Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Trey Palmer ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) & Jalen McMillan ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
The Buccaneers’ remaining receives headline a strong group of value options at the position in Week 8. The team lost both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to injury in Week 7, and with the game being played on Monday Night Football, the DFS sites didn’t have the opportunity to price up the remaining options. Palmer and McMillan stand out as the top two options, while Sterling Shepard ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) is also in the discussion.
The bigger question is – which player should you target? Playing multiple Bucs’ pass-catchers is certainly possible, especially with the way Baker Mayfield has been spinning it this season. The matchup vs. the Falcons is also a good one, with Atlanta ranking 24th in pass defense EPA.
If you’re only going to play one, Palmer gets the slight edge. He’s the cheapest of the bunch – especially on FanDuel – but he led the trio with an 81% route participation last week. McMillan did have the edge from a target perspective, but his route participation was a more modest 60%.
Ultimately, Palmer and McMillan should both be plenty busy on Sunday, while Shepard should continue to serve as the team’s No. 3 option. Palmer leads the position group in projected Plus/Minus across the industry, while McMillan is second on DraftKings and fifth on FanDuel.
Tyreek Hill ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Hill figures to be the highest-owned receiver this week, and it’s pretty easy to see why. After toiling for the past four contests with a combination of Skylar Thompson, Snoop Huntley, and Tim Boyle at quarterback, Hill is going to have Tua Tagovailoa throwing balls to him vs. the Cardinals.
That makes his price tag across the industry feel like a joke. He was priced as high as $8,700 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel to start the year, so his price has decreased by approximately -$2,000 on both sites. That has nothing to do with Hill himself but rather his quarterback’s inability to get him the ball. Hill scored 29.0 DraftKings points in his only full game with Tua this season, so he should immediately revert to being a high-end WR1 for fantasy purposes.
This also stands out as an elite spot. The Cardinals are exploitable defensively, ranking 30th in pass defense EPA, and Tagovailoa tends to do his best work as a home favorite early in the season. That production translates to his top receiver. In his last six pre-December home games with Tagovailoa at quarterback, Hill has scored 29.0, 33.6, 28.2, 31.3, 35.1, and 33.7 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool). Expect a big-time bounce back.
Tee Higgins ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Ja’Marr Chase has been a big-play specialist for the Bengals this season, but Higgins has actually been their more consistent producer. He’s posted a target share of at least 32% in four straight games, and he’s averaged a 33% target share and 41% air yards share over that time frame. For comparison, Chase is at just 26% and 33%, respectively, over the span.
With that in mind, there’s no reason that Higgins should be approximately -$2,000 cheaper than Chase across the industry. The big difference is that Chase has six touchdown catches on the season compared to just three for Higgins. As a result, Chase has drastically outperformed his expected fantasy production (19.7 PPR points per game vs. 12.3 expected), while Higgins has been much less fortunate (16.2 actual vs. 15.5).
Add it all up, and Higgins looks like a strong value in a solid matchup vs. the Eagles. That game has the second-highest total of the week at 48.0 points, and the Eagles defense has been exploitable since the middle of last season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)
The Lions have the top implied team total of the week at 28.25 points as they take on the Titans as massive favorites. The Lions have employed a run-heavy approach all season, and they could certainly go that route once again vs. Tennessee. However, the Titans have been much more vulnerable against the pass (20th in EPA) than the run (fourth), so they might air it out a bit more than anticipated.
Even in the Lions’ run-first attack, St. Brown has still provided solid fantasy results. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, including 24.2 FanDuel points last week vs. the Vikings. He caught all eight of his targets for 112 yards, and he also found the end zone for the fourth consecutive week.
St. Brown remains the clear focal point of the Lions’ passing attack, racking up a 30% target share through their first six games. That’s good enough to make him the eighth-highest-scorer at the position on a per-game basis.
St. Brown is worth considering in cash games on FanDuel, where it’s typically much easier to accommodate a big salary. He also stands out as underpriced relative to his DraftKings salary, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Jaylen Waddle ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Hill remains the clear No. 1 in Miami, but everything that applies to him for this week can also be applied to Waddle. Like Hill, Waddle had a solid showing in his only full game with Tagovailoa this season, racking up 109 yards on five catches.
