We’ve got a good one on Sunday Night Football in Week 8, with the Cowboys traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. These were two of the best teams in the NFC last season, but both squads are off to subpar starts in 2024. The 49ers are listed as 4.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 47.0.
Dallas is coming off a bye week in Week 7, but they were humiliated the last time they took the field. They also lost a blowout on Sunday Night Football in San Francisco last season, so expect them to be fully motivated for this contest.
The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl last season, but they’ve won just three of their first seven games. They’re dealing with multiple key injuries on offense, so it’s possible that they never truly get rolling in 2024. Still, only the Lions currently have better odds to win the NFC across the various sportsbooks.
Which of these squads will turn their season around in Week 8? Let’s dive in.
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Jordan Mason has been a legit league-winner in fantasy football this season. He was either a late-round pick or undrafted in most fantasy leagues, but the injury to Christian McCaffrey has turned into a saga. He’s yet to take the field this season, and it’s unclear when he’ll ultimately return to action.
Mason has taken full advantage of McCaffrey’s absence. He started the year with a bang, racking up at least 20.4 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. However, he’s come back to reality since then. He’s been held below 10 fantasy points in each of his past three outings, resulting in a negative Plus/Minus in each.
Can Mason get things turned around vs. the Cowboys? It’s certainly possible. Their defense has been a disaster this season, particularly against the run. They’re dead last in run defense EPA by a wide margin, and they’re still without Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence.
With the 49ers down multiple receivers, this seems like a prime spot to #EstablishIt. Mason is expensive across the industry, especially on DraftKings, but he has significant upside in this spot.
It has been a forgettable season for CeeDee Lamb through his first six games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus merely once, and his numbers are down basically across the board.
From a utilization standpoint, Lamb was one of the busiest receivers in football last season, posting a 30% target share and 37% air-yards share. While he has maintained the team lead in those areas this season, he’s down to just 23% and 27%, respectively.
The good news is that Lamb’s usage is at least trending in the right direction. He has a target share of at least 31% in two of his past three games, including a season-high 33% in his last outing. He did that despite a 78% route participation, which was down due to a blowout. Lamb was actually targeted on 38% of his routes run, which is extremely encouraging.
The 49ers are known for being a strong defensive team, but they haven’t been nearly as good in that department over the past two seasons. If Lamb’s target share continues to hover around 30%, there’s no reason he can’t succeed in this spot.
Deebo Samuel is the last man standing in the 49ers’ receiver room. He’s not even at 100%, as he’s dealing with an illness that caused him to miss the second half of last week’s contest and landed him in the hospital. He’s officially questionable, but Kyle Shanahan seemed hopeful that he would be able to suit up.
As long as Samuel is active, he should benefit from the team’s injury situation. Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year, while Jauan Jennings is doubtful to suit up. That leaves Samuel as the clear leader of the WR group.
Samuel ultimately grades out as the weakest option in this tier, but he still has some appeal in this matchup. He should see a bump in opportunities as a pass catcher, and he should be successful with his usual handful of carries.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The two quarterbacks in this contest headline this price range. Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott were both MVP candidates last season, but both are dealing with some questions heading into this matchup.
Let’s start with Purdy. The big question for him is can he survive without an elite supporting cast? That’s always been the knock on Purdy. He was the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, so he has more than his fair share of doubters.
Purdy’s numbers this season have taken a major step backward. His touchdown rate is down to 4.2% after sitting at 7.0% or better in his first two seasons. His interception rate is a career-worst 3.2%, while his adjusted yards per attempt are down to 7.90. Purdy led the league with a 9.92 mark last season, so it’s been a pretty significant dropoff.
However, while his efficiency is down, he’s maintained respectable fantasy numbers. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games. Even in last week’s three-interception game vs. the Chiefs, Purdy still managed to crack 20 fantasy points. He’s doing a bit more with his legs this season, averaging 22 rushing yards per game while adding two touchdowns. That’s as many as he had all of last season.
Add in a strong matchup vs. the Cowboys, and it’s not a huge shock that Purdy leads the slate in median and ceiling projection. That’s typical for a quarterback – especially a home favorite – but Purdy might not carry the ownership he deserves because of the narrative. That makes him an ideal target.
