The NBA returns after one day off Wednesday, and DraftKings’ main slate includes the first 10 games of the evening. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,500
Doncic is fresh off a season-best 71.25 DraftKings point performance vs. the Pacers on Monday. Indiana ranks fifth in pace and Doncic draws another up-tempo matchup tonight, with the Bulls ranking second in pace this season. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (236.5 points), and the Mavericks boast the largest implied team on the board by a comfortable five points (123.25 points).
The Mavericks will be without P.J. Washington (knee), and with the forward off the court this season, Doncic is generating 1.8 DraftKings PPM, mostly thanks to a massive 11.6 percentage point increase to his assist rate. Plus, when the Slovenian has competed at home and in a total of at least 235 points the last two seasons, Doncic has been incredible with 68.1 DraftKings PPG (17 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Russell Westbrook vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,000
Despite the ugly matchup vs. the Thunder and their league-best defense, the Nuggets present some of the best values on the slate, with Westbrook being the best of the bunch. Denver will be without Jamal Murray (concussion) and Aaron Gordon (calf), and with Murray inactive and Gordon only available for four minutes Monday, Westbrook started at point guard and posted 40 DraftKings points across 34 minutes vs. the Raptors.
With a 25% usage rate and a 38% assist percentage, Westbrook is scoring a strong 1.2 DraftKings PPM with both Murray and Gordon off the floor this season, via the On/Off Tool. Westbrook is amassing 38.4 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has received over 30 minutes and this $5,000 salary by no means reflects his workload tonight. In our ShotQuality projections, Westbrook is easily the top value on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Derrick White vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,900
The Celtics remain without both Jaylen Brown (hip) and Kristaps Porzingis (foot), making White is awesome target. White has made four starts with Brown and Porzingis inactive the last two seasons, and White has been excellent in those tilts, scoring 41 DraftKings PPG. With a team-high 8.3 percentage point increase to his usage rate, White is supplying 1.3 DraftKings PPG with both Brown and Porzingis off the court the last two seasons.
The Warriors rank second in defensive efficiency, but the Celtics are at home, and the Vegas oddsmakers aren’t worried about Golden State’s defense slowing down Boston, with their implied team total the second highest on the slate (118.25 points). White averaged 43.3 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with the Warriors last season, which is the type of upside he brings tonight.
Top Value: Ayo Dosunmu at Dallas Mavericks – $4,400
Dosunmu is a solid value to begin with, that would become a must-play if Zach LaVine (questionable, adductor) is out. With the veteran inactive Monday vs. the Jazz, Dosunmu entered the Bulls’ starting lineup and flourished with a season-high 40.3 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes. This wasn’t a rare occurrence either, as Dosunmu is now amassing 35.4 DraftKings PPG for the last five times LaVine has been inactive.
LaVine has a tendency to miss games when questionable, and if he is out again tonight, Dosunmu will be an easy choice.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,200
The Celtics host the Warriors tonight and this matchup almost certainly has been marked on Tatum’s calendar since the schedule was released. The reason is that Golden State HC Steve Kerr controversially benched Tatum for many games of the Paris Olympics this past summer, ultimately embarrassing the superstar. While Tatum won’t say much to the media about his frustrations with this questionable move by Kerr, Tatum should be on a mission tonight and will let his game do the talking.
On top of the extra motivation, the Celtics will be without Brown and Porzingis, opening the door for Tatum’s already huge usage rate to grow even further. With those two players off the court the last two seasons, Tatum’s usage has been at 37%, which is a 6.2 percentage point upgrade from his average. Tatum has a ceiling near 70 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections and is a sensational spend.
Top Value: Naji Marshall vs. Chicago Bulls – $3,400
Marshall is a great punt with Washington sidelined tonight. Marshall is the top candidate to start in place of Washington, and Marshall is coming off his best performance of the season, with 38.25 DraftKings points across 34 minutes vs. the Pacers. This is the type of workload Marshall should see on Wednesday, and as noted above, this contest’s total is the highest on the slate (236.5 points).
Marshall is amassing 21.9 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has logged over 25 minutes and exceeding five-times value should be an easy task for the forward.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Memphis Grizzlies – $9,000
After a quiet start to the season, James has come alive as of late, surpassing 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts. The 39-year-old is shooting a career-best 44% from beyond the arc this season, and this matchup with the Grizzlies should be a high-scoring affair. Both these clubs rank inside the top 12 in pace, and this game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (230.5 points).
James dominated Memphis for 54.2 DraftKings PPG in four matchups last season and is simply underpriced at only $9,000. Also, due note, Anthony Davis (heel) is questionable, and if the big man is out, James would receive a boost. With Davis off the court the last two seasons, James’ usage rate has increased by 5.1 percentage points.
Top Value: Josh Hart at Atlanta Hawks – $6,300
As always, Hart is seeing huge minutes this season at 36 minutes a night, resulting in 34.2 DraftKings PPG for the forward. Hart has exceeded 40 DraftKings points twice in his last four starts, and he is shooting an efficient 54% from the field this season. Ranking fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, the Hawks are one of the best matchups in basketball, and the Knicks carrying the third-highest implied team total on the slate is clear evidence (116.75 points).
Hart posted 43 DraftKings points when he last faced Atlanta in March, and he is a compelling mid-tier target tonight that brings safety and upside.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,700
Regardless of this poor matchup with the Thunder, Jokic is the No.1 play on the slate with Murray and Gordon sidelined. With the forward only available for four minutes and Murray out Monday, Jokic tallied a triple-double of 72.5 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors. When including this tilt, the center is averaging 69 DraftKings PPG sans Murray and Gordon the last two seasons (four games).
With Murray and Gordon off the court the last two seasons, Jokic’s usage rate has risen 7.6 percentage points and his assist percentage has jumped 10.7 percentage points. With these upgrades, Jokic is producing a whopping 2.0 DraftKings PPM. In addition to the insane workload, the big man will be at home tonight, where he has been 2.0 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road the last two years. Jokic’s ceiling is the highest on the slate in our ShotQuality projections by over seven DraftKings points and having shares of the center is a must tonight.
Top Value: Neemias Queta vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,200
With Brown and Porzingis out Monday, Queta received his first start of the season, and the big man recorded 22.75 DraftKings points across 23 minutes. This game was a 30-point win for Boston, and Queta saw 14.3 first-half minutes, meaning he would have seen closer to 30 minutes overall if this game stayed competitive.
Tonight’s matchup with the Warriors calls for a more competitive affair, with the Celtics only favored by six points and if Queta is starting again, he will be a tough punt play to ignore at this near minimum salary. Queta is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and 22 DraftKings PPG when he has logged at least 15 minutes the last two seasons (11 games).
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