Age and natural decline have limited Kupp’s effectiveness this season, but thankfully, the Rams have been able to turn to Puka Nacua.
Nacua has cemented himself as one of the best young players in the game. Nacua made the Pro Bowl in his rookie season, and when healthy, has recaptured that form this season. In three games this year, Nacua has been targeted 17 times, resulting in 12 catches and 152 yards. Like Waddle, there’s a progression component to his anticipated success. Nacua had just one reception against the Seattle Seahawks, posting a career-worst 25.0% catch rate.
Additionally, Nacua and the Rams’ passing attack should have no problem exploiting a vulnerable Dolphins’ secondary. Over the past three games, Miami has allowed an average of 20.0 receptions per game, with six different pass-catchers pulling down at least five receptions.
Nacua will have ample opportunity to excel against the Fins. He’s a natural progression candidate and should have additional room to move while Miami prioritizes Kupp in coverage. In the end, Nacua is projected to record more than 5.5 receptions at home.
Demarcus Robinson Less 30.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s take a moment to appreciate Demarcus Robinson’s Week 9 performance for what it was: a standout, fantasy-changing performance. However, that effort was nothing if not unsustainable. Robinson has been a tertiary option in the Rams’ offense this season, and it’s improbable that he matches that production with Kupp and Nacua in the lineup.
Robinson’s nine targets, six receptions, two touchdowns, and 94 yards were all season-bests, by a wide margin. Prior to last week, the nine-year pro was averaging 2.1 receptions and 33.3 yards per game. That becomes even more concerning when we factor in Kupp and Nacua’s unavailability. More simply, Robinson wasn’t soaking up many targets when the primary receivers were out of the lineup. Therefore, it becomes increasingly unlikely that he sustains last week’s pace with both players back in action.
Prior to his outburst against the Seahawks, Robinson had totaled 72 yards on six receptions in his three previous outings. Further, he had recorded more than two receptions just twice this season. Inevitably, Robinson’s benchmarks will work back down toward the normal range, starting with tonight’s battle against the Dolphins.
Anticipated regression limits Robinson’s outlook on Monday Night Football. We’re betting that he comes up short of 30.5 receiving yards against the Dolphins.