His target share has been down this season, but he did post a 94% route participation last week. That was his top mark of the year, and it should propel him to better numbers with a real quarterback in the lineup.
Ultimately, the Dolphins have had one of the most explosive offenses in football with Tagovailoa under center over the past few years. There’s enough to go around for both receivers to eat at their current salaries.
Ladd McConkey ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
McConkey has missed the first two days of practice this week, so his status for Sunday’s game vs. the Saints is definitely up in the air. However, if he does suit up, he’s a strong tournament option at a minimal salary across the industry.
The Chargers haven’t thrown the ball a ton this season, but McConkey has been their clear top option when they do take to the air. He has a 25% target share for the year, which is an elite figure for a receiver in this price range. Justin Herbert is also coming off his best game of the season last week, throwing for 349 yards vs. the Cardinals.
The Chargers offense is in another great spot in Week 8. They’re taking on the Saints, who have been nothing short of a disaster defensively over the past two weeks. They allowed 594 yards and 51 points to the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and the Broncos managed 33 points and 387 yards against them last week.
Both teams have run all over the Saints, so the Chargers could certainly lean on J.K. Dobbins in this spot. But if they do throw a bit more than expected, McConkey could be the biggest beneficiary. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup sims more than any other receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Drake London ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
London was expected to make the leap to fantasy superstardom this season, and after a disappointing Week 1, he’s basically done exactly that. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s the No. 9 receiver in PPR points per game for the year.
London’s best game of the season came against the Buccaneers, finishing with 36.4 DraftKings points on 12 receptions, 154 yards, and a touchdown. He draws the same matchup again this week, so another big performance could certainly be in the offing.
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Demario Douglas ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
With the Buccaneers receivers, Cedric Tillman, and possibly Jake Bobo drawing plenty of interest at the bottom of the pricing spectrum, Douglas could be overlooked vs. the Jets. That would be a mistake.
Douglas has quietly been a target monster of late. He had a 28% target share in Week 5 and a 30% mark in Week 6, but he sat out the second half of last week’s game with an illness. However, when he was on the field, he was still targeted on 30% of his routes run. In other words, he’s the clear No. 1 option in the Patriots’ passing attack, which has shown signs of life since making the switch to Drake Maye.
The matchup vs. the Jets isn’t ideal, but the Jets haven’t been nearly as intimidating defensively as they were the past two years. They’re also dealing with a host of injuries in the secondary, so it’s a better spot than it seems on paper.
Amari Cooper ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
The Bills wasted little time getting their shiny new toy involved on offense. Cooper played on just 35% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, but he still saw a healthy five targets. He responded with four catches, 66 yards, and a touchdown, and his 16.6 DraftKings points was his second-best mark of the season.
Ultimately, Cooper was targeted on an eye-popping 42% of his routes run vs. the Titans. That’s probably more than what you should expect to see moving forward, but a target share of 30% or more is within the realm of possibility.
Cooper should see a solid uptick in snaps this week, making him a very interesting option for tournaments. He’s projected for less than six percent ownership on DraftKings, but he has a much higher ceiling than his current salary suggests.
D.J. Moore ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Moore won’t be contrarian on FanDuel, where his $6,600 price tag is criminally low. However, he’s projected for just 8.4% ownership on DraftKings. His optimal lineup rate is closer to 10%, so he’s providing a bit of value for tournaments.
Moore has more competition for targets this season after the team acquired Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze, but he’s still their top option in the passing game. He has a 26% target share for the year, and he eclipsed 30 DraftKings points two weeks ago vs. the Panthers.
Caleb Williams has made great strides in recent weeks, and he figures to be one of the more popular quarterback options on the slate. Pairing him up with his top pass-catcher could be a nice way to increase your correlation and also your diversification.
A.J. Brown ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Brown missed a few games with an injury this season, but he has been an absolute target hog when on the field. He had a 33% target share in his first game of the year, and he’s been at 38% and 45% in two games since returning to the lineup. He ultimately has at least 89 receiving yards and a touchdown in all three outings despite the Eagles being one of the lower pass-volume teams in football.
The Eagles might not have that luxury this week. They’re taking on the Bengals, who are capable of putting plenty of points on the scoreboard. Jalen Hurts might have to air it out a bit more than usual, and if that’s the case, Brown could be looking at a monster game.
