The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,500 DraftKings
Despite the Mavericks beating the Jazz last night, Luka Doncic had his first disappointing game of the season. He finished with 15 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists while shooting a putrid 5-for-22 from the field. Looking to bounce back tonight, the Mavericks are five-point road underdogs against the Timberwolves on the second leg of a back-to-back. Make sure Doncic is in the starting lineup tonight.
Doncic only played in nine back-to-backs last season but was still productive, averaging 29.2 points, 10.8 assists, and 9.6 rebounds per game. The price tag for Doncic continues to rise, which has impacted his ownership. On this four-game slate, Doncic is currently projected for less than 10% ownership. Getting a stud of Doncic’s caliber at these ownership projections makes him a fantastic contrarian tournament play.
Top Value: Brandin Podziemski vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $4,900 DraftKings
With Stephen Curry and De’Anthony Melton both out in the Warriors’ backcourt, Podziemski will have a significant boost to his playing time and production. Podziemski has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with point guard and shooting guard eligibility. Priced under $5,000, Podziemski is projected to play a little over 30 minutes and be one of the best value options on the entire slate.
Podziemski is off to a slow start shooting the ball this season. The sample size is small, but in his three games played, the second-year pro is shooting just 33.3% from the field and is 1-for-14 from behind the arc. Podziemski is productive even when his shot is not falling. He has eclipsed 15 DraftKings points in every game this season and had 27.25 points in one outing. Podziemski is too cheap for his role, given all the team’s injuries.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jamal Murray at Brooklyn Nets – $7,300 DraftKings
It took overtime, but the Nuggets finally got into the win column last night with a two-point victory over the Raptors. Murray stuffed the stat sheet with 17 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists for 40.75 DraftKings points. However, there was plenty of room to have an even better game, with Murray shooting just 6-20 from the field and not connecting on a 3-pointer. His price tag remains more than reasonable.
Murray has the second-highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus, giving him a nice combination of value and upside. It is only a matter of time until he has a strong shooting performance and hits his ceiling.
The Nets are also a good matchup for opposing guards. They are allowing 37.4% shooting from distance this year. This is a get-right spot for the sharpshooter tonight.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Denver Nuggets – $6,000 DraftKings
The opposite guard in this Nuggets and Nets matchup is veteran Dennis Schroder. The journeyman has found a starting role with the Nets and flourished in the first three games. He has scored 20+ points in back-to-back games while shooting over 50% from the field and 60% from downtown in both contests. Schroder’s 24% usage rate so far this season is the highest he has had since the 2018-19 season.
The Nets do have the lowest implied total at 106.25 points, but they are only 5.5-point home underdogs and will rely on Schroder to be a big part of their game plan. He and Cam Thomas are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Given the projected playing time and usage rate, Schroder is a great mid-range option. The Nuggets may be an easier matchup coming off an overtime game last night.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Utah Jazz – $8,900 DraftKings
There are several pay-up forward options that look the same on this four-game slate. However, DeRozan has been the most consistent of the bunch, scoring at least 23 points in each game this season. Playing for the Kings has not slowed down the 35-year-old. He has posted a 23.5% usage rate, which is second on the team behind only De’Aaron Fox. DeRozan has also averaged over two steals per game.
The veteran has gotten to the free throw line double-digit times in two of his three games played. He should feast against a Jazz defense that ranks 28th in defensive rating at 117.9. Domantas Sabonis and Fox will draw a majority of the ownership for the Kings in this matchup but don’t forget about DeRozan. Especially for cash games, DeRozan has displayed a consistency worth getting exposure to.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $5,500 DraftKings
Buddy Hield is another elite Warriors’ value option. In his first season with the Warriors, Hield has turned into a long-lost Splash Brother. He is shooting 52.5% from the field and 52% from behind the arc. Over 60% of his field goal attempts have come from distance. Hield has also contributed five rebounds and three assists per game.
With Curry out, Hield will be looking for his shot tonight early and often. The Pelicans have been a strong defensive team, but the sheer volume from Hield tonight will likely push him into the optimal lineup or close to it. Hield is one of the most popular plays on the slate with his guard and forward dual eligibility. At $5,500, Hield is easy to fit into all lineup builds. The Warriors will be the go-to team for value.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,000 DraftKings
When looking for ceiling and a boom or bust option, look no further than Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen. He erupted in the season opener for 35 points and nine rebounds against the Grizzlies and followed that up with two mediocre performances against the Warriors and Mavericks. The Kings are a below-average defense that plays at a faster pace than most teams. That gives Markkanen the opportunity to bounce back.
Through the first three games, the Kings have also been atrocious on the glass. They rank 29th in rebounding percentage at 46.4%. Markkanen has recorded either eight or nine rebounds in each of his first three games but has yet to capture that elusive double-double. He has a great chance for that tonight in this matchup. At $8,000, Markkanen is the best Jazz player to get exposure to for this slate.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Denver Nuggets – $5,200 DraftKings
Johnson is very similar to Hield. He has attempted the exact same amount of 3-pointers and is known for his sharpshooting. Johnson is averaging 13 points and four rebounds per game for the Nets and is their third scoring option. If Thomas or Schroder struggle, it will be Johnson who picks up the slack. At $5,200 Johnson has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position.
Johnson has not shot the ball great to start the season. He is 24% from long distance but is a career 39% perimeter shooting. Expect Johnson’s numbers to regress back to the mean. Whether that happens tonight is a larger question. The Nuggets have been great at limiting opposing 3-pointers to start the season — which is why Johnson should be reserved for tournaments only — but he is still a strong value play.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Brooklyn Nets – $11,300 DraftKings
Leading our NBA models in projected ceiling is Nuggets’ 3-time MVP Nikola Jokic. There is plenty of value to get up to Jokic’s $11,300 salary, but he is still only coming in at 15% projected ownership for this four-game slate. Jokic put together his second-straight 40-point game last night while shooting 18-for-27 from the field. It was also his third-straight game where Jokic recorded 60 or more DraftKings points.
The Nets do not have the girth to contain Jokic. Nic Claxton is a good shot-blocker but has only surpassed five rebounds in one game this season and barely weighs over 200 lbs. Jokic has a fantastic opportunity to put up his third-straight 40-point game tonight. The only two main pay-up options are Jokic and Doncic. The edge goes to Jokic based on the matchup and higher projected ceiling.
Top Value: Domantas Sabonis vs. Utah Jazz – $9,300 DraftKings
$9,300 may not seem like a true low-priced value, but even at this price tag, Sabonis is arguably the best play on the slate. He is drawing the most ownership at 38%, which is why Jokic is only drawing 15%. Playing Sabonis and Jokic together provides so much upside for your lineup. Sabonis also has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. This matchup sets up perfectly for the versatile big man.
Through the first three games, the Jazz have allowed 53.3 points per game in the paint, which is the fifth-highest in the league. Sabonis has recorded a double-double in seven of his last eight games, and in the only game he didn’t, he poured in 42 points. He has recorded a double-double and triple-double already this year, picking up right where he left off. Prioritize Sabonis in all lineup builds.
