The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. LA Clippers – $10,000 DraftKings
Monday features a fantastic point guard battle between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and James Harden. The former has the slight edge in our models with the highest median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus projections. Gilgeous-Alexander’s shooting numbers have dipped this season compared to his last two years, but he still leads the team in scoring and assists while having the sixth-highest usage rate in the league at 32.0%.
The Thunder have an 8-2 record but lost a key piece to their team last night. Chet Holmgren suffered a fractured hip and will be sidelined for the next 8-to-10 weeks. Without Holmgren in the lineup, that will put even more pressure on Gilgeous-Alexander. Per our Trends tool, Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with a +5.89% usage rate and a +1.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus when Holmgren is off the floor this season.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado vs. Brooklyn Nets – $6,200 DraftKings
The Pelicans are decimated with injuries, and Jose Alvarado has taken full advantage of his playing time. Alvarado has started each of the last six games and is averaging 17.2 points, 5.7 assists, and a 21.1% usage rate per game during that time. He has posted a double-digit DraftKings Plus/Minus in four of his last six games. His salary continues to rise, but Alvarado is the best value available for this five-game slate.
The Pelicans are 1.5-point home underdogs against the Nets with the lowest implied total on the slate at 211.5 points. Both the Pelicans and Nets are playing at an extremely slow pace this season. Do not get carried away with this game from a fantasy standpoint other than a few pieces. One of those obviously being Alvarado who is drawing a slate-high 35% ownership and leading the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Chicago Bulls – $8,100 DraftKings
Donovan Mitchell has the lowest price tag of the season at $8,100 tonight. His production has been lacking recently, but Mitchell still holds the highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position. He continues to lead the Cavaliers in scoring and usage rate while shooting over 40% from behind the arc. Being a shooting guard, Mitchell’s peripherals have been lacking, which makes him a boom-or-bust option.
The Cavaliers are the last remaining undefeated team at 11-0. They are eight-point road favorites against the Bulls and have a slate-high 122.75 implied team total. This is a favorable matchup for Mitchell with the Bulls leading the league in pace at 105.20. The Bulls are one of four teams that are allowing over 120 points per game. Mitchell may be one-dimensional, but this is a great matchup for a ceiling performance.
Top Value: Isaiah Joe vs. LA Clippers – $3,600 DraftKings
Since the start of November, Isaiah Joe has been one of the most valuable punt plays to target. Still priced under $4,000, Joe has six straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. He has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Alvarado on this slate, and his salary makes it easy to fit into all lineup builds. During that six-game stretch, Joe has scored double-digit points in every game while shooting 42.2% from deep.
The Clippers defense has been solid defending the 3-point line, but Gilgeous-Alexander creates so much pressure on opposing defenses that Joe will still get plenty of great looks behind the arc tonight. Over 80% of Joe’s field goal attempts have come from downtown this season. He has made at least three 3-pointers in six-straight games while averaging 4.3 rebounds per game over that time. He is a great value.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram vs. Brooklyn Nets – $8,600 DraftKings
Brandon Ingram could not get anything going last game against the Magic who rank second in the league in defensive rating. He scored a season-low 11 points and had more turnovers than rebounds and assists. However, Ingram still posted a 32.4% usage rate. The Nets offer a much more favorable matchup for Ingram who will greatly benefit without Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, and Dejounte Murray tonight.
Despite having a 105.5 implied team total, Ingram is going to get plenty of opportunity for a ceiling game tonight. Our projections have Ingram at a 36.9% usage rate, which is second only to Gilgeous-Alexander for this five-game slate. At his reasonable $8,600 salary, Ingram is one of the best pay-up options to target. Ingram disappointed in this opportunity last game, but I am going right back to the well with him.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter at San Antonio Spurs – $4,500 DraftKings
Kings’ starter Kevin Huerter is coming off his best game of the season last night against the Suns. The Kings won in overtime, and Huerter stuffed the stat sheet with 17 points, seven rebounds, four assists, three steals, and one block. He finished with 41.25 DraftKings points while shooting 6-for-12 from the field and 5-for-9 from distance. Looking to stay hot tonight, Huerter is a strong value play in all formats.
A big reason why Huerter played a season-high 35 minutes last night was due to the injury to Malik Monk. The veteran shooting guard only played eight minutes and will not be suiting up tonight. That makes Huerter look even better with his 32-minute projection. He ranks third in projected Plus/Minus on the slate. With all of these value plays, the optimal build will likely be a stars and scrubs lineup tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Williams vs. LA Clippers – $7,800 DraftKings
Jalen Williams is another player who will benefit from the absence of Chet Holmgren. Without Holmgren in the lineup this season, Williams is averaging a +3.44% usage rate, which is the second-highest on the team to Gilgeous-Alexander. He will also get a significant boost to his rebounding percentage. Holmgren led the Thunder with 8.7 rebounds per game, but Williams is second on the team, averaging 6.2 per night.
The Thunder are going to be undersized in most matchups, but especially tonight against Clippers’ center Ivica Zubac, who is averaging a career-high 16.4 points and 12.7 rebounds per game. Despite being 6’5″, Williams is going to have to play much bigger than that tonight. He has one double-double this year, but with Holmgren out for the foreseeable future, Williams is going to flirt with many double-double chances.
Top Value: Tari Eason vs. Washington Wizards – $4,800 DraftKings
Despite coming off the bench, Rockets’ forward Tari Eason is having the best year of his career. He is averaging a career-high 11.8 points per game while shooting 55.2% from the field and 41.4% from behind the arc. Eason has also been fantastic on the defensive end, averaging career-highs in both steals and blocks per game. With dual forward eligibility, Eason is a strong mid-range value play in all formats.
The Rockets are a slate-high 13.5-point home favorites against the Wizards, who rank 28th in defensive rating this season. They have the second-highest implied team total, which will benefit Eason who potentially could get blowout playing time. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games while averaging 15.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game over that time. He is another great value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Sacramento Kings – $10,500 DraftKings
Leading this five-game slate in ceiling projection is Spurs’ star Victor Wembanyama. His production has been all over the map, which makes him especially valuable in tournaments. Over his last seven games, Wembanyama has three ceiling performances averaging 65.7 DraftKings points per game and four duds where he averaged just 31 DraftKings points per game. He has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer.
Rightfully so, Gilgeous-Alexander is drawing more ownership than Wembanyama for the expensive options. However, as we mentioned during this entire article, there is plenty of value to fit in both. The Kings have been a strong interior defensive unit with Domantas Sabonis, but Wembanyama can stack DraftKings points in a hurry from either side of the court. Prioritize Wembanyama in tournaments tonight.
Top Value: Evan Mobley at Chicago Bulls – $7,600 DraftKings
The Cavaliers frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are in an elite matchup against the Bulls. Due to his offensive versatility and power forward and center eligibility, Mobley gets the slight nod ahead of Allen tonight. Mobley is also coming off his best game of the season, recording a massive 23-point, 16-rebound double-double. He shot 10-for-11 from the field and finished with 54.5 DraftKings points.
The Bulls do have Nikola Vucevic in the paint, but that is about it. They are allowing a league-high 58.8 points scored in the paint this season, and that total has climbed over the last three games. The Bulls are trending down, while the Cavaliers are the hottest team in the league. This is also a strong rebounding matchup for the Cavaliers frontcourt. Allen is in play, but Mobley is the much better option tonight.
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