Winners of three of their past four, the Cincinnati Bengals can make the monumental climb back to .500 on Thursday Night Football. Standing in their way are the perennial powerhouse Baltimore Ravens, who are trying to re-assert themselves as the class of the AFC North. Usually a defensive juggernaut, the Ravens have abandoned some of their defensive responsibilities this season in favor of offensive firepower. We saw as much when these teams met earlier in the season. Baltimore rallied late to escape The Queen City as 41-28 victors. We’re anticipating a stouter effort at the outset of Week 10, with the Bengals and Ravens emphasizing defense rather than getting into another shootout.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Bengals vs. Ravens
Mike Gesicki Less 51.5 Receiving Yards
Tee Higgins’ absence from the Bengals lineup has necessitated more involvement from other pass-catchers. Specifically, we’ve seen a rise in Mike Gesicki’s involvement in Cincinnati’s offense. While he remains a primary target, it’s unlikely he maintains that unsustainable play against a Ravens’ defense that stacks up well against tight ends.
After recording 180 yards through the first six games of the season, Gesicki has nearly matched that by churning out 173 over the past two. Predictably, that has precipitated a massive leap in all of his underlying metrics. While some of it was anticipated with Higgins on the sidelines, Gesicki has reached an unsustainable plateau with his current form.
Over his last two starts, the Bengals tight end has posted a Pro Bowl-worthy 85.7% catch rate. Moreover, his 173 yards came on 12 catches, equalling a robust 14.4 yards per reception. Both of those metrics are a substantial deviation from what we’ve come to expect from Gesicki throughout his career. In seven professional seasons, the Penn State product has respective benchmarks of 64.3% and 11.1. Moreover, he was down to 10.0 yards per reception through the first six games of the season.
Inevitably, Gesicki’s metrics will fall back down to the normal range, and the Ravens can facilitate some of that regression. Last week, they held Adam Trautman to just one reception for four yards. Moreover, the last time these teams met, Gesicki was limited to 31 yards on two receptions. We’re anticipating a similar outcome on Thursday night, with the 29-year-old coming up short of 51.5 receiving yards.
Zay Flowers More 5.5 Receptions
Undoubtedly, Derrick Henry has transformed the Ravens offense. Always a run-first team, Henry has reinvigorated their attack, creating the semi-intended consequence of increased space for Baltimore’s receivers in the opponents’ secondary. Zay Flowers has taken full advantage of the opportunity and should continue his ascent against the Bengals.
While his rookie season results were nothing short of spectacular, Flowers has leveled up his play in 2024. compared to last year’s numbers, he’s seen more targets per game (7.4 vs. 6.7), hauled in more receptions per game (5.1 vs. 4.8), and has more yards per reception (14.2 vs. 11.1). Moreover, he’s looked far superior across his more recent sample. Flowers has at least seven receptions in three of his past five, surpassing the century mark in receiving yards in all but one of those contests.
While Cincinnati’s pass defense has looked better over the recent sample, it’s still not great. Last week, Jakobi Meyers torched the Bengals for 105 yards on eight receptions. In doing so, he became the sixth pass-catcher to post at least six receptions versus Cincinnati across the last three weeks.
Flowers should join the growing chorus of top-performing wide receivers versus the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. He’s cemented himself as Lamar Jackson’s preferred receiver, accumulating a meaty 27.2% target share over the last five weeks. While he could easily surpass his yardage total as well, our biggest advantage lies in backing him to exceed 5.5 receptions.
Justin Tucker Less 8.5 Kicking Points
We’re wading into kicker territory with our final selection for Thursday Night Football. For years, Justin Tucker was the NFL’s pre-eminent kicker. His 89.7% field goal percentage represents the highest mark in NFL history and he’s been named to the first or second All-Pro team in seven straight seasons. Still, we’ve seen a decline in his performance in his age-35 campaign, and we’re anticipating a more modest showing against the Bengals.
We have to give Cincinnati credit for improving its defense. A limiting factor in the early part of the season, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has his unit operating more efficiently lately. The Bengals have held three of their past four opponents to 24 points or fewer. As expected, that correlates with a decrease in productivity. On the season, opponents have averaged 342.9 total yards of offense against Cincinnati. But over the last four weeks, we’ve seen that number decrease to 314.8. Outside of the Philadelphia Eagles’ blowout win, the Bengals have held kickers to an average of 3.0 points per game over that stretch.
Now, in the autumn of his career, Tucker’s not as effective as he used to be. Between 2016 and 2021, the Ravens kicker made 93.3% of his field goal attempts and didn’t finish with a season percentage below 89.7%. Over the last three years, Tucker is down to 84.8%, bottoming out with a 78.9% mark in 2024. More concerningly, we’ve seen a sharp decline in his accuracy beyond 50 yards. Tucker has made just three of his last 10 attempts from 50+, eroding John Harbaugh’s reliance on him from distance.
Baltimore faces a stiffer challenge in putting points on the board against the Bengals. Cincinnati has tightened up its defensive play, and they’ll be ready for whatever the Ravens throw their way. Fewer points and less effective kicking should result in less than 8.5 points for Justin Tucker.