As for Prescott, he’s been feast or famine this season. In the two games where he’s returned positive value, he’s managed 22.38 and 32.86 DraftKings points. In the other four, he’s been at 16.74 or lower. That includes a horrific 5.22 DraftKings points in his last start vs. the Lions, who limited him to 178 scoreless yards with two interceptions.
Prescott’s price tag is way down from its peak of $10,800, but it’s tough to make a buy-low argument in this spot. He’s a road underdog, which has historically been his worst split. He’s averaged a -1.48 Plus/Minus when playing on the road, and that figure drops to -3.01 as a road dog (per the Trends tool).
The 49ers defense has also been better against the pass than the run this season, so it’s not the ideal spot for the Cowboys quarterback.
Like Samuel, George Kittle is another player who should see a significant boost in value for the shorthanded 49ers. He’s already been more involved than he was last season, posting a 24% target share through his first seven outings, and that number could tick up even higher moving forward.
Kittle also remains one of the team’s top threats around the goal line. He failed to find the end zone last week, but he’s still managed five scores over his past five contests. Overall, Kittle has cracked 20 DraftKings points in three of his past five outings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them.
Given the 49ers’ struggles against the run, it makes sense to target someone in the Cowboys backfield. Unfortunately, picking the right option is easier said than done. Rico Dowdle has been serving as the top guy of late, but he was basically non-existent in the team’s last outing. He played on just 29% of the snaps and handled just 31% of the team’s carries.
That could just be a one-week outlier in a game where the team was getting blown out. That said, Dowdle hasn’t been particularly efficient this season, and the team is expected to have Dalvin Cook active for the first time. Dowdle is still the most likely candidate to lead this backfield vs. the 49ers, but he’s way too expensive at $8,000 on DraftKings. He’s a bit more reasonable at $10,500 on FanDuel, but that still makes him a bit overpriced.
Speaking of overpriced. I have no idea why Isaac Guerendo is all the way up to $7,000 on DraftKings. He filled in admirably in the week where Mason was limited with an injury, but he returned to just five snaps last week vs. the Chiefs. He’s unplayed at that salary, and he has the worst projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Like most of the Cowboys, Jake Ferguson is coming off a dreadful showing in his last game. However, he had been a pretty steady source of fantasy production before then. He had at least 11.9 DraftKings points in his three previous games, and he handled at least seven targets in each contest. He’s a very reasonable bounceback target in this matchup.
Jalen Tolbert has taken over as the Cowboys’ No. 2 receiver with Brandin Cooks on the shelf. He had a season-high 98% route participation in his last outing, and while he didn’t turn that into much production, it still gives him an optimistic outlook moving forward. Ricky Pearsall made his NFL debut last week, and it was much larger than the 49ers were hoping. The in-game absences of Samuel and Aiyuk forced Pearsall into an 84% route participation, and he responded with an 18% target share. He seems like the most likely replacement for Aiyuk, which gives him plenty of appeal in an offense with plenty of upside.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Cowboys defense is projected for the least ownership of the group, but it leads the quartet in projected Plus/Minus.
- KaVontae Turpin ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Turpin isn’t on the field as much as you’d expect for a player in this price range, but he’s been targeted on 33% of his routes in back-to-back weeks. He’s a gadget player, but he does appear to have a role in the Cowboys offense.
- Ronnie Bell ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – The injuries to Aiyuk and Jennings will open up opportunities for a handful of 49ers receivers, but Bell appears to be near the bottom of the pecking order. He had just a 38% route participation last week.
- Chris Conley ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Conley had a 73% route participation last week, putting him second at the position behind Pearsall. That didn’t result in a ton of opportunities, but he did see an end-zone target.
- Ezekiel Elliott ($2,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Elliott is way too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s in the conversation at $2,400 on DraftKings. I’d much rather target him than Dowdle at their respective price tags.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Juszczyk will likely see a target or two, and he did manage to punch in a short touchdown two weeks ago.
- Jalen Brooks ($1,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Brooks is the more conventional No. 3 receiver for the Cowboys, and he had a 14% target share in his last game.
- Dalvin Cook ($1,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Given how ineffective the other Cowboys’ runners have been, it should shock no one if Cook earns a role immediately out of the gates.
- Hunter Luepke ($400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Luepke has played on pass-catching downs out of the Cowboys’ backfield, which gives him just a smidge of upside if you think they’ll be playing from behind.
