As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
It was back to the standard $20 Millionaire Maker in Week 8, which meant a smaller (but still massive) field than last week’s $10. The winner this time was rick12324, with a 150-lineup portfolio. Four of those 150 finished in the top 1% of lineups, with one narrowly edging out first place by 0.6 points.
Let’s see how that lineup got there and check in on their overall player exposures.
The Lineup
The Stack
There was no true stack to speak of in this lineup. They rostered value quarterback Bo Nix, with the other piece from that game being Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard.
Quarterback has been consistently providing value this season. Running backs and wide receivers have been aggressively priced this season, making cheap quarterbacks the better Pts/Sal option. Those like Nix, who contribute heavily with their legs, make sense without a stack.
Nix obviously got there in this lineup, which survived a down game from Hubbard. I liked both players coming into the game, but playing them together didn’t make much sense. The likely game script (Broncos as heavy favorites) meant Hubbard getting there without Nix disappointing was unlikely.
I preferred playing Nix with his running back, Javonte Williams since they correlated better. Williams outscored Hubbard by just 0.1 points but was $700 cheaper, so it would’ve been a slightly better play — though clearly this lineup didn’t need it.
rick12324 cast a wide net at quarterback, rostering 20 of the 26 available starters across their portfolio.
Other Correlations
This lineup had the classic RB + team defense pairing, going with the Bills defense and running back James Cook. The game produced the ideal scenario for the stack, with the Bills winning 31-10. This lineup got more than 40 points at $10,000 combined salary, which kept them on a 200-point pace.
More importantly, both pieces were less than 3% owned in the contest. Cook specifically provided a ton of leverage, as he wasn’t among the backs in most people’s player pools. rick12324 utilized them each in about 10% of their lineups, putting him well over the field.
Like at quarterback, they had deep player pools at both positions, mixing in 21 different running backs and 22 of the 26 available defenses. This is interesting to note since a few weeks back, the opposite strategy worked. In Week 5, a 15-lineup portfolio with an extremely condensed player pool took home the top prize.
Perhaps the most important lesson here is that there isn’t one “right” way to play GPPs. Various strategies can work, and every week is a new puzzle to solve.
The Chalk
Tight end Cade Otton was hard to avoid in Week 8, with a massive projection relative to his price. The Bucs were without both their starting wideouts, leaving Otton as the only reliable member of the passing attack. The matchup with Atlanta was also a solid one.
That paid off, with Otton going for more than 7x his salary. I liked the idea of pairing Otton with another tight end (and had a solid hit with a lineup doing exactly that) to reduce overall ownership. I stand by that as a good idea, but given the low-owned pieces in this lineup, it wasn’t necessary here.
The other chalky piece in this lineup was the cheap wide receiver, Cedric Tillman. Tillman was one of a handful of backups getting starter reps at wideout this week. It was a bit of guess work figuring out which among them would be the best play, but rick12324 handled it wisely. Three of their 10 most-rostered wideouts were in the $3,000-$4,000 range.
The last chalky piece was Ja’Marr Chase, who projected well heading into the week. Through most of the week, I thought Chase and Tee Higgins doubles would be the way to go, but when Higgins popped up with another hamstring injury, Chase became a huge value. rick12324 was roughly even with the field on Chase.
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The Sleepers
Outside of the Bills stack, the notable sleeper here was McConkey. The Chargers rookie exploded for a career-best 6/122/2 line at just 3.3% ownership and $5,100 in salary. This user was roughly in line with the field on McConkey (4.7% ownership) and got lucky to have him in his otherwise strong lineups.
I personally didn’t see much of a case for McConkey coming into the week, but this is a game of randomness to a big extent. Landing on a play like that speaks to the value in shotgunning tons of options into your portfolio, though it obviously requires some luck to land on the right combination.
Beyond that, Bijan Robinson came in at a moderate 8.1% ownership. rick12324 was actually well below the field on Robinson — but this lineup could’ve won with a different back in that slot. That includes De’Von Achane, who was their most utilized player at the position. Achane finished with a higher score at a lower salary, but there were clearly multiple viable options for the position. That makes mixing and matching a sound strategy in this case.
