Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Now that we’ve crossed the magical Week 5 line, we’ll be relying heavily on the data below. It’s now matchup-adjusted, which makes it fairly reliable, barring any key injuries.
The table below includes every team’s combined adjusted line yards and sack rate with their Week 9 opponent. Let’s get to it.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Atlanta Falcons OL (#1 In Adjusted Line Yards, #6 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Dallas Cowboys DL
It’s not exactly a revelation to say that the Cowboys run defense is bad, but it remains the case heading into Week 9. They rank 31st in adjusted line yards allowed and 29th in points allowed to the position.
It’s not just the Cowboys’ struggles driving it this week, though. Atlanta’s offensive line ranks top five in adjusted line yards blocked offensively. They also rank 11th in run rate over expectation, so both volume and efficiency should be there in a game they’re favored in.
The problem is projecting how much of that rushing goes to Bijan Robinson ($7,400) and how much to Tyler Allgeier ($4,900). So far this season, Robinson has roughly two-thirds of the running back opportunities but with a high degree of weekly variance. In Week 8, Allgeier only had one fewer carry than Robinson.
The Falcons passing attack is also in a solid spot, so Kirk Cousins ($6,400) and company are in play as well. With that said, the way to beat the Cowboys has been on the ground, so that’s where more of my interest is.
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Dallas Cowboys OL (#13 In Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
On the flip side, the Cowboys’ strength is clearly their passing offense. They nearly pulled off a big comeback against the 49ers by abandoning the run and peppering CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) with 17 targets last week.
That should be their plan moving forward, as the Cowboys offensive line is better at pass protection. Should doesn’t mean will, but that gives the Dallas passing attack big upside. That makes Dak Prescott ($6,300) stacks with Lamb an easy target.
Plus, the solid projection for the Falcons run game means game stacks are fully in play. The game script should cooperate with the Falcons favored, so I’ll be heavily invested in that build this week.
Carolina Panthers OL (#2 In Adjusted Line Yards, #7 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New Orleans Saints DL
Perhaps the only bright spot for the struggling Panthers is the offensive line/rushing attack. They rank third in adjusted line yards, while Chuba Hubbard ($6,500) ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards.
This week, they draw a Saints team that ranks 30th in adjusted line yards and dead last in DVOA against the run. Another bright spot is the fact that the Saints offense has put up just 18 points over the past two weeks. If that continues, that will keep the game script in a spot where Hubbard can carry a heavy load.
Much of that will come down to the Saints injury situation, so be sure to keep an eye on the News
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
New York Giants DL vs. Washington Commanders OL (#1 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
The Giants ($2,300) defense continues to be underpriced on DraftKings. They lead the league in adjusted sack rate and sacks by a considerable margin, and have picked up at least four sacks in six of eight games this year.
Relative to their price tag, that makes them a solid play. Even if they surrender a lot of points to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels ($7,500), they should still get home often enough to justify their price.
On the Commanders side, they’re in the middle of the pack in both total sacks and sack rate. My read is it’s a relatively bad offensive line that Daniels bails out with his speed. This is a rematch of the Week 2 meeting in which New York secured five sacks on Daniels.
At their price point, they’re an elite cash game option with some GPP appeal if spending up elsewhere.
Los Angeles Chargers DL vs. Cleveland Browns OL (#2 in Combined Adjusted Sack Rate)
I included the Chargers on this list partially for the opportunity to talk about my decision to use adjusted sack rate rather than pressure rate (or pass block win rate) for the pass-blocking stat of choice.
If the goal is to fairly assess line play, pressure or PBWR would be better metrics because they remove the quarterback from the equation. Sacks are as much a quarterback stat as they are a line stat. However, if the goal is to find spots where a defense is likely to put up sacks/points, it doesn’t matter whose “fault” the sack is.
Unless, of course, teams switch quarterbacks. That’s the case with the Browns, who are now starting Jameis Winston ($5,400). The Browns’ 37 sacks allowed is ten more than any other team, but 35 of those were on Deshaun Watson.
With that said, Winston has never been known for his conservative style, so it’s still a good spot for Los Angeles ($3,300). While Winston only took two last week, the Chargers pass rush ranks a bit higher than Baltimore’s, so they could get home more often.
They’re a solid spend-up option this week, especially since the field will likely be excited by the new-look Browns offense.
