Two of the most insatiable fanbases will be at each other’s necks Sunday night, with the Dallas Cowboys traveling out west for a date with the San Francisco 49ers. There’s no understating the importance of this NFC showdown, as both franchises desperately need a win. Fresh off a bye, the Cowboys’ last game ended in a 47-9 disaster against the Detroit Lions. Similarly, the Niners were once again humbled by the Kansas City Chiefs, dropping them to 3-4 on the season. The Cowboys and 49ers both face uphill climbs in their respective divisions. One more loss could make it an insurmountable climb for either team. As such, we’re expecting both teams to be at their best under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football.
This article will discuss two or more of my favorite NFL pick’ems from Sleeper Fantasy, where you can use Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Sleeper Fantasy Picks for Cowboys vs. 49ers
Jalen Tolbert Less 3.5 Receptions
Ineffective offensive play has kept the Cowboys from reaching their ceiling. Dallas has been held below 300 yards of total offense in two of its last three, and that’s unlikely to change against a fierce 49ers defense. Jalen Tolbert has been reliable when called upon, but he’s been overlooked in Dak Prescott’s progressions more recently.
Tolbert’s best game this season came back in Week 5 when he was targeted 10 times against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, that was the exception to an otherwise pretty reliable rule. Unquestionably, CeeDee Lamb remains the top pass-catching option for the Cowboys, but several other players have commanded a more prominent role than Tolbert.
Last time out, Lamb, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Brooks, and Rico Dowdle absorbed more targets than Tolbert, and that’s unlikely to change in Week 8. Tolbert has seen more than five targets just once over the Cowboys’ last four games, falling below 3.5 receptions in two of those contests. Moreover, the former third-round pick has an insignificant 14% target share across the four-game sample, underscoring his limited role moving forward.
In addition to Tolbert’s limited usage metrics, the Cowboys face a daunting task in breaking through San Francisco’s pass defense. The 49ers allow the seventh-lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks and the 11th-fewest completions. The odds are stacked against Tolbert in this one, and we expect the Cowboys receiver to come up short of 3.5 receptions.
Jordan Mason More 9.5 Receiving Yards
The Christian McCaffrey saga appears to be dragging into at least next week, meaning Jordan Mason remains the lead back out of the Niners backfield. His shoulder injury wasn’t a limiting factor in last week’s loss to the Chiefs, and with Brandon Aiyuk now on the shelf, Mason’s role only appears to be growing in Week 8.
Mason played a season-high 86.2% of the snaps in Week 7. While his main responsibilities are centered on the ground game, Mason has become a more reliable pass-catching option for Brock Purdy. The second-year pro has at least two targets in four of his last five games, totaling eight receptions on 10 targets. Moreover, Mason has at least nine receiving yards in all five outings, while averaging 15.4 yards per game across that sample.
The Cowboys pass defense has been abysmal this season. They rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed, watching that average sink over their last three games. Running backs have accounted for a hefty portion, a trend that should continue into tonight. In Week 6, Jahmyr Gibbs hauled in three catches for 28 yards, becoming the eighth running back to eclipse 14 receiving yards against the Cowboys this season. Alvin Kamara set the high mark with 65, but the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns both had multiple rushers burn Dallas for substantive gains through the air.
Mason is primed for another substantive workload, and we’re betting he’ll be called upon more frequently in the passing game. Considering the sorry state of the Cowboys’ rush defense, he could easily surpass his rushing-plus-receiving-yard total, but the most playable advantage is backing him to exceed 9.5 receiving yards at home.
